Picking NFL Week 4

How I did last week: 10-6

One Brian Urlacher forced fumble away from the 11-5 week I was craving.

Record on the season: 28-20

Gotta to get above 60 percent...

49ers at Falcons: Three games in and it's reaching debacle level in San Francisco (where offensive coordinator Jimmy Raye was let go this week). Not the best time to face a team that beat you 45-10 last year and is coming off a big division win in New Orleans. Don't look now Niners fans, but with the Eagles coming to town next week, you could be 0-5 in two weeks time and your season finished before we hit mid-October. Falcons.

Jets at Bills: The Jets are already back on track, they don't need this powder-puff of a fixture right now. But they'll take it. Jets.

Ravens at Steelers: I think this is the game where not having Ben Roethlisberger under center finally catches up with the Steelers. Yes, Charlie Batch played well and got a victory against Tampa Bay. But swept under the rug were the two interceptions he threw and his second touchdown pass to Mike Williams which really should have been a third pick. Under a lot more pressure against the Ravens, he'll make more mistakes. Pittsburgh's defense will keep the game close, but Baltimore will score just enough points to triumph. Ravens.

Panthers at Saints: Looking for a coach on the hot seat? Panthers head man John Fox fits the bill. Fox's job was most likely saved by the Panthers going 4-1 in their last five games last season, thanks in part to Matt Moore's emergence. But Moore regressed this season and lost his starting job to rookie Jimmy Clausen. All of a sudden, Carolina (0-3) looks like one of the league's worst teams and Fox like a dead man walking. Saints.

Broncos at Titans: Everyone knows about Chris Johnson, but here's a stat you probably didn't know about Tennessee: their defense has allowed an average of 14 points per game so far this season, which is third fewest in the NFL (behind only the Steelers and Chiefs (both unbeaten, by the way)). If the D can keep that up, the Titans are going to win a lot of games this year. Titans.

Bengals at Browns: Can't believe I actually picked a Bengals game right last week. I think that makes me 1-189 all time in Cincinnati picks. Now let's see if I can get a streak started. Bengals.

Lions at Packers: Committing 18 penalties for 152 yards in a single game (as Green Bay did against Chicago on Monday night) is a pretty fail-proof way of making sure a team doesn't live up to its vast potential. The Packers have frequently been one of the most penalized team in the NFL during the Mike McCarthy era. But after hearing McCarthy harp on about the problem all week, they'll straighten it out for at least a couple games. Packers.

Seahawks at Rams: Can you believe that three NFC West teams (including these two) actually won last week? Could be a while before that happens again...The Seahawks have looked very strong in their two home games, but will need to cash in some road wins to be a playoff team. However, all of a sudden, playing the Rams doesn't look like the guaranteed W that it was last season (two of Seattle's five wins last season came at the expense of St. Louis). Not sure about this one. Seahawks.

Colts at Jaguars: Rough outing last week for Jacksonville and, with the Colts rolling into town, it won't get any easier this week. Colts.

Texans at Raiders: Sebastian Janikowski didn't look worth that $16 million contract when he missed a 32-yard gamewinner against Arizona did he? It's not going to be easy to be the highest paid placekicker in NFL history when you're only hitting 61.5% of your field goals on a team that requires you to kick as much as the Raiders do (six times against Arizona). Sometimes those big contracts aren't all they're cracked up to be. Just ask Big Albert Haynesworth. Texans.

Cardinals at Chargers: The Chargers have lost two very similar games. In both: they: a/ were playing away from San Diego but heavily favored, b/ fell behind early, c/ started making a comeback, d/ ultimately fell just short. I don't think they'll need to make a comeback at home against a team that should have lost to Oakland. Chargers.

Redskins at Eagles: It surprises me that Donovan McNabb's return to Philly didn't make it to either of the week's showcase games, on Sunday or Monday night. McNabb looks good this season and is eager to stuff years of criticism down Eagles fans' throats (not a direct quote). Couple that with Michael Vick getting back to passing and running for touchdowns and earning NFC offensive player of the month for September, and you have a mouthwatering matchup on your hands. Most of the country (with the exceptions of the Arizona and San Diego areas) will watch this shootout that really could go either way. Eagles.

Bears at Giants: I think even the most die-hard Bears fans would admit Chicago has had its fair share of luck this season (see Calvin Johnson's catch that wasn't in Week 1, and two Packers picks of Jay Cutler wiped out by penalties last Monday). Playing the Giants at a time when they appear to be imploding is a pretty big slice of luck in itself. Could New York really start 0-3 in its brand new stadium? Bears.

Patriots at Dolphins: If the Buffalo Bills can score 30 points and put up 374 yards of offense (no typos there, I promise, I double-checked) on the Patriots defense, then the Dolphins should be able to move the ball on them too. On the other side of the ball, the Miami defense will hold Tom Brady and co. under 22 points. Dolphins.