NFL Conference Games

Quick Hits:

-The key to the Colts-Jets title game turned out to be Indy's offensive line getting to grips with the Jets pass-rush. Colts fans must have been worried after Peyton Manning was sacked twice on his first four dropbacks, but those turned out to be the only two times the Jets got to him. After that, a combination of good protection and long drives with completion after completion entirely took the sting out of the Jets pass rush.

It'll be very interesting to see what Saints defensive coordinator Greg Williams does to attempt to dial up pressure on Manning in the Big One.

-You know one of the things that makes Manning so special as a quarterback: he loves to go back to the receiver with the hot hand. Example: With just over two minutes left in the second quarter against New York, on 2^nd and 10, deep in Colts territory, he threw an 18 yard strike to rookie receiver Austin Collie.

Next play, after the two minute warning, he tossed a beautiful pass down the seam just beyond the grasp of a Jets defender and into Collie's hands. 46 yard pick up, 1st down at the Jets 16.

On the next play, Collie runs the exact same route in the middle of the field, and Manning finds him in between the linebacker and the safety for a touchdown. 3 passes, 80 yards and a touchdown, all in under a minute and all to one receiver.

When Manning gets in that kind of zone, you sometimes feel that it's only him and the receiver out there on the field and no matter what the defense does, they can't stop him. Scary stuff. Scary good, of course.

Because the Jets did everything they could to take away Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark, Collie and Pierre Garcon were the two receivers Manning was locked into on Sunday, and they had almost 300 yards between them.

-Credit to the Jets offense and Mark Sanchez in particular, they really did everything they could to put New York in a winning position. First off, there was Sanchez's 80 yard touchdown pass to Braylon Edwards early in the second quarter (by the way, probably one of best executed offensive plays I've seen all season...both the route and the throw were absolutely perfect), then we saw a good bit of trickery by Brad Smith for a big completion that led to another TD in the first half.

The Jets did stall offensively in the second half, but there were hampered by the injury to Shonn Greene, and let's be honest, this team wasn't built to hang 30 points on the board, especially against a team as good as the Colts.

All in all, Mark Sanchez's postseason has to be one of the best ever by a rookie QB, and look for the Jets to be a power in the AFC next season.

-Rant of the week goes to Rex Ryan. Ryan went all 'Lou Pinella' on the officials after he thought (rightly) that they missed a late hit on 'the Sanchezise'. First, there was a headset and hat toss, and then he launched into a tirade that you didn't a lipreader to decipher. Top marks.

-The Saints march on in the Superdome, but Monday morning, after the euphoria of victory has worn off, they'll know that they were lucky to get through. Here are two stats that will tell you why.

a) 65 yards of offense on six possessions in the entire second half (only 4 more yards than Courtney Roby's kickoff return at the start of it). Now that's worrying Saints fans, I don't care what you tell me. The offense looked disjointed, and Drew Brees was fidgety and inaccurate after the interval.

b) 3 of 12. That's how they did on third down conversions against the Vikings (a lot of those were 3^rd and short too). They were unable to sustain drives by continually coming up short on the most important down. It prevented the offense from getting into a rhythm.

Why did they win then, you might ask yourself? Simple answer, Minnesota turnovers: 5 (You seen many games where one team turned the ball over five times go to overtime recently??), great defense that led to those turnovers, and a mistake-free overtime possession that led to the winning field goal.

-The Vikings couldn't hold onto the ball. Yes, the Saints do a great job of trying to punch the ball out every time they tackle, but still. 6 fumbles. In an NFC title game. That's just bad.

-Say what you will about Brett Favre, but you can't deny that he is one of the ultimate competitors in the NFL. Favre took hit after hit on Sunday (15 by Fox's last count). He grimaced in pain after a couple of them, and had to be supported off the field after another. But he stayed in there till the very end, and almost led his team to an improbable win.

There has to be some competitive fire burning in that man to trade in a quiet luxurious retirement for the beating he took out on the Superdome astroturf at forty years old. You almost found yourself wishing -despite yourself- that he would get that final shot at the Superbowl he so desperately craved.

-Matchup within the matchup of the week: Jabari Greer on Sidney Rice. Greer turned Rice, who had exploded against the Cowboys last week, into a non-factor: 4 catches for 43 yards (though he did get one touchdown). In fact on both of his interceptions, Favre was trying to force the ball to Rice when he was tightly covered.

Now Greer and the rest of the Saints secondary have to turn around and do the same thing to all four of the Colts receiving threats in two weeks' time.

Picking NFL Conference Games

-How I did last weekend: 1-3

1-3, again! I didn't feel quite so horrible about myself after reading the staff of Pro Football Weekly's picks and seeing that very few amongst their ten experts did much better. Nonetheless with the benefit of hindsight, I realize I read far too much into the late-season slumps of the Saints and Vikings.

-Record on the playoffs: 2-6

It's comforting to know that even if I pick both conference games and the Super Bowl correctly, I still won't break .500 on the postseason...

Jets at Colts: Don't take anything away from the Saints-Vikings game, but to me, this is the most intriguing match-up of the weekend.

We learned last week that these Jets were more than just this season's Cinderella team, they are a real threat to go all the way. On the other hand, the Colts were consistently the best team in the NFL throughout the season till they sat their starters the last two games of the year (Greatest fact of the week: if Jim Caldwell hadn't pulled Peyton Manning and co. against the Jets in week 16, there's very little chance New York would be here right now. So that decision may not only end up costing the Colts a perfect season but also a Superbowl berth. Imagine the potential ire in the Circle City...).

Thing is, the Jets actually match up really well against the Colts. The Colts, just like the Chargers whom New York knocked off last week, don't have much of a running game to speak of. They were dead last in the NFL running the ball during the regular season, and only ran for 44 yards on 23 carries against the Ravens last week.

The Jets will fancy their chances of stopping Joseph Addai and Donald Brown and forcing Indy into a lot of obvious passing situations (Rex Ryan also made it clear to the media this week that the Jets' D will not be falling for one second for all the play action Indy likes to use). This is where the Jets shine. They will rush and pressure Manning all game long just like they did with Philip Rivers, while allowing their excellent secondary (I promise I won't give you another Darrelle Revis eulogy this week) to go to work covering the Colts receivers.

On the other side of the ball, another factor swings the balance in the Jets favor. The Colts aren't very good at stopping the run either, the bread and butter of New York's offense. Indy gave up over 126 rushing yards a game, while New York was running for 172 yards a game during the regular season. If Shonn Greene can continue to establish the run, and even break a couple big ones, the Colts are in trouble.

Of course, Peyton Manning is the great equalizer. He's the league MVP for the second successive year, and if anyone can break down the Jets vaunted defense, it's him. He is used to throwing the ball in obvious passing situations, is the best in the NFL at avoiding pressure and can probably put enough points on the board in one half, if the offense is in tune, to put the game out of reach.

Hate to say it, because it's a bit of a cliché, but it really does come down to how well Manning plays on Sunday. He's not always been perfect this season (his interception total of 16 was his highest since 2002), and threw two picks last week against the Ravens (one was called back for a penalty), but if he can avoid the big turnovers, it's hard to bet against the best player in the NFL.

Thought about the Jets long and hard, and can practically see how they might win on Sunday, but Indy has proved me wrong every time I've doubted them this season. Colts.

Vikings at Saints: Ah, the NFC title game we wished for most of the season, and then doubted would ever happen as the season drew to a close.

Both teams unexpectedly destroyed their opponents last week, playing as well as we had seen them do all season, giving us very few flaws to pick apart, making this game extremely difficult to predict. Will it come down to injuries? Can Percy Harvin perform despite his migraines? Will Pat Williams and Ray Edwards, two vital cogs of the Minnesota defense, be able to shake off their knocks? How about Jeremy Shockey (who gives the Saints offense a nastiness and swagger as well a solid option at tight end)?

As I see it, one key battle is Reggie Bush, who played out of his skin last week, against the Vikings outside linebackers Ben Leber and Chad Greenway. The Saints will probably try to get the ball out of Drew Brees' hands quickly to avoid the Vikings terrifying pass rush, and that might mean a lot of screen passes and quick throws to Bush on the outside. If Leber and Greenway, as well as Jasper Brinkley, can contain Bush and prevent the short passing game, Brees might find himself in a lot of uncomfortable passing situations.

On the other side of the ball, Adrian Peterson's surprising lack of production of late (he hasn't had a 100 yard day since November 15) is a concern for the Vikings. However, he does still has that homerun capability to scare the Saints into loading the box. Combine that with the chemistry between Brett Favre and Sidney Rice throwing the deep ball of late and it's enough to give Vikings the edge (though ball-hawk Darren Sharper spending three years in Minnesota and being very familiar with their system balances it out a little).

Expect an explosion of offense in a game that either team could run away with, but will probably, just because of the size of the occasion go down to the wire.

The deciding factor in the end: the Saints are at home. Watching last week's games, I couldn't help but feel the home fans in both New Orleans and Minnesota played some part in their team's win. The Vikings haven't traveled well this season (they're 4-4 away from the Metrodome this season), and the Superdome is going to a few notches up from loud on Sunday. The fans just might not let the Saints lose. Saints.