NFL Week 16

How I Did Last Week: 6-9

Record on the season: 119-82

Quick Picks this week, folks. Merry Christmas!!

Titans at Chiefs: Kansas City has been a lot better than Tennessee running the ball this year, and just a little better in run defense. Add in the facts that the Chiefs are at home and they have more to play for and you'd have to think this is Kansas City's game to blow. Chiefs.

Colts at Raiders: Indianapolis did a phenomenal job of stopping the Jaguars rushing attack last week, and their best chance of repeating that trick against the Raiders will once again be to take an early lead, forcing Oakland to pass the ball more. But the Raiders have a top-five passing defense and, with Austin Collie is out again, I think we might just see Peyton Manning's poor form return. Raiders.

Seahawks at Buccaneers: Part of me still can't believe that the Seahawks can lose this one, slip to 6-9, and still have a shot at winning the NFC West, whereas the 8-6 Bucs can't afford anything but a win in both their final games to even have a chance at an NFC wildcard berth. Bucs.

Giants at Packers: Aaron Rodgers returns and that's a big boost to Green Bay's chances in this a huge clash in the race for an NFC wildcard spot. However the Packers inability to establish the run will cost them because it will allow the Giants fearsome pass-rushers to solely focus on getting to Rodgers. Not to mention that the Giants will be smarting from allowing that Philly comeback. Giants.

Saints at Falcons: New Orleans losing to Baltimore last week took a bit of the luster off this matchup, as the Falcons would now have to lose this game and against the Panthers in Week 17 for New Orleans to have a chance to win the NFC South division. Falcons.

Ravens at Browns: Ravens.

Patriots at Bills: Patriots.

49ers at Rams: 49ers

Lions at Dolphins: Dolphins.

Redskins at Jaguars: Jaguars.

Jets at Bears: Bears.

Texans at Broncos: Texans.

Chargers at Bengals: Chargers.

Vikings at Eagles: Eagles.

NFL Week 16 Rankings

-But first some Monday night thoughts:

+I'll get to the Vikings and all their problems in a minute, but before that the Chicago Bears deserve a few kind words....Lord knows they haven't had many this year.

In the first half, the Bears looked probably as good as they have all year. Their defense smothered Adrian Peterson, and hurried Brett Favre: the Vikings' first four dries went punt, fumble, punt, punt.

Even more surprisingly the Chicago offensive line, much maligned all year, was able to give Jay Cutler great time in the pocket. One key match up was left tackle Chris Williams against Jared Allen, and the 14^th overall pick of the 2008 draft did a great job dealing with perhaps the league premier's pass rusher. Sweet redemption for Williams, who was moved to right tackle this summer to make room for veteran Orlando Pace at the start of the season. With the extra time in the pocket, Cutler was able to settle down, show off his cannon arm and have one of his better nights as a Bear.

Things turned around a little on both sides of the ball in the second half as the Vikings, led by number 4, got back into it. But even though Favre was able to find Sidney Rice from 6 yards out with 22 ticks left to tie the game, the Bears were the better team in overtime and would have won on their first possession had Robbie Gould not missed a 45 yarder. As it was, they capitalized on an Adrian Peterson fumble: Jay Cutler threw a 39 yard bomb down the sideline which Devin Aromashodu hauled in.

By the way, quick word on Aromashodu. Never heard of the 25 year-old out of Auburn? Well, he had less than 200 receiving yards coming into the game, despite having already played for four NFL teams. He almost doubled it on Monday when he tore up the Vikings secondary for 150 yards. Looked sharp doing it too. And Cutler sure looked happy to have receiver who was neither undersized (Johnny Knox) nor a converted kick returner (Devin Hester) to throw to.

+My, oh, my, another NFC early season powerhouse is in trouble. I talked about the potential dream matchup in the NFC title game between the Saints and Vikings a few months back. Doesn't look too likely now, does it?

Even had the Vikings come away with a win in overtime, it wouldn't had hid the truth about this team to anyone who actually watched the game. The NFL is all about a team's momentum going into the playoffs, not their early season record (think about those 2007 Giants, or 2008 Cardinals), and right now, the Vikings, just like the Saints, have none.

Its run defense isn't as intimidating anymore, and its secondary looks vulnerable (on the winning touchdown pass, Aromashodu basically just ran past Antoine Winfield). They miss E.J. Henderson at middle linebacker, where rookie Jasper Brinkley is a good run-stuffer but his pass coverage will be picked on in every playoff game Minnesota plays. Even Jared Allen has quieted down, only one sack in his last four games.

On offense, the Vikings still have Favre, who played well against Chicago, but the offensive line is having more and more trouble protecting him. He was hurried all game by the Panthers last week, and against the Bears, Anthony Herrera, Phil Loadholt and Bryant McKinnie all made mistakes.

Adrian Peterson looked focused, and ran like a man on a mission all day, only to crucially fumble in overtime. You just know the Vikings coaching staff have spent countless hours trying to work on AP's fumbling woes, and to see him continue to put the ball on the turf is very worrying. Just wrap the ball up, young man, you're too good for this to continue to happen to you.

Finally, the Vikings didn't look comfortable in the cold conditions in Chicago last night. Which is more bad news because by losing last night, they made it all the more likely they'll have to travel away from the Superdome during the course of the playoffs.

Now, don't quote me as saying the Saints or Vikings won't make a splash in the playoffs -they both have far too much talent to be completely ruled out- but if I'm Brad Childress, I'm putting a lot of effort into getting the guys pumped up to beat the snot out of the Giants next Sunday: Minnesota needs to pick up a head of steam.

The Fab Five:

1. Colts (14-1): Get ready to see some fresh new faces, if you insist on watching Indy face the Bills on Sunday. The trendy pick at this spot would be the Chargers, but I'm not about to completely disregard the Colts middle of the season run (where they beat the Patriots, the Ravens, the resurgent Titans and the Texans twice in five successive weeks) just yet.

2. Chargers (12-3): Looking for momentum Vikings and Saints? Check out the game tape of the Chargers destroying the Titans on Thursday. Now that's how you stay hot.

3. Eagles (11-4): The team that might be the biggest beneficiary of Minnesota's and New Orleans' woes. Almost put Dallas here, because they beat Philly earlier this year (and might well do so again Sunday for the NFC East crown), but two wins don't make me forget their December woes.

4. Cowboys (10-5): What I like about the Cowboys is that they have one of the best pass rush defenses in the NFL. When you go up against the best quarterbacks in the playoffs, you need that pass-rush. DeMarcus Ware is a stud, Anthony Spencer and Jay Ratliff are playing out of their skin. If Tony Romo can continue to play mistake-free (and that's a big if), the Cowboys might be in very good shape.

5. Patriots (10-5): That's right Saints fans. Enough has gone wrong with your team that you're now behind the team you walloped a month ago. Hey, a month is a long time in the NFL.

The Fat Five:

32. Rams (1-14): Watching Kurt Warner torch their defense for over 300 yards on Sunday, Rams fans must have felt far more than a decade removed from the days of the “Greatest Show on Turf”.

31. Lions (2-13): Please come back Matthew Stafford, I can't take much more of Drew Stanton and Daunte Culpepper.

30. Chiefs (3-11): At some point, Todd Haley and Scott Pioli's master rebuilding is going to have start showing results. 2 and 3 win seasons are not going to be accepted in Kansas City.

29. Redskins (4-11): Get destroyed by division rivals two weeks in a row? Check. Piss off your $100 million defensive tackle? Check. Make no effort to hide the fact that Jim Zorn won't be your head coach next season? Check. Good times in Washington, good times.

28. Bills (5-10): Cleveland flew out of the bottom five with three straight wins. Tampa Bay did just enough to crawl out by beating New Orleans. Welcome to the party Buffalo! Who knew that signing a 35-year old prima donna receiver with declining skills and declining production wouldn't be the solution to all your problems?

NFL Week 16

-The Colts made the right call pulling Peyton Manning. I know a lot of Colts fans and neutrals would have loved for Manning to play the whole game against the Jets. I suspect Manning himself may have been leaning that way.

But up 15-10, with a little over 5 minutes to go in the fourth quarter, Jim Caldwell made the call everyone had been anticipating all day. He pulled his star quarterback and, as it turned out, the plug on his perfect season.

The Jets scored 19 unanswered points as Manning's replacement, Curtis Painter, went 4 of 11 with an interception and a fumble, much to the frustration of the home fans.

But here's the truth of the matter. Even if the chances of Manning (who has never missed a professional start because of injury) getting injured in those final twenty minutes were very slim, it was not a chance Caldwell needed to take. 16-0 would have been a great achievement and very special. But according to how we measure football greatness, Superbowl victories, also entirely irrelevant.

The very fact that Painter looked so inept running the Indy offense should convince Colts fans that Caldwell made the right call. The drop-off at quarterback, should Manning get hurt, is just too big for them to risk it, whether Jim Sorgi or Painter steps in. Without Manning, I don't know if they'd even be a playoff team.

Now the hope of 16-0 is gone, don't expect Manning to take more than a few token snaps in Week 17.

-Way to back your way into the playoffs Saints. In their week 12 win over the Patriots, the Saints could nothing wrong. Drew Brees threw every pass with pinpoint accuracy, and shredded the New England defense for 371 yards and 5 TDs. People were starting to compare the explosiveness of their offense to that of the 2007 Patriots.

Four weeks later, and we have a very different picture of the Saints in our minds. They needed to overtime to overcome the Redskins, then squeaked by the Falcons. Last week, the Cowboys silenced the Superdome by handing New Orleans their first loss. Now the Saints give up a 17 point lead and lose in overtime to the 3-12 Buccaneers!?

You can't ignore their 13-0 start, but this team has weaknesses. You can run on them, as Carnell Williams did for 129 yards Sunday, and you can move the ball through the air (their secondary has given 583 passing yards the last two weeks). DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer of the Cowboys proved that a good pass rush can get to Drew Brees (You hear that Jared Allen, Trent Cole, and Clay Matthews?).

Sean Payton has got some tweaking to do if the Saints are to sizzle in the playoffs as they did earlier this season.

-After his explosive performances in the last few weeks, Eagles fans must have thought no one could stop DeSean Jackson....Champ Bailey proved them wrong. Make no mistake, this is exactly the kind of matchup the wily old cornerback looks forward to: left on a island, one on one, with a cocky young gun with a ton of speed and a ton of yards to his name this season.

The past two games Jackson had been on fire. 6 receptions for 178 yards and a TD against the Giants, 6 more for 140 yards and a TD against the Niners.

Ten minutes into the first quarter, it looked like business as usual. Jackson had caught three passes for 24 yards and a touchdown. Then the “Champ Clamp” went to work. DeSean's stats for the rest of the game: 1 catch for 9 yards.

Bailey picked off a pass intended for Jackson in the third quarter, and then in the fourth came his best play of the game.

On 3^rd and 8, Jackson ran a crossing pattern from right to left across the middle of the field. Donovan McNabb locked on to him and delivered the perfect pass, leading Jackson and seemingly just out of Bailey's reach. But the veteran hurled himself in front of Jackson and with his fingertips tapped the ball away, leaving both McNabb and Jackson shaking their heads in disbelief.

Donovan didn't look Jackson's way again for the rest of the game, picking on Andre Goodman's coverage of Jeremy Maclin instead to get the Eagles in range for the game-winning field goal.

Bailey sometimes doesn't get the recognition he deserves as one of the league's premier cover corners, but if Elvis Dumervil and the rest of the Broncos pass rush was able to get to McNabb in the second half, it was because of the coverage Bailey was providing down the field.

-The Oakland Raiders are the most undisciplined team in the NFL. 13 penalties, which cost Oakland 126 yards. Four of those were 15-yarders for unsportsmanlike conduct (twice), unnecessary roughness and taunting. Two Raiders, CB Stanford Routt TE Tony Stewart, were tossed from the game.

Got to do something about that Mr. Cable, got to.

-One more thing I know about the Raiders: Charlie Frye is not the answer at quarterback. Don't be fooled by the 333 yards passing. Three interceptions, and it would have been four had Eric Wright not come down with one foot out of bounds in the end-zone. Trust me on this, Frye is just as much as of project as JaMarcus Russell.

-Five Things I Liked on Sunday:

+The AFC Wild Card race staying murky till the very end.

+The 49ers giving more of the ball to Frank Gore in the second half and riding him to victory.

+The Texans showing some guts, and finally winning a big game this season.

+Matt Moore, in for Jake Delhomme, clocking his third straight good performance at QB for Carolina.

+Asante Samuel getting up high to pick Kyle Orton.

-Five Things I Didn't Like:

+All the NFC playoff teams being determined with a week still to play.

+The Giants, Jaguars, Seahawks and Bills pretty much not showing up for their Sunday games.

+The Chiefs losing their fifth straight after their potential season-changing win against Pittsburgh.

+Matt Hasselbeck throwing four interceptions for the second week in a row.

+Alex Smith, 6'4”, getting pass after pass batted down at the line of scrimmage. At least five by my count.

Picking NFL Week 16

-But first some Christmas night thoughts:

+On a cold night in Nashville, the Chargers produced an impressive display to top the Titans 42-17 and seize the number 2 seed in the AFC for the playoffs.

Philip Rivers threw for 264 yards and two touchdowns (watch his awesome athleticism on his first touchdown toss) , while LaDanian Tomlinson and Darren Sproles added two more touchdowns apiece on the ground.

Sure, the Titans were missing two of their starting linebackers, Keith Bulluck and David Thornton, but you couldn't help but be impressed with the way the Chargers gashed Tennessee's defense and moved the ball: they scored touchdowns on every one of their trips to the redzone, putting the game out of reach in the third quarter.

On the defensive side of the ball, although they struggled to contain Chris Johnson (they aren't the first and certainly won't be the last to fail in that department), they forced three key turnovers, picking off Vince Young twice and recovering his fumble.

+You look at the Chargers this season, who have now won ten games in a row, and you really wonder if they might be the best team in the NFL right now.

For much of the season, they have been behind the Colts, the Saints and the Vikings in most people's pecking order. Well, in the last three weeks, the Vikings have shown their frailties in losses to the Cardinals and Panthers while the Saints battled to close wins over the Redskins and Falcons before losing to the Cowboys last week.

The Colts haven't lost yet, so they can't be bumped from the top spot by the Chargers, but if the two teams played tomorrow, I'm not sure Indianapolis would be a shoo-in by any means....We could be in for one heck of an AFC championship game come January.

+The fairytale storyline of the year in the NFL is over: the Titans won't be the first team to rebound from a 0-6 start to make the playoffs.

They came close, thanks to Vince Young leading them on a winning touchdown drive in the dying seconds against the Cardinals and Rob Bironas' winning field goal in overtime against the Dolphins last week. But their loss to the Colts in Week 13 that dropped them to 5-7 was really the moment that broke the back of their challenge.

After watching Vince Young's return completely transform the Titans after those first 6 losses and it still not be enough to make the playoffs, I can't imagine it'll be anytime soon that we'll see a team undergo enough of a transformation to break that record.

-How I did last week: 6-10

The craziness of week 15, with the continual lead changes deep in the fourth quarter (that all seemed to go against me by the way) definitely took a few years off my life. No excuses for some of my horrible picks last week however, i.e. Saints and Redskins....

-Record on the Season: 60-44

Buccaneers at Saints: The Saints list of walking wounded is the longest in the NFL (apart from the Colts perhaps), and with the dream of the undefeated season gone, we should see a lot of backups getting playing time against the Bucs. The problem is: their backups are probably still better than the Bucs. Saints.

Broncos at Eagles: Brian Westbrook will return after two concussions against the Broncos. How scary might the Eagles offense be if Westbrook plays like he did when he carried the Eagles in the playoffs last year? One fun thing these two teams have in common: embarrassing losses to the Raiders this season. Eagles.

Bills at Falcons: Not a game that matters much or will be remembered for any length of time. No one can even be sure who will start at quarterback....for either team. Falcons, just cos they're at home.

Texans at Dolphins: The Dolphins and the Texans are two of the host of 7-7 teams in the AFC. Both have a slim shot at the playoffs, both know that one loss and they're done. Another toss-up matchup, but the Dolphins have played better in big games this year. Dolphins.

Panthers at Giants: Where did Matt Moore (60% completion rate, 4 TDs and 1 interception in his three starts since taking over from Jake Delhomme) come from? Where has the Julius Peppers who terrorized Brad Childress into trying to yank Brett Favre been this year? If those two play well again, the Panthers will definitely have a chance, but in the grand scheme of things, the Giants have more to play for. Giants.

Chiefs at Bengals: This is the kind of game the Bengals have played their worst football in all season. However Cincinnati will still want to win one for Chris Henry, and they also have to make sure they stay ahead of the Ravens in the AFC North. Bengals.

Seahawks at Packers: Green Bay lost a heart-breaker in Pittsburgh last week, where their defense, a strength all year, went AWOL. They shouldn't be too worried about Matt Hasselbeck passing for 500 yards (as Roethlisberger did) though. Packers.

Raiders at Browns: Any chance Jerome Harrison rushes for 286 yards in a game ever again in his career? What Harrison and Joshua Cribbs' two returns for touchdown hid was Brady Quinn's pedestrian performance: 10 of 17 for 66 yards and 2 interceptions. The Raiders will try to take away the run and make Quinn beat them through the air, and they'll fancy their chances. Raiders.

Jaguars at Patriots: The Patriots are (probably) going to get to the playoffs by the back door; not what was expected in the year of Tom Brady's return. The Jaguars are a quarterback away from being a very good team. Could be a close one, but again playing at Foxborough gives New England the edge. Patriots.

Ravens at Steelers: Wow, didn't the Steelers winning drive against the Packers last week feel like a Superbowl flashback? Only this time Pittsburgh was fighting to stay alive for the playoffs, not win the whole thing. This one will be close, as it always is when these teams face off. However, in my mind, two things swing the balance in Pittsburgh's favor: the Ravens needed overtime to beat the Steelers at home without Big Ben less than a month ago. With Roethlisberger back and the Heinz field faithful at full voice, Pittsburgh should have too much for Baltimore. Steelers.

Rams at Cardinals: Inconsistency, the Cardinals speak thy name. Thankfully the Rams have been consistent in their awfulness, so Arizona should be fine, no matter which team shows up. Cardinals.

Lions at 49ers: The Niners were outclassed by the Eagles last week, and now they'll get their own chance to outclass someone. The Lions, especially without Matthew Stafford, are terrible. Expect the 49ers defense to take over. 49ers.

Jets at Colts: Chasing history ain't easy at the best of times, but with the number of injuries the Colts have right now...The Jets, another 7-7 team, will want this one bad. But I just can't pick against the steely look on Peyton Manning's face a week ago in Jacksonville. He wants that undefeated season bad, and I know better than to pick against MVP Manning. Colts.

Cowboys at Redskins: The Cowboys scored a huge psychological victory by beating the Saints on Saturday, putting in great performances in all three phases of the game. Two days later, the Redskins laid an egg against the Giants. Last week the two teams look miles apart, and I can't believe one week will be enough for the Redskins to bridge that gap. Cowboys.

Vikings at Bears: The worst time to show weakness in football is December, and Minnesota have lost two of three so far in the business month this season. I wouldn't bet against Brett Favre wanting to play the whole game to right that wrong. Will Brad Childress try to stand up to him again? Vikings.