NFL Conference Championships Recap

Game Recaps:

Packers: 21 Bears: 14

In many ways this game was the defensive clash we all expected, but only after the Packers had started crisply and jumped to 14-0 lead.

The two teams traded possessions (and the Bears traded quarterbacks) in the second and third quarters with Green Bay holding on to but not increasing its lead.

The introduction of Caleb Hanie, Chicago’s third-string quarterback (but not for much longer), gave the Bears a bit of life in the fourth quarter they pulled it back to 14-7 and then 21-14 in the final minutes.

But B.J. Raji’s pick six kept the game from getting too close and rookie Sam Shields grabbed his second interception of the day to finally quash the Bears’ comeback.

Jets: 19 Steelers: 24

The combination of a strong running game and their typical defensive stinginess gave the Steelers as good a first half as they could have hoped for.

They jumped out to a 24-3 lead on short Ben Roethlisberger and Rashard Mendenhall runs and a defensive TD. Pittsburgh kept the
Jets offense on the sideline for most of the half, limiting them to 64 yards of total offense and one rushing yard.

However New York roared back in the third and fourth quarters. They scored 16 unanswered points as their offense finally gelled and their defense caused some Steeler turnovers.

The game's turning point was a huge stop by the Steelers D on 4^th-and-1 at their own one yard line which prevented the Jets from making it a one-possession game halfway through the fourth quarter.

And even though New York forced a safety on the very next play, they were unable to trim Pittsburgh’s lead under five points.

Five (Not So) Quick Hits:

1/ How about the opening drives of both conference championship games?

In Chicago, Aaron Rodgers was crisp and efficient right out of the gate, immediately leading the Packers on a 7-play, 84-yard touchdown drive that ate up a little over 4 minutes of clock.

But in Pittsburgh, the Steelers had a even better opening drive (if that’s possible). They slowly and methodically drove down the field, converting three straight third downs, and basically running the ball down Rex Ryan’s throat.

There were 15 plays on that 66-yard touchdown drive that lasted a remarkable nine minutes.

2/ You have to say, Green Bay emphatically proved that they are anything but than a one-man team, with a number of other players

coming up big at Soldier Field and picking up the slack for a sub-par day from quarterback Aaron Rodgers.

3/ I’m still lovin’ that B.J. Raji touchdown celebration.

4/ If there was one guy who didn’t deserve to end up on a losing team on Sunday it was Bears linebacker Brian Urlacher.

Urlacher was huge against Green Bay, registering 9 solo tackles and one assisted tackle, a sack, and even picking off a Rodgers pass.

All things considered is was a great comeback season for the middle linebacker who missed almost all the 2009 season.

5/ That first half injury to Maurkice Pouncey almost had a huge impact on the AFC title game when Roethlisberger and backup center Doug Legursky muffed an exchange in their own endzone in the fourth quarter.

Pittsburgh gave up a safety on that play (the second Roethlisberger-Legursky flub of the game) which allowed the Jets back into it.

Stud of the Week:

Steelers running back Rashard Mendenhall: Blew the AFC Championship game open with a scintillating first half display. He established the Steelers run game in a big way by consistently moving the chains.

What made his performance all the more special is that Rex Ryan defenses don’t usually give up that many rushing yards.

He cooled off in the second half, finishing with 121 yards and a touchdown on 27 carries, but he had already done his share of the damage to the scoreboard.

Dud of the Week:

Bears quarterback Jay Cutler: Leaving the “was-he wasn’t-he” injury controversy aside for a moment, let's not forget Cutler wasn’t that good when he did actually play.

He was inaccurate, overthrowing a number of open receivers early on and then underthrowing a deep ball to Johnny Knox that Sam Shields picked off.

He completed only 6-of-14 passes for 80 yards and an interception, finishing with a quarterback rating of 31.8 when he left the game with a knee injury in the third quarter.

As for the injury, none of us can do anything more than speculate about whether he should have kept playing. The fact that such a large number of players and ex-players spoke up about it says something though, I think.

Rookie of the Week:

Packers cornerback Sam Shields: The rookie out of Miami has been exceptional all season opposite Tramon Williams in Green Bay’s secondary, but he had perhaps his best day as a pro against Chicago.

He picked off two passes, including the interception that iced the NFC championship, but added two defended passes, four tackles, a sack and a forced fumble to his Sunday statline.

That’s a “Charles Woodson-esque” performance.

Play of the Week: This play epitomizes everything that makes the Steelers defense great.

Ridiculous Play of the Week: Try avoiding the shoelaces, Aaron.

Picking NFL Conference Championship Weekend

How I Did Last Week: 3-1

Had the Patriots not imploded against the Jets, I would have been perfect. Now that would have been sweet.

Record on the 2011 Playoffs: 4-4

Solid, Peyton Manning-type postseason numbers. I'm no Rex Ryan, though (and in more ways than one, trust me...).

Packers at Bears:

The key to success in this game for Chicago will be slowing down Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay passing game (because stopping it entirely seems impossible).

Rodgers has been almost untouchable in the first two games of the playoffs, throwing tight spirals and showing supreme accuracy. He’s completed an otherworldly 77.8% of his postseason passes, and if he puts up similar numbers against the Bears, he’ll undoubtedly lead the Pack to the Super Bowl.

But the Bears’ defense is tougher than either the Falcons’ or the Eagles’. They’ll try to bottle up Green Bay’s running game, jam receivers at the line of scrimmage (as they did so effectively with Seahawks big man Mike Williams last week) and get pressure on Rodgers with their pass-rushers.

Green Bay’s offensive line has been frail in the past, and a defensive end of Julius Peppers’ quality could cause those weaknesses to surface again.

On the other side of the ball, Chicago’s offense has shown itself very capable of putting points on the board and making big plays.

A couple of interesting matchups in this game will be:

a/ How effectively the Packers’ secondary contains Bears tight end Greg Olsen, who has great chemistry with Jay Cutler.

b/ How effectively the Bears offensive line handles Clay Matthews III, B.J. Raji, and Charles Woodson (coming on the corner blitz).

Ultimately, we could see another tight defensive battle like we witnessed when these teams met just three weeks ago. But with no signs of heavy snow or other adverse conditions, it’s hard to see Rodgers cooling off after his hot postseason start.

Packers.

Jets at Steelers:

If the Saints were the apparent team of destiny of 2010, the New York Jets have looked like that team in 2011 so far. Anything but favored heading into January, the plucky Jets then set about beating quite possibly the NFL’s two best quarterbacks in back-to-back weeks. Thanks undoubtedly to their outspoken, confident coach Rex Ryan, this team clearly has plenty of self-belief and faith in their ability to win when it matters.

Up against them now are the Steelers, another storied AFC franchise with a quarterback who has plenty of winning postseason experience.

The Steelers have played phenomenal defense all season, but the Jets have stepped up in that department in the postseason, holding Manning and Brady to a combined 37 points.

A big factor in this game will be whether the Jets can establish their running game against the Steelers league-best rushing defense. New York backs gained a combined 289 yards against Indy and New England and those yards led to long, time-consuming drives. If they can consistently move the chains against Pittsburgh, passing will become far easier for Mark Sanchez.

On the other side of the ball, Roethlisberger may not be the most aesthetically pleasing quarterback but he has shown a consistent ability to put points up when it matters (exhibit A: those 24 second-half points against the Ravens last week). He spread the ball around to six receivers in that game, and will most likely look to non-frontline receivers (Emmanuel Sanders and Antonio Brown) against New York as well.

One concern for Pittsburgh will be its offensive line, which is heavily affected by injuries. Ryan likes to blitz anyway, but having seen Roethlisberger take six sacks last week will only make him more eager to bring pressure.

Ultimately, the deciding factor in this game could be how fit All-Everything Steelers safety Troy Polamalu is. It’s well documented that the drop-off for Pittsburgh’s defense is significant when he doesn’t play. He’s been cleared for Sunday but didn’t look fully fit against the Ravens (he uncharacteristically missed some big tackles in that game). If he isn’t 100 percent, I see the Jets picking on him.

Jets.

NFL Divisional Week Recap

Game Recaps

Ravens: 24 Steelers: 31

A rip-roaring game in Pittsburgh that swung dramatically in the second half. The Ravens took a comfortable 21-7 lead into halftime, but a couple of lost fumbles and sputtering offense allowed the Steelers back into the game.

A huge completion from Ben Roethlisberger to rookie wideout Antonio Brown with two minutes left (more on that later) set the table for the winning Steelers touchdown. In a typically close encounter, (much) better execution in the second half was the key to Pittsburgh’s comeback victory.

Packers: 48 Falcons: 21

Hard to dissociate any part of this game from the brilliance of Aaron Rodgers. He tore the Falcons defense up through the air leading long touchdown drive after long touchdown drive, while Green Bay’s pass defense successfully slowed Matt Ryan down.

The game’s key moment turned out to be the final minute of the first half when Green Bay first scored an offensive touchdown with 42 seconds left, and then added another score on a pick-six as time expired. A fourteen-point swing that proved too much for Atlanta to overcome.

Seahawks: 24 Bears: 35

The upset never really seemed on the cards in Chicago as the Seahawks offense didn’t even get close to the heights it reached against the Saints. Seattle’s first eight drives stalled and resulted in punts, while at the other end, Chicago slowly built a bigger and bigger lead, mixing the run and pass nicely.

The Seahawks scored three fourth quarter touchdowns to make the score respectable but the threat of a comeback never seemed real.

Jets: 28 Patriots: 21

When it comes to playoff upsets, they don’t come much bigger than the Jets victory over the Patriots on Sunday. In my Internet travels this week, I didn’t find a single NFL expert who picked New York to win. But they did it, thanks largely to an unbelievable display from Rex Ryan’s defense.

The defense did everything right, from getting constant pressure on and hitting Tom Brady to providing almost immaculate down-the-field coverage. With the Pats offense limited, Mark Sanchez played better than he has in months, ably supported by his cast of running backs and receivers.

That makes two unexpected runs of success in the playoffs for the Jets in two seasons under Rex Ryan’s leadership. That’s impressive stuff from the unorthodox coach.

Five (Not So) Quick Hits:

1/ So much for playoff seedings: both number one seeds were sent packing this weekend.

2/ Two hits that made you wince were absorbed by Seattle players on Sunday. Tight end John Carlson and defensive back Marcus Trufant were both unable to continue and were later diagnosed with concussions. Just another day in the NFL.

3/ Players often try to look intimidating with some black face paint and a fearsome glare. But Brett Keisel really pulled it off Saturday. The man's a modern-day Viking.

4/ Wes Welker was benched for the first offensive series of New England’s clash with New York. For what you ask? Well, this, apparently. If it’s true, it’s just more evidence of Bill Belichick’s legendary non-existent sense of humor.

5/ Bring on what should be two great championship games (the AFC title game in particular should be a tight one).

Studs of the Week:

a. Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers: An almost perfect quarterback performance by Green Bay’s Number 12. He put the ball exactly where he wanted with almost every throw, completing a staggering 31 of 36 passes for 366 yards and three touchdowns. He added a gutsy rushing touchdown to complete his masterful domination of Atlanta’s defense.

b. Jets linebacker David Harris: Hard to pick just one Jet out of a defense that was superb across the board but Harris was extra special. He made nine solo tackles, and was in on three others. He was also a factor in slowing the passing game, picking off a Brady pass and deflected another pass.

c. Bears tight end Greg Olsen: Showed once again why he is Jay Cutler’s favorite target, displaying sure hands and great running ability after the catch. His 58-yard touchdown catch broke the game open, and he finished with 113 yards on 3 catches.

Duds of the Week:

a. Baltimore cornerback Lardarius Webb: Made the blunder of the weekend, allowing Steelers rookie receiver Antonio Brown to run by him and catch a deep ball on 3^rd and 19 on a crucial play, despite giving himself a 20-yard cushion at the snap.

b. Seahawks safety Earl Thomas: Whiffed on a tackle to stop Jay Cutler from scoring a touchdown in the second quarter, and failed to break up a touchdown pass to Kellen Davis in the fourth. A rare rough outing from the otherwise special rookie.

c. Patriots wide receiver Deion Branch: Dropped a key pass on 4^th down towards the end of the fourth quarter and then showed himself to be a bit of a sore loser after the game was over, telling reporters, “The embarrassing part came from a few classless (Jets) guys after the game. There were a lot of classless things that went on after the game ended.”

Hey Deion, I’m pretty sure I’ve seen the Patriots celebrate fairly ‘enthusiastically’ after a big win. So take it easy.

Rookie of the Week:

Steelers wide receiver Antonio Brown: The sixth-round pick out of Central Michigan pulled in (with a little help from his helmet) the biggest catch of his career late in the game against Baltimore, a 58-yard Ben Roethlisberger bomb on 3^rd and 19. Make a few more catches like that against the black-and-purple and you’ll be forever beloved in the ‘Burgh.

Play of the Week: Unbelievable catch in the corner of the endzone by the most gifted athlete on the Jets offense.

Ridiculous Play of the Week: What’s with football players giving up on plays these days? First, it was the Oregon Ducks in the college championship game, then it was the Steelers on this play on Saturday. I thought the first rule of the game was: play to the whistle. I know a couple of pee-wee players who would tell you that.

Picking NFL Divisional Weekend

How I did last week: 1-3

Burned by Marshawn Lynch’s long run, a late Jets drive, and Tramon Williams’ leap.

Record on the playoffs: 1-3

Gotta pull off a winning record this weekend to enhance my playoff reputation.

Ravens at Steelers: When two defensive-minded teams that hate each other face off in the playoffs, you can usually expect a pretty good show. But when the two teams are as evenly matched as the Steelers and Ravens are, you can expect a nailbiter.

These two teams don’t do blowouts of each other: both of their games this season (and last season as well) were decided by a field goal. Neither team scored over 17 points in either matchup. Both games basically came down to a single remarkable play at the death: Joe Flacco 18-yard TD strike to T.J. Houshmandzadeh in the first, Troy Polamalu sack/forced fumble in the second.

And, most likely, the same will apply Saturday.

One nugget of information swung my pick here. Ben Roethlisberger didn’t play in either of Pittsburgh’s last two losses to Baltimore. So with Big Ben under center and the Heinz Field faithful in full voice, the slight edge goes to the Steel City.

Steelers.

Packers at Falcons: If there’s one man feeling a little bit of extra pressure Saturday, it’ll be Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan. We all know the kid can play, is superb in the Georgia Dome, and has a playoff-caliber nickname (kind of): “Matty Ice.” But until he gets that first playoff victory under his belt, there’s bound to be some extra nervousness in him.

He’ll face a tough passing defense from Green Bay, which isn’t opposed to trying to slow a passing game with some discreet grabbing or holding of opposing receivers. As in their first meeting (won by Atlanta on a late field goal), Falcons coach Mike Smith will try and punish Green Bay by giving Michael Turner a lot of carries, something the Pack didn’t really have an answer for last time around.

However, the Packers have been very sharp the last three weeks and seemed to discover a new facet to their offense in rookie running back James Starks. If Starks can get moving again, Aaron Rodgers will see a lot more open receivers.

Can’t see this game not being extremely close, but in the end, the Packers extra playoff pedigree will put them on top.

Packers.

Seahawks at Bears: Seattle pulled off the upset of wildcard weekend by knocking off the defending Superbowl champ Saints at Qwest Field. But two of the biggest things going for the ‘Hawks in that game, the element of surprise and raucous hometown support, won’t be there this time around.

As we saw last week, the Seahawks defense isn’t strong enough to hold any playoff-caliber team to under 24 points, so for Seattle to win they’ll have to have another explosion of points on offense. And as the Bears have the league’s second best run defense, the Seahawks most likely won’t get much help from their running game, putting a lot of weight on Matt Hasselbeck’s shoulders to repeat his performance against New Orleans.

The Bears have been solid rather than great for most of the year: they aren’t particularly special in any one area of the game. They are better than Seattle though but won’t underestimate them as the Saints did.

Chicago’s offensive line was a major weakness earlier in the season when the Seahawks beat them at Soldier Field. Jay Cutler took six sacks in that game, but the line has improved over the last half of the season.

As much as I’d like to be the one renegade to pick the Seahawks to pull off another huge upset, barring the Bears O-line falling apart again, I just can’t see it happening. Bears.

Jets at Patriots: New England laid an oldschool a**whuppin’ on New York last time these two teams met at Foxboro, crushing them 45-3 in early December. And as much as Rex Ryan has had to say since that happened, the chances of the Jets finding a way to beat Tom Brady in his own backyard Sunday seem very slim to most onlookers.

For the improbable to happen, the Jets will have to find a way to score points, lots of points. New England hasn’t been held to under 31 points since their Week 9 loss to Cleveland. That means New York running game will have to be a big factor in this one, not only in churning out first downs but in keeping the high-octane New England offense on the sideline. Perhaps even more vitally, Mark Sanchez is going to have to produce a performance far superior to anything we have seen from him recently.

On the other side of the field, New England will be well rested, but not rusty, because if anyone can get the most for his team out of a bye week, it’s Bill Belichick. You can be sure that Brady and the rest of Pats are fully aware of everything Ryan has been saying about them to the press, and they won’t be satisfied by anything but another blowout victory.

Closer than last time? Sure. Close enough for the Jets to squeak a victory? I wouldn’t count on it.

Patriots.

Picking NFL Wildcard Week

How I did last week: 11-5

Not bad in a week that was meaningless for many teams.

Record on the season: 135-96

Compared to a 83-52 regular season record in 2009 (or a 61 percent success rate), I actually did worse in 2010 with a success rate of around 58 percent. So now the goal is to improve on my 2009 postseason record of 4-7.

Saints at Seahawks: If last week's game between the Seahawks and the Rams (essentially the first game of the 'Hawks playoff run) proved anything, it's the significant effect that the Qwest Field crowd can have on a game. The stadium was truly rocking on Seattle's first drive – which ended in a touchdown and turned out to be all the points the Seahawks would need to own a low-scoring game – and it will be again come kickoff time.

But homefield advantage is just about the only factor going in Seattle's favor in this matchup. Despite their solid showing against St. Louis, this is still a 7-9 team (which has lost seven of its last 10 games) that limped into the playoffs through the paper thin NFC West .

Meanwhile the Saints are the defending Superbowl champs whose 11-5 record would have been sufficient to win the NFC South on another year. They also beat Seattle convincingly in Week 11, albeit in New Orleans. Drew Brees threw for 382 yards and four touchdowns in that game and I expect Sean Payton to try and attack the 'Hawks through the air again. And that's why New Orleans being down their two main running backs (Pierre Thomas and Chris Ivory) shouldn't hurt them too much. Saints.

Jets at Colts: Neither of these teams is as good as they were when they last met in the AFC championship game last January. Peyton Manning's receiving corps has been depleted by injuries this year while the Colts defense has fallen into the league's bottom half. The Jets defense hasn't been as stingy as advertised either, while Mark Sanchez and the rest of New York's offense appeared to have taken an even bigger step backward at times in 2010.

The Jets should be able to get the run going against Indy with Ladanian Tomlinson and Shonn Greene but they will have to throw it plenty too as the Colts run defense is often a little firmer in big games. And though Mark Sanchez had one of the best games of his career against the Colts last time out, it would be quite a personal turnaround for him to do it again on Saturday, given that he hasn't had a passer rating over 100 in his last five games.

It's also difficult to bet against Peyton Manning in a playoff game (particularly as he's effectively 4-0 in playoff games this year) even without some of his favorite targets around him. He'll like his chances to pick on Jets cornerback Antonio Cromartie and every other part of the New York secondary that isn't called Darrelle Revis. Colts.

Ravens at Chiefs: Another game where homefield advantage should play a significant role, as the Chiefs went 7-1 at Arrowhead this season, with their only loss coming at the hands of the Raiders, on the last game of the regular season once Kansas City had already clinched the division.

The biggest question surrounding the Chiefs, however, is the strength of their 2010 schedule. They've played only two teams with winning records, the Colts and the Chargers (twice), and they went 1-2 in those games. Kansas City definitely has its strengths, including a good running game, an improved passing game, and a defense that can be tough at times. But they are relatively untested against a team of Baltimore's quality.

The Ravens are a top-five run defense, and although they have been more vulnerable against the pass this year, if they focus on double teaming Chiefs deep-threat Dwayne Bowe on every play, they will like their chances of slowing down Matt Cassel and Kansas City's passing game.

One possible wildcard in this game is the matchup of the Ravens two offensive tackles, Michael Oher and Marshal Yanda, against the Chiefs talented pass-rushers, Tamba Hali and Wallace Gilberry. Hali and Gilberry have combined for 21 ½ sacks this year, while the Ravens O-line has allowed 40 sacks.

But if Joe Flacco can keep his cool in the face of the crowd noise and the Chiefs pass-rush and get some early points on the board, this could turn into a long game for Kansas City. Ravens.

Packers at Eagles: Funnily enough, had the Packers not knocked Kevin Kolb out of the first game of the season with a concussion, who knows if the remarkable redemption story of Michael Vick would have ever happened. But they did, and it did, and now Green Bay has to figure out how to stop Vick and the high octane Eagles offense in an elimination game.

In many ways, the Packers should be favored here. They beat Philly fairly convincingly in week 1, have a strong pass defense that can slow the Eagles explosive receivers down, and two young stars on their defensive line, Clay Matthews and B.J. Raji, that can get to Vick. On the other side of the ball, Aaron Rodgers has the ability to shred Philly's secondary, which is prone to mental lapses and poor tackling.

However, a couple elements swing in the Eagles favor. Andy Reid is quite possibly the best coach in the NFL (Don't believe me, look at what he has done with a very young and new team in what could have easily been a 8-8 or 7-9 transition year) and he has never lost at home in the wildcard round (4-0 record). He'll have thought of every possible edge for his team to beat Green Bay. Secondly, there's just something about this Eagles team. Whether it's the demolition of the Redskins on Monday Night Football, or the comeback of the year against the Giants at the Meadowlands, there's a moxie and self-belief in this team that could shine through the playoff games.

Finally, I think the X-Factor in this game could well be Eagles running back LeSean McCoy, who has played better and better as the season progressed, as the Packers aren't particularly strong against the run (18^th in the league). Eagles.