Picking NFL Conference Championship Weekend

How I Did Last Week: 3-1

Had the Patriots not imploded against the Jets, I would have been perfect. Now that would have been sweet.

Record on the 2011 Playoffs: 4-4

Solid, Peyton Manning-type postseason numbers. I'm no Rex Ryan, though (and in more ways than one, trust me...).

Packers at Bears:

The key to success in this game for Chicago will be slowing down Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay passing game (because stopping it entirely seems impossible).

Rodgers has been almost untouchable in the first two games of the playoffs, throwing tight spirals and showing supreme accuracy. He’s completed an otherworldly 77.8% of his postseason passes, and if he puts up similar numbers against the Bears, he’ll undoubtedly lead the Pack to the Super Bowl.

But the Bears’ defense is tougher than either the Falcons’ or the Eagles’. They’ll try to bottle up Green Bay’s running game, jam receivers at the line of scrimmage (as they did so effectively with Seahawks big man Mike Williams last week) and get pressure on Rodgers with their pass-rushers.

Green Bay’s offensive line has been frail in the past, and a defensive end of Julius Peppers’ quality could cause those weaknesses to surface again.

On the other side of the ball, Chicago’s offense has shown itself very capable of putting points on the board and making big plays.

A couple of interesting matchups in this game will be:

a/ How effectively the Packers’ secondary contains Bears tight end Greg Olsen, who has great chemistry with Jay Cutler.

b/ How effectively the Bears offensive line handles Clay Matthews III, B.J. Raji, and Charles Woodson (coming on the corner blitz).

Ultimately, we could see another tight defensive battle like we witnessed when these teams met just three weeks ago. But with no signs of heavy snow or other adverse conditions, it’s hard to see Rodgers cooling off after his hot postseason start.

Packers.

Jets at Steelers:

If the Saints were the apparent team of destiny of 2010, the New York Jets have looked like that team in 2011 so far. Anything but favored heading into January, the plucky Jets then set about beating quite possibly the NFL’s two best quarterbacks in back-to-back weeks. Thanks undoubtedly to their outspoken, confident coach Rex Ryan, this team clearly has plenty of self-belief and faith in their ability to win when it matters.

Up against them now are the Steelers, another storied AFC franchise with a quarterback who has plenty of winning postseason experience.

The Steelers have played phenomenal defense all season, but the Jets have stepped up in that department in the postseason, holding Manning and Brady to a combined 37 points.

A big factor in this game will be whether the Jets can establish their running game against the Steelers league-best rushing defense. New York backs gained a combined 289 yards against Indy and New England and those yards led to long, time-consuming drives. If they can consistently move the chains against Pittsburgh, passing will become far easier for Mark Sanchez.

On the other side of the ball, Roethlisberger may not be the most aesthetically pleasing quarterback but he has shown a consistent ability to put points up when it matters (exhibit A: those 24 second-half points against the Ravens last week). He spread the ball around to six receivers in that game, and will most likely look to non-frontline receivers (Emmanuel Sanders and Antonio Brown) against New York as well.

One concern for Pittsburgh will be its offensive line, which is heavily affected by injuries. Ryan likes to blitz anyway, but having seen Roethlisberger take six sacks last week will only make him more eager to bring pressure.

Ultimately, the deciding factor in this game could be how fit All-Everything Steelers safety Troy Polamalu is. It’s well documented that the drop-off for Pittsburgh’s defense is significant when he doesn’t play. He’s been cleared for Sunday but didn’t look fully fit against the Ravens (he uncharacteristically missed some big tackles in that game). If he isn’t 100 percent, I see the Jets picking on him.

Jets.