-How I did last week: 14-2
For a few minutes, I had a shot at a perfect 16-0....The first time in my life that I might have had something in common with Peyton Manning.
-Record on the season: 83-52
After going over 60% on the regular season, let's move on to the playoffs, where the men are separated from the boys.
Jets at Bengals: Of the three wildcard match-up previews last weekend, the game in East Rutherford was probably the most lopsided. Not only did the Jets dominate the Bengals, but they had possession for more than 40 minutes and limited Cincinnati to five first downs and 70 yards of total offense. Now that's taking domination to a whole new level.
However there are few things that should be different for the Bengals this time around:
a) This game actually means something to them. I can't imagine it was easy for their bruised and battered players to get pumped for a meaningless game in freezing cold New Jersey last week.
b)They will have its full contingency of starters back. That includes their 96-yards per game running back Cedric Benson, their primary run-stuffer Domata Peko and their starting safety Chris Crocker. (Sorry Jets fans, that also means no more J.T. O'Sullivan cameos.)
c) The game is in Cincy, and that counts for something come playoff time.
Nonetheless they still face a formidable opponent in the Jets defense which is ranked number one in the NFL. New York will probably slow down the Bengals running game, and Darrelle Revis should prevent Chad Ochocinco from having too much of an impact.
It is on the other side of the ball that we can expect to see more significant change from last week when the Jets pounded the Bengals' D for 257 rushing yards using a stable of rushers, including Thomas Jones, rookie Shonn Greene and running back/quarterback/wide-out/kick returner/mailman Brad Smith.
This week expect the Bengals defense to cheat up, load the box and dare Mark Sanchez to beat them through the air. The overlooked stat of Sunday's blowout: Sanchez completed only 50% of his passes for only 63 yards. His quarterback rating is 63 on the season, worse than his backup's (Kellen Clemens checks in at a not-so-gaudy 63.8). The Bengals have possibly the best cornerback tandem in the league in Jonathan Joseph and Leon Hall, and they'll be quite happy to leave them one-on-one with the Jets receivers as long as Sanchez is under center.
If great pitching is what wins teams games in October, great quarterbacking is what does the trick in January. And the Jets just don't have that (yet). Bengals.
Eagles at Dallas: This is another game that would require a major role reversal for the Eagles to prevail after they were blanked by the Cowboys last week, but there are a few factors in their favor:
a) Andy Reid post-season record. He is undefeated in playoff openers in his decade as the Eagles head coach and will leave no rock unturned in his search to find the answers to beat Dallas. Couple that with Tony Romo's playoff record as a starter, 0-2, and the fact he hasn't quite shaken the “choker” moniker yet, and it all becomes very confusing.
b) Despite the fact they've lost twice to Dallas this year, the Eagles are still a very good team. At times this season, their offense has looked more explosive than any other in the league (thanks to Mr. Explosion himself DeSean Jackson), and their defense can still dial up pressure with the best of them.
A couple big plays by either unit (or even a monster DeSean Jackson kick return) could swing the balance in their favor.
However, the problem for the Eagles is that the Cowboys match up very well against them. The Eagles like to blitz, but Tony Romo is at his best when defenses come after him. The Eagles have fast receivers who have the ability to get open downfield when McNabb has time in the pocket, but the Cowboys have a great pass rush that has sacked McNabb 7 times in two games this season.
If Philadelphia has any shot at beating Dallas, my money on Andy Reid to find it, but until then, even though my heart says Birds, my head says 'Boys....firmly. Cowboys.
Ravens at Patriots: The only match-up we didn't already see last weekend. The two teams did play earlier this season in Foxborough though, a game the Patriots won 27-21 thanks to a Mark Clayton drop on 4th down in the final seconds.
Both teams would have to do some serious patchwork -Baltimore on offense, New England on defense- to advance much further in the playoffs, but don't think for one second that that will make this game any less competitive or hard-fought.
Had Wes Welker not torn up his knee in last week's game in Houston, this pick would have gone far more comfortably to the Patriots. However Welker's injury is a huge blow for New England. Not only does Welker lead the NFL in receptions (123), but he has more yards (1348) than Randy Moss this season.
For a Patriots team that has no running game to speak of, losing Welker means that any team they face, including the Ravens, will double cover Randy Moss every chance they get. Tom Brady is simply going to have to go elsewhere with the ball, so...Welcome to the party, Julian Edelman. The rookie out of Kent State, who will start in place of Welker Sunday, has become the talk of the town in Boston this week.
If Edelman, along with Ben Watson, Sam Aiken and *gasp* Joey Galloway, can catch some balls and take some of the pressure off Moss, the New England offense should be able to put more points on the board than the Ravens. If not, expect Baltimore to take over the game and Ray Rice to work the Patriots sub-par defense on the ground.
Nonetheless, the postseason super-combo of Brady and Belichick and the Foxborough homefield advantage (the Patriots are undefeated there this year) are enough to swing my vote. Patriots.
Packers at Cardinals: Anyone who has watched the Cardinals play this season knows exactly what to expect from them. A complete lack of consistency.
Their inconsistency was perfectly captured in their week 13 and 14 games. In week 13, they produced one of the performances of the season to completely outclass the high-flying Vikings 30-17. Yet, the following week they tripped up in San Francisco, turning the ball over five times and getting handled comfortably 24-9 by the 49ers.
The truth of the matter is no one really knows which team will show up Sunday: the one that made that memorable run to the Superbowl last season, or the one that lost twice to the 8-8 49ers. Nonetheless, even they don't play their best, I can't see the Cardinals getting pushed around as easily by the Packers as they were last week.
Speaking of the Packers, they have been consistent. Consistently good. They have won 7 of their last 8 (their loss during that run came on the last play of their game against the Steelers, by the way, a game they really should have prevailed in) and Aaron Rodgers is looking every bit the franchise quarterback Mike McCarthy dreamed him to be.
It's hard to find many flaws in this Green Bay team. Its defense and offensive line looked porous earlier this season, but both have been shored up in the second half. If there is one weak link the Cardinals will look to exploit with their excellent receiver core, it's backup cornerback Jarrett Bush who has started in Al Harris' place ever since the veteran got hurt.
All in all, barring a monstrous day from Kurt Warner and the Cardinals receivers, I think this young Packers team will stop any chance of another Cardinals Superbowl run. Packers.
No comments:
Post a Comment