Picking NFL Conference Games

-How I did last weekend: 1-3

1-3, again! I didn't feel quite so horrible about myself after reading the staff of Pro Football Weekly's picks and seeing that very few amongst their ten experts did much better. Nonetheless with the benefit of hindsight, I realize I read far too much into the late-season slumps of the Saints and Vikings.

-Record on the playoffs: 2-6

It's comforting to know that even if I pick both conference games and the Super Bowl correctly, I still won't break .500 on the postseason...

Jets at Colts: Don't take anything away from the Saints-Vikings game, but to me, this is the most intriguing match-up of the weekend.

We learned last week that these Jets were more than just this season's Cinderella team, they are a real threat to go all the way. On the other hand, the Colts were consistently the best team in the NFL throughout the season till they sat their starters the last two games of the year (Greatest fact of the week: if Jim Caldwell hadn't pulled Peyton Manning and co. against the Jets in week 16, there's very little chance New York would be here right now. So that decision may not only end up costing the Colts a perfect season but also a Superbowl berth. Imagine the potential ire in the Circle City...).

Thing is, the Jets actually match up really well against the Colts. The Colts, just like the Chargers whom New York knocked off last week, don't have much of a running game to speak of. They were dead last in the NFL running the ball during the regular season, and only ran for 44 yards on 23 carries against the Ravens last week.

The Jets will fancy their chances of stopping Joseph Addai and Donald Brown and forcing Indy into a lot of obvious passing situations (Rex Ryan also made it clear to the media this week that the Jets' D will not be falling for one second for all the play action Indy likes to use). This is where the Jets shine. They will rush and pressure Manning all game long just like they did with Philip Rivers, while allowing their excellent secondary (I promise I won't give you another Darrelle Revis eulogy this week) to go to work covering the Colts receivers.

On the other side of the ball, another factor swings the balance in the Jets favor. The Colts aren't very good at stopping the run either, the bread and butter of New York's offense. Indy gave up over 126 rushing yards a game, while New York was running for 172 yards a game during the regular season. If Shonn Greene can continue to establish the run, and even break a couple big ones, the Colts are in trouble.

Of course, Peyton Manning is the great equalizer. He's the league MVP for the second successive year, and if anyone can break down the Jets vaunted defense, it's him. He is used to throwing the ball in obvious passing situations, is the best in the NFL at avoiding pressure and can probably put enough points on the board in one half, if the offense is in tune, to put the game out of reach.

Hate to say it, because it's a bit of a cliché, but it really does come down to how well Manning plays on Sunday. He's not always been perfect this season (his interception total of 16 was his highest since 2002), and threw two picks last week against the Ravens (one was called back for a penalty), but if he can avoid the big turnovers, it's hard to bet against the best player in the NFL.

Thought about the Jets long and hard, and can practically see how they might win on Sunday, but Indy has proved me wrong every time I've doubted them this season. Colts.

Vikings at Saints: Ah, the NFC title game we wished for most of the season, and then doubted would ever happen as the season drew to a close.

Both teams unexpectedly destroyed their opponents last week, playing as well as we had seen them do all season, giving us very few flaws to pick apart, making this game extremely difficult to predict. Will it come down to injuries? Can Percy Harvin perform despite his migraines? Will Pat Williams and Ray Edwards, two vital cogs of the Minnesota defense, be able to shake off their knocks? How about Jeremy Shockey (who gives the Saints offense a nastiness and swagger as well a solid option at tight end)?

As I see it, one key battle is Reggie Bush, who played out of his skin last week, against the Vikings outside linebackers Ben Leber and Chad Greenway. The Saints will probably try to get the ball out of Drew Brees' hands quickly to avoid the Vikings terrifying pass rush, and that might mean a lot of screen passes and quick throws to Bush on the outside. If Leber and Greenway, as well as Jasper Brinkley, can contain Bush and prevent the short passing game, Brees might find himself in a lot of uncomfortable passing situations.

On the other side of the ball, Adrian Peterson's surprising lack of production of late (he hasn't had a 100 yard day since November 15) is a concern for the Vikings. However, he does still has that homerun capability to scare the Saints into loading the box. Combine that with the chemistry between Brett Favre and Sidney Rice throwing the deep ball of late and it's enough to give Vikings the edge (though ball-hawk Darren Sharper spending three years in Minnesota and being very familiar with their system balances it out a little).

Expect an explosion of offense in a game that either team could run away with, but will probably, just because of the size of the occasion go down to the wire.

The deciding factor in the end: the Saints are at home. Watching last week's games, I couldn't help but feel the home fans in both New Orleans and Minnesota played some part in their team's win. The Vikings haven't traveled well this season (they're 4-4 away from the Metrodome this season), and the Superdome is going to a few notches up from loud on Sunday. The fans just might not let the Saints lose. Saints.