Picking NFL Week 10

How I did last week: 10-3

It's nice to finally feel like I actually know something.

Record on the Season: 75-55

Fingers crossed, this is where I start my Oakland Raiders-like roll.

Bengals at Colts: Carson, your time is almost up. Colts.

Jets at Browns: Could the Browns really upset the Saints, the Patriots and the Jets in three straight games? Well, with the Jets recent offensive's struggles, it could happen. But I say New York's top five run-defense will load the box to focus on shutting Peyton Hillis down and dare Colt McCoy to beat Darrelle Revis, Antonio Cromartie in one-on-one matchups on the outside. And that will be too tall an order for the rookie QB. Jets.

Vikings at Bears: Respective records say the Bears should win this comfortably. But after Minnesota's pass rush (and especially Jared Allen) finally got going last week – they picked up 6 sacks against Arizona and Allen got 2.5 of those – I see them having a very good day against Chicago offensive line. Vikings.

Titans at Dolphins: Kerry Collins vs. Chad Pennington...What is this, preseason ball? Titans.

Texans at Jaguars: Two of the NFL's worst five defenses should yield plenty of yards for running backs Arian Foster and Maurice Jones-Drew, but Jacksonville's will come up with just a couple more stops. Jaguars.

Lions at Bills: Call me crazy but, with Matthew Stafford out and the Bills tip-toeing closer to a victory every week, I think this is the week Buffalo wins its first 2010 game. Bills.

Panthers at Buccaneers: If the Bucs have done one thing well this season, it's beat bad teams. They're 4-0 against teams with losing records (and 0-3 against winning teams) and I see no reason for that trend to turn around against Carolina. Bucs.

Chiefs at Broncos: Todd Haley has got to be in the running for coach of the year. He's already won more games (5) than he did all year last season (4). So often talk of rebuilding a franchise rings hollow (just ask Buffalo fans) but for Kansas City, Haley is really doing it. That being said, the Chiefs can't afford to lose this important divisional game and allow the streaking Chargers or Raiders to get any closer in the AFC West. Chiefs.

Rams at 49ers: Troy Smith produced some magic in London two weeks ago to lead a 49ers comeback against Denver, but whether he can repeat the trick remains to be seen. The Rams actually feature a top ten defense, in terms of yards allowed, this season. They'll give Smith some trouble. Rams.

Cowboys at Giants: I think the Cowboys will play noticeably better this week for Jason Garrett, now that Wade Philips is gone. But the Giants are on a tear right now, they're playing at home and John Kitna isn't scaring anybody. Giants.

Seahawks at Cardinals: It feels like these two just played each other. Actually they did, only three weeks ago. The Seahawks won on that occasion – 22-10 in Seattle – but neither team has won a game since. The NFC West is so bad I almost feel like the Cardinals will win just to keep the division picture murky. But speaking of murky, how about that Arizona quarterback situation? (Can't say I didn't call it) Seahawks.

Patriots at Steelers: I'm predicting a big bounce-back week for the Patriots in this one. The Steelers didn't impress in their two prime time appearances in Weeks 8 and 9, with a 1-1 record which could have easily been an 0-2 record but for Cincinnati's dreadful start last Monday. Their offense will struggle to score as many points as New England's. Patriots.

Eagles at Redskins: Things were a lot more fun in Washington for Donovan McNabb last time he played against his old team. After his controversial benching in the final two minutes of the Redskins last game against Detroit and the slightly ridiculous media response, his relationship with coach Mike Shanahan will be under constant scrutiny in coming weeks. Eagles.

Picking NFL Week 9

How I did last week: 7-6

Peyton Manning and Clint Session helped me squeak another winning week.

Record on the season: 65-52

Boy, that's a lot of losses.

Chargers at Texans: I badly want to pick Texans because I've been burned by the Chargers poor form away from Qualcomm Stadium so many times this season. But Houston's defense gives up a ton of points (a minimum of 24 in every game they've played), and I think Philip Rivers will have a monster day against their weak secondary. Chargers.

Cardinals at Vikings: Two teams with very sticky quarterback situations will try to establish the run to win the game. Give me the one with Adrian Peterson running the ball. Vikings.

Saints at Panthers: Over the last two years, the Saints have made a habit of underperforming in games against unfancied opponents just like this one. So I expect this matchup to be much closer than everyone thinks after the Saints played well against Pittsburgh. But could they really play down to Carolina's level enough to lose to them?? Saints.

Patriots at Browns: I'm officially jumping on the New England bandwagon. Their defense, which was supposed to be very bad, has in fact taken great strides this season while their offense, with or without Randy Moss, has continued to roll. Best team in the league eight weeks. Patriots

Bucs at Falcons: Be wary of Bucs corner Aqib Talib, Matt Ryan. He'll be waiting for that deep ball you like to throw to Roddy White. Falcons.

Bills at Bears: Unfortunately for Buffalo, they don't have the pass rushing weapons to get after the Chicago's biggest weakness, its offensive line. The Bills rank 25^th in the league in sacks with 11, and the Bears have usually found a way to win games when their offensive line isn't completely overpowered. Bears.

Dolphins at Ravens: The Ravens have only one game by more than 7 points all year. The Dolphins have only once by more than 5 all season. Expect a squeaker, folks. Ravens.

Jets at Lions: Going with the upset in this one. Sure the Jets can't possibly be as bad on offense as they were last week but I think Detroit can score the points to keep up with them. A combination of injuries and a big contract appear to have slowed Darelle Revis down a step or two this season. Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson might just pick on him a little bit. Lions.

Giants at Seahawks: Seattle's undefeated record in home games will be severely tested by a New York team that rebounded from a poor 1-2 start to win four straight before its last week. The key matchup in this one will be the Seahawks offensive line against New York's impressive array of pass-rushers, because, as you may have heard, Matt Hasselbeck took 8 sacks last week. And I think the bruising will continue Sunday. Giants.

Colts at Eagles: Michael Vick may give the Colts fits with his legs, but Peyton Manning's arm will terrify the Eagles lackluster secondary. Colts.

Chiefs at Raiders: I love most everything the Chiefs have been doing this season, but after what has happened the last two weeks (reminder: Oakland won their two games by a combined 75 points and I picked against them both times), how am I not going to pick Raiders in front of their home crowd? Raiders.

Cowboys at Packers: Hah. If you think there's any chance of me picking the Cowboys again after last week's performance until they've actually won about five games, you're sadly mistaken. Just on principle if nothing else. Packers.

Steelers at Bengals: Can't see the Steelers losing two primetime games in a row, especially against an underachieving Bengals team that has lost four straight games. Cincinnati's dominance of the AFC North looks more like a one year fluke every time a week goes by this season. Steelers.

Picking NFL Week 8

How I did last week: 8-6.

Not exactly clairvoyant (I picked the Broncos, who only lost by 45 points) but I'll always take a winning week any day.

Record on the season: 58-46

Inching (and that's no exaggeration) up towards 60 percent on my picks. That would be a nice number to hit.

Bills at Chiefs: The play of quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick has given hope to Buffalo fans. Hope at least that they might win one game at some point this season. Fitzpatrick quarterback rating on the season is 102.2, second only to Peyton Manning's, believe it or not. Talk about shining in obscurity. So yes, I predict the Bills will win a game this season, it just won't be against the upstart Chiefs at Arrowhead on Sunday. Chiefs.

Panthers at Rams: With Matt Moore suddenly back in form, this actually looks like a interesting game because Moore was so effective at running Carolina's offense when he started last year. But last year is last year, and Sam Bradford and the Rams organization is turning it around in 2010. Rams.

Broncos at 49ers: Call it a leap of faith but I like former Heisman winner Troy Smith getting the start ahead of David Carr at quarterback this week. I never felt that Smith got a fair shot at the starting job in Baltimore. But his main job on Sunday will be handing off to Frank Gore, who has to have a big game against the disappearing act that is Denver run's defense. 49ers

Redskins at Lions: Matthew Stafford's back. Great news for the Lions, but there's bound to be a bit of rustiness for the second-year man on Sunday. The Redskins have specialized in playing close games this year, and rustiness costs you in close games. Redskins.

Packers at Jets: Green Bay showed some signs of life against Minnesota last week after a disappointing 3-3 start. But the Jets have shown this season that they do many different things well. On top of that they're at home and have had a bye to rest up for this one. Jets.

Dolphins at Bengals: I liked Cincinnati in this one until I found out this nugget: the Bengals have only one fully fit cornerback, rookie Brandon Ghee, going into Sunday's game. Against a team with a big target like Brandon Marshall and one of the league's best slot receivers, Davone Bess, that's not great news. Dolphins.

Jaguars at Cowboys: This game has redemption victory written all over it for Dallas. Starting quarterback lost for the season, playoffs all but gone, ditto for the head coach, a furious owner, and players who want to prove they're better than the product they've been putting out on the field for the season's first seven weeks. Jon Kitna will pass for minimum 300 yards, and the Cowboys defense will come up with some big takeaways. Cowboys.

Titans at Chargers: If last Sunday's game against the Eagles proved anything, it's that the Titans doesn't need Chris Johnson to put points on the board. Even with Johnson being held to 66 yards, they still scored 37 points on Philly. On top of that, in terms of points allowed, the Titans D is much better than the Chargers. Titans.

Buccaneers at Cardinals: I wonder if a bookie would take a bet on third string Cardinals quarterback, John Skelton, getting into this game at some point.Bucs.

Vikings at Patriots: Brett Favre's streak of 316 straight starts (including playoff games) may well be in jeopardy on Sunday because of his ankle injury. Favre has hinted that he could play but Vikings head coach Brad Childress appears to be thinking that fielding a hurt Favre, who isn't playing very well anyway, might not be the best route for the franchise to take. Regardless of who starts under center, the Patriots, one the few consistently impressive teams in the league this year, will be too much for the Vikes to handle. Patriots.

Seahawks at Raiders: One question will determine the winner of this one: Can the Raiders run the ball on Seattle? Oakland rushed for 328 yards against Denver – with Darren McFadden accounting for over half of that – but the Seahawks have been miserly against the run this season, allowing just 77.5 yards of rushing a game (second only to the Steeler D). So it's strength against strength. And I've generally found that, when it comes to running the ball, a strong run defense will shut down a good runner. Seahawks.

Steelers at Saints: An interesting match-up between last year's Superbowl-winning team and the team that many think could be this year's champion. The Saints will want to show that they're not out of it yet, but neither their offense nor their defense has been as good as last season so far. Meanwhile, the Steelers defense might be the most impressive single unit (on either side of the ball) in the NFL at the moment. Steelers.

Texans at Colts: Houston finally beat longtime nemesis Indianapolis earlier this year. To repeat the upset they'll have to rely on a heavy dose of Arian Foster, as the Colts still rank in the top ten of the league's worst rushing defenses. The Foster surprise factor is gone this time around, however, while the Texans pass defense is so porous that it's giving up over 300 yards a game through the air. Can't see Peyton Manning missing out on that a second time. Colts.

Picking NFL Week 7

How I did last week: 9-5

Definitely what I would call a bounce-back week. My “not-overthinking it” tactic is going swimmingly.

Record on the season: 50-40

Well, it's better than 50 percent...

Jaguars at Chiefs: Believe it or not, but I haven't picked the Chiefs to win any of their five games this season (they're 3-2, by the way). So why would I buck that trend now, with the Chiefs coming off a two game losing streak? Well, they were one offensive pass-interference call away from beating the Texans last week, and they held Peyton Manning without a touchdown for three quarters the week before. The concept of a 'quality loss' may be a little ridiculous, but call me a believer. Chiefs.

Eagles at Titans: A true test for Kevin Kolb: a game against the Titans nasty, scrappy defense and without deep-threat DeSean Jackson to boot. On the other side of the ball, Chris Johnson could thrive a defense that doesn't defend the run, and a secondary that doesn't tackle, very well. Titans.

Bills at Ravens: Any team playing against the Bills right now is pretty much guaranteed to be my lock of week. And given that the Ravens are a top-10 (you could make a persuasive argument for top-5) team this season and playing at home, not much discussion necessary here. Ravens.

Browns at Saints: After three average performances in a row, the Saints bounced back last Sunday throttling the Bucs 31-6. If Chris Ivory is more than a one-week flash in the pan, New Orleans should now have a strong running game to complement and improve its passing game. And that's what made them so good last year. Saints.

Redskins at Bears: Redskins defensive end Brian Orakpo terrifies even good offensive lines (I think I saw at least five called or uncalled holds on him when Washington played Green Bay a couple weeks ago). Along with Lorenzo Alexander and the rest of the Redskins pass-rushers, Orakpo will be licking his chops at the prospect of facing the Bears poor O-line. But if Washington couldn't stop Joseph Addai and the Colts running game last week, Matt Forte may be the difference maker for Chicago one again. Bears.

Bengals at Falcons: The Bengals are fresh, coming off a bye week, but unless they start getting better production out of Carson Palmer and its defense (which has been poor at defending the run and pressuring the passer) it might not matter. Falcons.

Steelers at Dolphins: With Big Ben back and the defense showing no signs of letting up, it's getting awfully hard to pick against Pittsburgh. Steelers.

49ers at Panthers: If San Francisco wants to get its season back on track – and, a little surprisingly, there a lot of people who think it's not too late – losing this game is not an option. 49ers.

Rams at Buccaneers: There may not be a ton of star-power in this one, but it's an interesting matchup between two of the upstart teams in the league this year, and two promising young quarterbacks. Not much to pick between the teams, but St. Louis' defense is a little better than Tampa Bay's. Rams.

Cardinals at Seahawks: A few things I like about the Seahawks this season: a/ Marshawn Lynch is a great addition to their backfield (taking the role Pete Carroll initially wanted LenDale White to fill this summer) b/ Matt Hasselbeck thinking he's back in 2005 c/ their defense finally stiffening up a little. The 'Hawks are finally giving those rabid Qwest Field fans something to cheer about. Seahawks.

Patriots at Chargers: Work this one out if you can: the Chargers are number one in the league in total offense and passing offense. That good, right? They're also ranked first in the league in total defense and pass defense. Well, that's excellent. Their record on the season? 2-4. And it's only going to get worse Sunday against New England, the only NFL team that is averaging over 30 points a game. Patriots.

Raiders at Broncos: $1000 right now to name the NFL's current leading receiver (in yards). Bet you can't do it. No it's not Andre or Calvin Johnson, Miles Austin, or Reggie Wayne. Try Brandon Lloyd, the 8^th year pro, who's played for four franchises and is anything but a household name. He has 663 receiving yards this season (61 more than second-placed Reggie Wayne). Without taking any credit away from Lloyd, that should give you some idea of how well Kyle Orton is throwing the football right now. Broncos.

Vikings at Packers: Last season, Brett Favre saved his best for games against his old employers. He'll want to be just as stellar in his second return to Lambeau. If they were fully healthy, I would pick the Packers because they have a better, younger team. But the Green Bay is one of the league's most injury-decimated franchises right now, and it's been showing the last three weeks. Vikings.

Giants at Cowboys: Home and away the Cowboys just haven't been able to pull it together this season. When I watch them play, I see an extremely talented roster with very little discipline. Patrick Crayton confirmed my suspicions this week. A couple more losses – and the hot Giants who've shored up their defense in recent weeks should be more than capable of delivering one– and Wade Phillips will be history. Giants.

Picking NFL Week 4

How I did last week: 10-6

One Brian Urlacher forced fumble away from the 11-5 week I was craving.

Record on the season: 28-20

Gotta to get above 60 percent...

49ers at Falcons: Three games in and it's reaching debacle level in San Francisco (where offensive coordinator Jimmy Raye was let go this week). Not the best time to face a team that beat you 45-10 last year and is coming off a big division win in New Orleans. Don't look now Niners fans, but with the Eagles coming to town next week, you could be 0-5 in two weeks time and your season finished before we hit mid-October. Falcons.

Jets at Bills: The Jets are already back on track, they don't need this powder-puff of a fixture right now. But they'll take it. Jets.

Ravens at Steelers: I think this is the game where not having Ben Roethlisberger under center finally catches up with the Steelers. Yes, Charlie Batch played well and got a victory against Tampa Bay. But swept under the rug were the two interceptions he threw and his second touchdown pass to Mike Williams which really should have been a third pick. Under a lot more pressure against the Ravens, he'll make more mistakes. Pittsburgh's defense will keep the game close, but Baltimore will score just enough points to triumph. Ravens.

Panthers at Saints: Looking for a coach on the hot seat? Panthers head man John Fox fits the bill. Fox's job was most likely saved by the Panthers going 4-1 in their last five games last season, thanks in part to Matt Moore's emergence. But Moore regressed this season and lost his starting job to rookie Jimmy Clausen. All of a sudden, Carolina (0-3) looks like one of the league's worst teams and Fox like a dead man walking. Saints.

Broncos at Titans: Everyone knows about Chris Johnson, but here's a stat you probably didn't know about Tennessee: their defense has allowed an average of 14 points per game so far this season, which is third fewest in the NFL (behind only the Steelers and Chiefs (both unbeaten, by the way)). If the D can keep that up, the Titans are going to win a lot of games this year. Titans.

Bengals at Browns: Can't believe I actually picked a Bengals game right last week. I think that makes me 1-189 all time in Cincinnati picks. Now let's see if I can get a streak started. Bengals.

Lions at Packers: Committing 18 penalties for 152 yards in a single game (as Green Bay did against Chicago on Monday night) is a pretty fail-proof way of making sure a team doesn't live up to its vast potential. The Packers have frequently been one of the most penalized team in the NFL during the Mike McCarthy era. But after hearing McCarthy harp on about the problem all week, they'll straighten it out for at least a couple games. Packers.

Seahawks at Rams: Can you believe that three NFC West teams (including these two) actually won last week? Could be a while before that happens again...The Seahawks have looked very strong in their two home games, but will need to cash in some road wins to be a playoff team. However, all of a sudden, playing the Rams doesn't look like the guaranteed W that it was last season (two of Seattle's five wins last season came at the expense of St. Louis). Not sure about this one. Seahawks.

Colts at Jaguars: Rough outing last week for Jacksonville and, with the Colts rolling into town, it won't get any easier this week. Colts.

Texans at Raiders: Sebastian Janikowski didn't look worth that $16 million contract when he missed a 32-yard gamewinner against Arizona did he? It's not going to be easy to be the highest paid placekicker in NFL history when you're only hitting 61.5% of your field goals on a team that requires you to kick as much as the Raiders do (six times against Arizona). Sometimes those big contracts aren't all they're cracked up to be. Just ask Big Albert Haynesworth. Texans.

Cardinals at Chargers: The Chargers have lost two very similar games. In both: they: a/ were playing away from San Diego but heavily favored, b/ fell behind early, c/ started making a comeback, d/ ultimately fell just short. I don't think they'll need to make a comeback at home against a team that should have lost to Oakland. Chargers.

Redskins at Eagles: It surprises me that Donovan McNabb's return to Philly didn't make it to either of the week's showcase games, on Sunday or Monday night. McNabb looks good this season and is eager to stuff years of criticism down Eagles fans' throats (not a direct quote). Couple that with Michael Vick getting back to passing and running for touchdowns and earning NFC offensive player of the month for September, and you have a mouthwatering matchup on your hands. Most of the country (with the exceptions of the Arizona and San Diego areas) will watch this shootout that really could go either way. Eagles.

Bears at Giants: I think even the most die-hard Bears fans would admit Chicago has had its fair share of luck this season (see Calvin Johnson's catch that wasn't in Week 1, and two Packers picks of Jay Cutler wiped out by penalties last Monday). Playing the Giants at a time when they appear to be imploding is a pretty big slice of luck in itself. Could New York really start 0-3 in its brand new stadium? Bears.

Patriots at Dolphins: If the Buffalo Bills can score 30 points and put up 374 yards of offense (no typos there, I promise, I double-checked) on the Patriots defense, then the Dolphins should be able to move the ball on them too. On the other side of the ball, the Miami defense will hold Tom Brady and co. under 22 points. Dolphins.

Picking NFL Week 3

How I did last week: 10-6

The 2009 Cincinnati Bengals. I'll settle for that, though I've been kicking myself all week for not going with my gut and picking the Bears upset of the Cowboys like I wanted to.

Record on the season: 18-14

Pulling into the black.

Bills at Patriots: The Texans already got their longtime monkey, the Colts, off their back this season, but the Bills seem to be a million miles away from overcoming their own personal divisional nemesis, the Pats, who they have lost 13 straight to. Maybe C.J. Spiller has a breakout game, maybe Patrick Chung and the frustrated Donte Whitner each pick off a Tom Brady pass leading to the Bills pulling off a tremendous upset. But at Gillette Stadium, where New England hasn't lost a regular season game since November 2008... I wouldn't bet on it. Patriots.

49ers at Chiefs: Heartbreaking. That's the only way I can describe San Francisco's loss to the defending Superbowl champs Monday night on a last second field goal. However, turnovers aside, the Niners proved they could move the ball on offense and score touchdowns against the Saints, something that the Chiefs, despite being 2-0, has struggled with so far (two offensive touchdowns in two games). I still like San Francisco to win the NFC West (also known as the NFL's worst division by a country mile) but they can't afford to fall to 0-3. 49ers in a defense-dominated battle.

Titans at Giants: The Giants couldn't stop the Colts from running the ball on them last Sunday. This week they welcome Chris Johnson, who now needs 166 rushing yards per game to reach his 2,500 yard goal. New York will load the box to stop CJ2K and that will allow Vince Young to kickstart Tennessee's anemic passing game. Titans.

Browns at Ravens: Joe Flacco may have had his worst outing as a pro last week (17 of 39 passes completed and 4 interceptions), but unless he decides Sunday morning to throw all his passes left-handed, I wouldn't even contemplate picking the Browns (who've lost to both the Bucs and Chiefs so far) to win in Baltimore. Ravens.

Bengals at Panthers: If there's one team that I've proved entirely incapable of deciphering during my time as an NFL progniscator, it's the Cincinnati Bengals. I underestimated them at the start of last season, then overestimated them in the season's last few weeks and playoffs. Nothing's changed in 2010: I'm 0-2 on Bengals picks. That's why it worries me that this pick seems so cut and dry. The Panthers are 0-2, haven't been able to run the ball this season, and are giving a rookie quarterback, Jimmy Clausen, his first NFL start. Cincinnati should devour them. Bengals.

Steelers at Buccaneers: If Josh Freeman wants to prove to the world that he can continue to play mistake-free ball (he has a 95 passer rating through two games), then doing so against a defense that's forced 10 turnovers in two games would be a great place to start. Tampa Bay's improved defense shouldn't give up too many points to Charlie Batch, but Pittsburgh's D will keep them on the field for much longer that they'd like. Steelers.

Falcons at Saints: Atlanta is probably the only team that could challenge New Orleans' dominance of NFC South this season, and beating the Saints in the Superdome would certainly send out a strong message that the divisional race is on. But until Matt Ryan shows a little more clutch in one of these big games, I refuse to pick the Falcons to win. Come on, Matty Ice, live up to that nickname and prove me wrong! Saints.

Lions at Vikings: I'll give you one more chance Mr. Favre. Vikings.

Cowboys at Texans: For the second straight game, Tony Romo will pass for over 300 yards in a Cowboys' loss. Why? Because Dallas can't run the ball, Houston's explosive offense can score points in bunches and, most importantly, the Texans have newfound belief in themselves. Texans.

Eagles at Jaguars: The total about-face of Philadelphia head coach Andy Reid (usually legendary for his stubbornness) with regards to the Eagles quarterback controversy (documented adeptly here by SI.com's Peter King), should tell you one thing. Michael Vick's performances on the last two Sundays weren't flukes. Reid must believe that Vick can get back to the level he was performing at prior to his run-in with the law. If you believe in Vick's supposed maturation process, perhaps even better. Either way, he should be able to rain points on Jacksonville. Eagles.

Redskins at Rams: The two happiest men that the Redskins front office moved for Donovan McNabb this offseason? Tight end Chris Cooley and receiver Santana Moss. McNabb's passing ability has given new life to both Moss, who has 16 catches for 166 yards through two games, and Cooley, who is averaging 72 receiving yards per game and 16 yards per catch (both career highs by some distance). Redskins.

Colts at Broncos: A tragedy in Denver this past week reminded us of the over-the-top importance that as a society we attach (thanks in part to columns like this one) to what is ultimately just a game. In light of Kenny McKinley's death, a player who couldn't imagine a life without football, any attempt to try and analyze this matchup seems a little too frivolous. Colts.

Raiders at Cardinals: A game both teams will really want, given that the loser could be staring 1-4 square in the face (Raiders play Chargers and Texans in Week 3 and 4, while Cardinals play the Saints and the Chargers). Aside from both squeaking past the Rams, neither team has shown us much this season, so I'll go with the home team. Cardinals.

Chargers at Seahawks: So which one is the real Seahawks team? The one that blew out San Francisco in Week 1 or the one that committed three turnovers and gave up 17 unanswered points in the first half to Denver in Week 2? History suggests the latter, and I'm inclined to agree. Chargers.

Jets at Dolphins: There are a lot of factors in Miami's favor for this matchup. They beat the Jets twice last season, they're playing at home, and they're full of confidence coming off back-to-back wins. However, in New York's impressive fightback against New England last week (sans Darelle Revis), I saw a glimpse of the team Rex Ryan has been talking about to anyone who would listen for the last six months. Jets.

Packers at Bears: Games played on Monday nights always seem to be closer than you'd thought they'd be. I think Chicago, in front of its home fans, gives the Pack a hard-fought, close game. Ultimately, however, this will also be the game where the Bears finally face the music for their disaster of an offensive line. Packers.

Picking NFL Week 2

How I did last weekend: 8-8

Rustier than Brett Favre's throwing arm.

Record on the season so far: 8-8

Don't be taking any of these picks to the bookies just yet.

Steelers at Titans: I don't have anything against Chris Johnson – he's undoubtedly one of the league's most exciting players – but I think he's dreaming if he really thinks he can have a 2,500 yard season. Even if he avoids injury and plays in every game, he's going to have to average 156.25 rushing yards per game. That means his vintage performance last week against the Raiders (142 rushing yards at an average of 5.3 yards per carry and 2 TDs) isn't good enough. The Steelers linebackers will help him rein in his targets a little. Steelers.

Ravens at Bengals: Watching Baltimore's opener, it appeared that Joe Flacco may finally have enough receiving weapons to regularly convert in obvious passing situations, something he hasn't had over the course his professional career so far. That's bad news for the division rivals Bengals who beat the Ravens twice last season. Meanwhile Cincinnati is in a slump: they haven't won against a good team since they overcame the Steelers in week 10 of last season. They need a W in a game like this one. Ravens.

Eagles at Lions: The battle of the backup QBs? If Kevin Kolb isn't cleared to play from his concussion, that's what this game will be. Even with 19 months of prison time under his belt, I'd still take Michael Vick over Shaun Hill any day (what an un-PC thing to say...apologies). After a poor preseason, Vick flashed the dual-threat ability that made him an NFL superstar while leading an Eagles fightback against the Packers last week. Should he produce another good individual performance, the Eagles faithful will be calling for the Kolb experiment to end though it has barely begun. Eagles.

Cardinals at Falcons: Derek Anderson shredded the Rams secondary for almost 300 yards last weekend, but he completed only 22 of 41 passes. I'm not buying Anderson stock just yet. I think Mr. Consistently Inconsistent throws at least one pick against Atlanta. Falcons.

Dolphins at Vikings: Miami always seems to be involved in close games: they don't earn many style points in victory (as evidenced by their uninspiring 15-10 victory over Buffalo last week) but they rarely get blown out either. Minnesota's current offensive frailties will keep this game close also, but Adrian Peterson is due a monster day and he'll deliver against the Dolphins. Vikings.

Chiefs at Browns: The Chiefs had a big win against San Diego last Monday. But I remember a similar win at home against the Steelers in week 11 of 2009. I jumped on the Kansas City bandwagon after that one, only to see them lose five straight games. What's that famous George W. Bush quote? “Fool me once...Shame on...Shame on you....You fool me, you can't get fooled again.” Point is Matt Cassel 's disappointing day (10 of 22 passes for 68 yards) was well disguised by some big special teams and defensive plays. I think the Browns will expose his lack of progress as the signal caller in Kansas City. Browns.

Buccaneers at Panthers: Big test for rookie defensive tackles Gerald McCoy and Brian Price. The two new starters will be charged with stopping two fuming running backs in DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, who each rushed for 1100+ yards last year but were held to 74 yards on 21 carries between them in week 1. Panthers.

Bills at Packers: If you have any doubt as to who is going to win this game, then you haven't been watching Aaron Rodgers run the Green Bay offense over the last twelve months. Packers.

Bears at Cowboys: Neither Chicago nor Dallas set the world alight in week 1. The Bears needed a controversial no-catch call to overcome the Lions, while the Cowboys played mistake-full football on route to being upset by the Redskins. Julius Peppers will be licking his chops at the prospect of facing the Cowboys porous/ hold-happy offensive line, and if the Bears can limit the damage done by Dallas receiver Miles Austin (easier said than done: he had 10 catches, 146 yards and a TD last week), they could win in Jerry's house. Cowboys.

Seahawks at Broncos: New Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll looked like his boisterous, energetic, USC self last Sunday and his players were loving every minute of it. How Carroll manages his team in moments of adversity, however, will be the true test of whether he succeeds in his return to the world of professional coaching. Playing on the road against a team that desperately doesn't want to lose its sixth straight regular season game (dating back to last December) could provide a first taste of adversity. Broncos.

Rams at Raiders: Way to ease your new franchise quarterback into the fray, Steve Spagnuolo. 55 pass attempts in Sam Bradford's first regular season start? You gotta be kidding me! Only Peyton Manning threw more passes in week 1. The bad news from Bradford's debut: the three picks he threw. The good news: he completed 58% of those passes and looked cool and collected out there. The best news: if he stays healthy, he's only going to get better. Raiders.

Jaguars at Chargers: David Garrard looked sharp in Jacksonville's opener, but I just can't see the Chargers slipping up at home when a 0-2 record is on the line. Chargers.

Patriots at Jets: New York's All-World cornerback Darelle Revis has been grabbing headlines (again), this time with a sore left hamstring that held him out of some practices during the week. But the Jets cornerback who should really be under pressure against the Patriots is Antonio Cromartie on the other side of the field. The Ravens picked on Cromartie last week, throwing pass after pass in his direction. He did intercept one, but he also gave up a lot of yardage. Now he faces the slippery Wes Welker, Brady's favorite third down target, who looked to be back to his best against Cincinnati. New York's offense struggles to keep pace with New England's. Patriots.

Texans at Redskins: You don't go and blow all the momentum gained from finally getting the better your longtime nemesis (as Houston did against Indianapolis last weekend) by losing the following week to a “work in progress” team like the Redskins. The game's two key match-ups: Texans running back Arian Foster against the Redskins defensive front seven and Houston Pro Bowl defensive end Mario Williams versus Washington rookie left tackle Trent Williams. The Texans win both. Texans.

Giants at Colts: Manning Bowl 2: Peyton vs Eli. Peyton got the better of the brothers' first professional encounter, leading the Colts to a 26-21 victory back in 2006. This time around, Peyton needs to win again to prevent the Colts from slipping to an 0-2 start for the first time since his rookie season in 1998. The Giants will try and test the Colts run defense, which is clearly one of their biggest weaknesses, as showcased by the Texans game. However New York's running game isn't as strong as Houston's. I expect both quarterbacks to get 30 to 40 passing attempts and you always like Peyton in a shootout situation; especially against his snot-nosed little bro. Colts.

Saints at 49ers: San Francisco suffered a major implosion last week in Seattle, casting serious doubt over their ability to be the cream of the NFC West crop. This Monday night game is a great chance for them to have a statement win by beating the Superbowl champs in front of their home fans and a national TV audience. Mike Singletary will have his team fired up that's for sure; if their defensive leader Patrick Willis doesn't lay someone out with a big hit by the end of the first quarter, I'd be very surprised. This game will be close, but until I actually see more out of the San Francisco offense in a non-preseason situation, I just can't pick them over New Orleans. Saints.

Picking NFL Week 1

Raiders at Titans: For the first time in a while, the Raiders made a series of very smart off-season moves. They cut JaMarcus Russell (which made me happy simply because I was getting sick of bashing the guy), drafted stud linebacker Rolando McClain and made some signings to bolster their run defense in defensive tackle John Henderson and outside linebackers Kamerion Wimbley and Quentin Groves. Well, if they want to start stopping the run, playing against the NFL's best running back is certainly a good first test. Titans.

Panthers at Giants: Most casual NFL fans probably don't remember what happened last time these two teams played. But I guarantee the Giants do. The G-men were humiliated 45-9 by Carolina two days after Christmas last year. Jonathan Stewart rushed for over 200 yards in that game, and New York's number one goal will be to stop the Panthers running game on Sunday. If they can do that, Eli Manning should be able to dissect Carolina's defense, given the lack of a threatening Panthers pass-rush. Giants.

Colts at Texans: The Texans want to beat the Colts. Really, really badly. We all know the stats on this one. They are 1-15 all-time against Peyton Manning and co. They haven't forgotten the 20-7 halftime lead they blew at Reliant Stadium last season. Or the 42-yard missed field goal that prevented them from forcing overtime at Lucas Oil Stadium in the return match-up. But the Texans lost their best cornerback, Dunta Robinson, to free agency this off-season. Peyton will like the sound of that. Colts.

Broncos at Jaguars: The Broncos have been taking a beating with prognosticators lately after a spate of injuries and poor preseason showings. But they still have more of a solid squad than the Jaguars. Moreover, by all accounts, Kyle Orton appeared far more comfortable in the McDaniels' offense this season. Broncos.

Falcons at Steelers: Into the fire goes Dennis Dixon, a third year pro with only one NFL start to his name, against Atlanta. He didn't play exactly the way the Steelers wanted him to this preseason but they love his mobility in and out of the pocket. The Steelers defense should give Matt Ryan plenty of problems, but, in the end, Dixon's inexperience costs them the win. Falcons.

Dolphins at Bills: C.J. Spiller looked like a star in the making this preseason. Unfortunately, there isn't much strength around him. Miami will focus on shutting him down and allowing Trent Edwards to make some mistakes, something history suggests is quite likely to happen. Dolphins.

Lions at Bears: I like the way GM Martin Mayhew and head coach Jim Schwartz are rebuilding the Lions. I can't wait to see Ndamukong Suh take the field and get into opposition backfields. I also think Matthew Stafford will be much better this year. However, I still have a lot of faith in Jay Cutler and he'll surely be aware that this is a make-or-break year in his professional career. Bears.

Bengals at Patriots: The big question surrounding the Patriots is their defense. They gave up a ton of yards this preseason, and haven't been able to get to the quarterback for a while now. The Bengals strong running game with Cedric Benson should allow them to keep Tom Brady off the field for big chunks of the game, and that's never good news in New England. Bengals.

Browns at Buccaneers: The Browns gambled big on Jake Delhomme this off-season, and it might not be a bad play as Delhomme looked like he still had a season or two left in him during the preseason games. His experience may be very important to this up-and-coming team. Browns.

49ers at Seahawks: If the 49ers want to stake their claim to being the best in the NFC West, losing to the Seahawks in their opener would pretty much be the worst imaginable start. The 49ers defense should be able to smother most of what the Hawks can produce offensively: Seattle's O-line is weak (no first-round pick tackle Russell Okung in this one) and their receiving corp is paper thin. That means that Alex Smith will only have to be solid, not spectacular, to win this game for San Francisco. He has appeared more than capable of that this preseason. 49ers.

Packers at Eagles: I didn't watch that many preseason games, but one I did catch was the Green Bay-Indianapolis Colts match-up. I was quite simply blown away with how effectively Aaron Rodgers ran the offense in the few possessions he played. I like Green Bay a lot this season: I like them to win the NFC North and I think they could go deep into the postseason. They'll be too much to handle for an Eagles team debuting a new quarterback. Packers.

Cardinals at Rams: There are definitely tougher secondaries in the league that Sam Bradford could be facing in his regular season debut, but the number one overall pick is still bound to have some early jitters. The key to the game will be how Bradford deals with all the early pressure Arizona is bound to throw at him and his poor offensive line. Cardinals.

Cowboys at Redskins: Man, did Tony Romo stink bad this preseason. But I'm calling smokescreen/ indifference on his part. Once the lights go on on Sunday night, he will be sharp. I'd bet money on it. Meanwhile part of the reason Donovan McNabb isn't with the Eagles anymore was how he performed against the Cowboys in what turned out to be the last two games of his career in Philadelphia. Cowboys.

Ravens at Jets: One of most mouth-watering match-ups of the first week. The Ravens addressed their biggest weakness – the receiving corps – in spades during the off-season. In come Anquan Boldin, Donte Stallworth, Ed Dickson, Dennis Pitta and just a few days ago, T.J. Houshmandzadeh adding to Joe Flacco's favorite target last season, running back Ray Rice. As we saw on “Hard Knocks”, the Jets have both plenty of confidence and expectations heading into the season. But their offense sputtered in the preseason, and I think people too quickly forgot, in the midst of their 2009 postseason run, that Mark Sanchez was average at best for large parts of the regular season. I think Jets coach Rex Ryan may be in for some disappointment this year. Ravens in a low-scoring game.

Chargers at Chiefs: I love the Chiefs selecting Eric Berry with the fifth pick of this year's draft. Anyone who says safeties don't have enough of an effect on teams to go that high obviously haven't watched Troy Polamalu play recently. I think Kansas' D will be better this year, but they don't have the offensive weapons to keep pace with Philip Rivers and the Chargers high-powered offense. Chargers.