NFL Wilcard Weekend

Game Recaps:

Saints at Seahawks

If you had to pick one lock going into the weekend, it would have been the Saints getting the better of the Seahawks. But Seattle flipped the script on the defending Superbowl champs, overcoming a slow start that saw them fall behind 10-0. The game turned into an offensive shootout, and Seattle just kept scoring thanks to sterling performances from its quarterback Matt Hasselbeck and its comeback running back Marshawn Lynch.

Jets at Colts

The big-talking Rex Ryan got his revenge on the team that sent him and his Jets packing in the AFC Championship game last year. The two moments that changed the course of Saturday’s game were the Jets two long touchdown drives which ate up over 15 minutes of second half clock. As is always the case, keeping Manning off the field proved key, although Mark Sanchez awaking from the dead to throw three vital completions and get the Jets within field goal range at the very end certainly didn’t hurt either.

Ravens at Chiefs

Another team that showed itself capable of sustaining long, back-breaking drives this weekend was the Ravens. Baltimore's offense chewed up almost 42 minutes of clock against Kansas City and converted 10 of 18 third and fourth downs. That, along with the Ravens’ D shutting down Dwayne Bowe and limiting the Chiefs running game, proved far more than Kansas City could handle.

Packers at Eagles

Green Bay repeated its early season victory over Philadelphia by limiting the big explosive plays of the Eagles offense. The key difference proved to be in the red zone where the Packers were typically efficient, scoring three touchdowns, and the Eagles were typically sloppy (on both sides of the ball). Philly hung around, thanks a positive turnover ratio, but Michael Vick’s inaccurate endzone throw in the final minute ended up in Packers cornerback Tramon Williams’ arms.

Five (Not So) Quick Hits:

1/ Talk about some suicidal 4^th down penalties by losing teams this weekend. The first came Saturday when the Colts backup receiver Taj Smith ran into the Jets punter giving New York a huge first down with just over 3 minutes to play in the game.

The second came Sunday when Chiefs backup linebacker Demorrio Williams jumped offside on a punt to give the Ravens a fresh set of downs on the drive that ultimately put the game beyond Kansas City's reach.

Did those plays ultimately change the outcome of either game? Probably not. But in playoff season, with the margins of success and failure are so slender, you never know...

2/ Can you believe that a quarterback as good as Peyton Manning now has a playoff record of 9-10?

3/ Rough day for Eagles right tackle Winston Justice who just couldn’t handle the explosive speed of Clay Matthews coming off the edge. In the third quarter, Matthews got him to false start (for the second time in the game). On the very next play, Justice actually committed two penalties, moving early and then putting a blatant hold on Matthews. Andy Reid had seen enough: for the next series, Justice got the hook and spent the rest of the game on a lonely spot of the bench.

4/ Gotta be excited for those AFC division rivalries that will be renewed next week. Doesn’t get much more exciting as a football fan than Baltimore against Pittsburgh and New York versus New England.

5/ You think the Bears might be excited that they get to face the Seahawks and not the Eagles?

Studs of the Wildcard Week:

a. Seahawks quarterback Matt Hasselbeck: Some questioned whether the 35-year-old veteran should even get this start after Charlie Whitehurst’s strong showing against the Rams. Maybe that was the fuel he needed to take it to the Saints. He was excellent, throwing four touchdown passes and continually leaving the New Orleans secondary confused. He completed 22 of 35 passes for 272 yards, and avoided mistakes after throwing an early interception.

b. Ravens tight end Todd Heap: Just when Baltimore appeared to be struggling to come up with ways to move the chains at the end of the second quarter, Joe Flacco hit Heap twice on consecutive plays with big passes over the middle. The drive ended in a touchdown, and Flacco had found his go-to guy for the rest of the game. Heap finished with ten catches for 108 yards.

c. Jets safety Eric Smith: Safeties play a key role when it comes to dealing with Peyton Manning, because they have to be careful of not allowing the deep completion, while also stepping up to limit the yards gained by the short passing game. Smith (not even a starter earlier this year) walked that thin line very well, making seven tackles (many of them for short gains) and breaking up two passes.

Duds of the Wildcard Week:

a. Saints secondary: Safety Darren Sharper said it himself: Hasselbeck spent the afternoon throwing the ball to open receivers. Well, that might be a bit of an exaggeration, but there were repeated instances of blown coverage by the New Orleans secondary, particularly on a couple of the Seahawks touchdowns. For a unit that was so impressive in last year’s postseason, you have to wonder if complacency set in.

b. Chiefs quarterback Matt Cassel: Tough day for Cassel who completed only 9 of his 18 pass attempts for a total of 70 yards. The Chiefs were on and off the field so quickly that he seemed unable to establish any kind of rhythm. He threw three picks to boot, to finish with a lowly passer rating of 20.4.

c. Eagles kicker David Akers: Every postseason at least one kicker seems to crumble under the pressure and Akers is the first this year. He missed two of his three field goals, a 41-yarder and a 34-yarder. Granted, the first miss was into a fierce wind, but the second was inexcusable, as those three extra points would have completely altered the end-of-game scenario.

Rookie of the Week:

Packers running back James Starks: The skinny on Green Bay’s offense is that they can’t run the ball. Well, the rookie sixth-round pick out of Buffalo (the college) did a phenomenal job of discrediting that nugget of common knowledge by rushing for 123 yards against Philly. He did it mostly in small- and medium-sized chunks too (his longest run was for 27 yards), allowing the Packers to continually have Aaron Rodgers in 3rd-and-short situations.

Play of the Week: No surprise here: the honors go to Marshawn Lynch, for one of the most beastly runs that I have ever seen.

Picking NFL Wildcard Week

How I did last week: 11-5

Not bad in a week that was meaningless for many teams.

Record on the season: 135-96

Compared to a 83-52 regular season record in 2009 (or a 61 percent success rate), I actually did worse in 2010 with a success rate of around 58 percent. So now the goal is to improve on my 2009 postseason record of 4-7.

Saints at Seahawks: If last week's game between the Seahawks and the Rams (essentially the first game of the 'Hawks playoff run) proved anything, it's the significant effect that the Qwest Field crowd can have on a game. The stadium was truly rocking on Seattle's first drive – which ended in a touchdown and turned out to be all the points the Seahawks would need to own a low-scoring game – and it will be again come kickoff time.

But homefield advantage is just about the only factor going in Seattle's favor in this matchup. Despite their solid showing against St. Louis, this is still a 7-9 team (which has lost seven of its last 10 games) that limped into the playoffs through the paper thin NFC West .

Meanwhile the Saints are the defending Superbowl champs whose 11-5 record would have been sufficient to win the NFC South on another year. They also beat Seattle convincingly in Week 11, albeit in New Orleans. Drew Brees threw for 382 yards and four touchdowns in that game and I expect Sean Payton to try and attack the 'Hawks through the air again. And that's why New Orleans being down their two main running backs (Pierre Thomas and Chris Ivory) shouldn't hurt them too much. Saints.

Jets at Colts: Neither of these teams is as good as they were when they last met in the AFC championship game last January. Peyton Manning's receiving corps has been depleted by injuries this year while the Colts defense has fallen into the league's bottom half. The Jets defense hasn't been as stingy as advertised either, while Mark Sanchez and the rest of New York's offense appeared to have taken an even bigger step backward at times in 2010.

The Jets should be able to get the run going against Indy with Ladanian Tomlinson and Shonn Greene but they will have to throw it plenty too as the Colts run defense is often a little firmer in big games. And though Mark Sanchez had one of the best games of his career against the Colts last time out, it would be quite a personal turnaround for him to do it again on Saturday, given that he hasn't had a passer rating over 100 in his last five games.

It's also difficult to bet against Peyton Manning in a playoff game (particularly as he's effectively 4-0 in playoff games this year) even without some of his favorite targets around him. He'll like his chances to pick on Jets cornerback Antonio Cromartie and every other part of the New York secondary that isn't called Darrelle Revis. Colts.

Ravens at Chiefs: Another game where homefield advantage should play a significant role, as the Chiefs went 7-1 at Arrowhead this season, with their only loss coming at the hands of the Raiders, on the last game of the regular season once Kansas City had already clinched the division.

The biggest question surrounding the Chiefs, however, is the strength of their 2010 schedule. They've played only two teams with winning records, the Colts and the Chargers (twice), and they went 1-2 in those games. Kansas City definitely has its strengths, including a good running game, an improved passing game, and a defense that can be tough at times. But they are relatively untested against a team of Baltimore's quality.

The Ravens are a top-five run defense, and although they have been more vulnerable against the pass this year, if they focus on double teaming Chiefs deep-threat Dwayne Bowe on every play, they will like their chances of slowing down Matt Cassel and Kansas City's passing game.

One possible wildcard in this game is the matchup of the Ravens two offensive tackles, Michael Oher and Marshal Yanda, against the Chiefs talented pass-rushers, Tamba Hali and Wallace Gilberry. Hali and Gilberry have combined for 21 ½ sacks this year, while the Ravens O-line has allowed 40 sacks.

But if Joe Flacco can keep his cool in the face of the crowd noise and the Chiefs pass-rush and get some early points on the board, this could turn into a long game for Kansas City. Ravens.

Packers at Eagles: Funnily enough, had the Packers not knocked Kevin Kolb out of the first game of the season with a concussion, who knows if the remarkable redemption story of Michael Vick would have ever happened. But they did, and it did, and now Green Bay has to figure out how to stop Vick and the high octane Eagles offense in an elimination game.

In many ways, the Packers should be favored here. They beat Philly fairly convincingly in week 1, have a strong pass defense that can slow the Eagles explosive receivers down, and two young stars on their defensive line, Clay Matthews and B.J. Raji, that can get to Vick. On the other side of the ball, Aaron Rodgers has the ability to shred Philly's secondary, which is prone to mental lapses and poor tackling.

However, a couple elements swing in the Eagles favor. Andy Reid is quite possibly the best coach in the NFL (Don't believe me, look at what he has done with a very young and new team in what could have easily been a 8-8 or 7-9 transition year) and he has never lost at home in the wildcard round (4-0 record). He'll have thought of every possible edge for his team to beat Green Bay. Secondly, there's just something about this Eagles team. Whether it's the demolition of the Redskins on Monday Night Football, or the comeback of the year against the Giants at the Meadowlands, there's a moxie and self-belief in this team that could shine through the playoff games.

Finally, I think the X-Factor in this game could well be Eagles running back LeSean McCoy, who has played better and better as the season progressed, as the Packers aren't particularly strong against the run (18^th in the league). Eagles.

NFL Wildcard Week

-My prediction of another weekend of uncompetitive football almost came true. With less than five minutes gone in the second half of the last game of the weekend, Larry Fitzgerald scored on a 33-yard touchdown pass to put the Cardinals up 31-10 over the Packers.

With the Bengals, Eagles and Patriots having already limped out of the playoffs after producing poor performances, it looked like the entire weekend was about to whizz by without a single good game.

Thankfully, Aaron Rodgers and the Packer offense were scintillating after that Fitzgerald TD, scoring 35 points and forcing the game into overtime. Their second half display breathed some life into what had been a very dull weekend.

The Bengals couldn’t produce the passing game they desperately needed in order to mount a successful comeback against the Jets. The Eagles had no answer to Tony Romo and the Cowboys offense and the Patriots shot themselves in the foot with early turnovers.

All three teams were booed by their fans at some point during their games (both the Patriots and Bengals were at home), and can you blame them? After the emotional rollercoaster that is a season in the NFL, the very least the fans deserve is a competitive playoff display to prove to them the journey was worth it.

Philadelphia, New England and Cincinnati all laid a massive egg in that respect this weekend.

-Did the NFL very quietly and discreetly introduce a new model of football for the playoffs sometime last week? Because no one could seem to hold onto the ball.

There were 14 fumbles in the four wildcard games. I’m certainly no math quiz but I think that works out to more than three a game. That seems high, given that we were supposed to be watching eight of the best teams in football.

Not to mention all the dropped passes on display: the Jets Braylon Edwards’s drop in the endzone Saturday in particular springs to mind, but a number of Green Bay receivers were also guilty on Sunday.

-A quick thought on what is rapidly becoming a highly controversial no-call. The blogosphere is blowing up today with talk of the no-call for Michael Adams grabbing Aaron Rodgers’ facemask as he forced the fumble in what turned out to be the decisive play of the Green Bay-Arizona overtime.

It’s certainly an interesting case because the facemask contact definitely occurred after Adams’ arm had stripped the ball and forced the fumble. The contact was also incidental in the sense that it didn’t cause the fumble or have an effect on the play.

However critics of the no-call argue that defenders cannot touch a quarterback’s facemask in any situation without some yellow laundry being tossed.

As Peter King pointed out, once the fumble has occurred, the officials’ eyes are supposed to be focused on the ball rather than the quarterback and his facemask. Furthermore, in the chaos that usually transpires when the ball is fumbled, it is pretty common for penalties, that in normal play would be called, to be ignored.

It will be interesting to see if this play, because it occurred in such a crucial situation in such a crucial playoff game and the hit was put on a quarterback not a role player, will force the NFL to yet another rule reconsideration.

-Five superstars of the weekend:

1) Kurt Warner, Cardinals: Best performance by a passer this weekend. Simple as that. He failed to connect on only 4 of the 33 passes he threw, and torched the Green Bay secondary (particularly in the middle of the field) for 379 yards and 5 TDs. Is Warner about to deliver another very special January?

2) Anthony Spencer and DeMarcus Ware, Cowboys: The premier pass rushing combo in the NFL right now. Bar none. They combined for three sacks and countless other pressures. Brett Favre won’t be looking forward to seeing them next week.

3) Julian Edelman, Patriots: There was so much pressure on Edelman coming into this game to step up and be a Wes Welker clone. He did a pretty darn good job, catching two touchdown passes, and showing a fantastic ability to keep moving after the first hit. He also had a wonderful punt return of 28 hard yards.

4) Greg Jennings, Packers: Jennings was freakishly good against the Cards. No need to read about it, just watch.

5) Cedric Benson, Bengals: For much of the game he was the Bengals only source of offense. Dragged Cincinnati back into the contest with a 47 yards TD run in the fourth quarter. He’s big, strong, and has a nasty change of direction.

Honorable mention: Shonn Greene and Mark Sanchez (Jets), Felix Jones (Cowboys), Vince Wilfork (Patriots), Dwan Edwards and Ray Rice (Ravens), and Steve Breaston (Cardinals).


-Five duds of the weekend:

1) Shayne Graham, Bengals: As a kicker, it’s pretty hard to make it to number 1 in the dud list, so that gives you an idea of the kind of day Graham had against the Jets. He missed two crucial field goals, from only 28 and 35 yards, in the second half. The former Pro Bowler couldn’t handle the pressure of the big stage.

2) Chad Ochocinco, Bengals: Ochocinco doesn’t really ‘do’ common sense, so there’s not much point in explaining to him the stupidity of giving the best cover corner in the league extra ammunition to shut you down by calling him out in the national media. Darrelle Revis certainly didn’t look like he needed a brown paper bag to cover you, Chad…either time.

3) Donovan McNabb, Eagles: McNabb opened up an offseason of speculation about his job in Philly after two bad performances against Dallas. He held the ball too long, took four sacks, and failed to get the offense moving.

4) Carson Palmer, Bengals: Palmer needed to have a big game for Bengals in their first playoff appearance since 2005. He ended up showing less poise than the rookie across from him Mark Sanchez. He looked jittery on his early throws, throwing the ball too high and not following through properly.

5) Nick Collins, Patriots: Before the game, whispers emerged from the Cardinals camp that they believed they could attack the Packers in the middle of the field with their passing game. What an understatement that turned out to be! Steve Breaston, Larry Fitzgerald, and Early Doucet practically set up camp between the Green Bay hash marks. Collins, the primary safety, has to be the fall guy for this. That was his turf to cover.

Honorable mention: Tom Brady and Randy Moss (Patriots), Bryant McFadden, Antrel Rolle and Neil Rackers (Cardinals), Sheldon Brown (Eagles).

Picking NFL Wildcard Games

-How I did last week: 14-2

For a few minutes, I had a shot at a perfect 16-0....The first time in my life that I might have had something in common with Peyton Manning.

-Record on the season: 83-52

After going over 60% on the regular season, let's move on to the playoffs, where the men are separated from the boys.

Jets at Bengals: Of the three wildcard match-up previews last weekend, the game in East Rutherford was probably the most lopsided. Not only did the Jets dominate the Bengals, but they had possession for more than 40 minutes and limited Cincinnati to five first downs and 70 yards of total offense. Now that's taking domination to a whole new level.

However there are few things that should be different for the Bengals this time around:

a) This game actually means something to them. I can't imagine it was easy for their bruised and battered players to get pumped for a meaningless game in freezing cold New Jersey last week.

b)They will have its full contingency of starters back. That includes their 96-yards per game running back Cedric Benson, their primary run-stuffer Domata Peko and their starting safety Chris Crocker. (Sorry Jets fans, that also means no more J.T. O'Sullivan cameos.)

c) The game is in Cincy, and that counts for something come playoff time.

Nonetheless they still face a formidable opponent in the Jets defense which is ranked number one in the NFL. New York will probably slow down the Bengals running game, and Darrelle Revis should prevent Chad Ochocinco from having too much of an impact.

It is on the other side of the ball that we can expect to see more significant change from last week when the Jets pounded the Bengals' D for 257 rushing yards using a stable of rushers, including Thomas Jones, rookie Shonn Greene and running back/quarterback/wide-out/kick returner/mailman Brad Smith.

This week expect the Bengals defense to cheat up, load the box and dare Mark Sanchez to beat them through the air. The overlooked stat of Sunday's blowout: Sanchez completed only 50% of his passes for only 63 yards. His quarterback rating is 63 on the season, worse than his backup's (Kellen Clemens checks in at a not-so-gaudy 63.8). The Bengals have possibly the best cornerback tandem in the league in Jonathan Joseph and Leon Hall, and they'll be quite happy to leave them one-on-one with the Jets receivers as long as Sanchez is under center.

If great pitching is what wins teams games in October, great quarterbacking is what does the trick in January. And the Jets just don't have that (yet). Bengals.

Eagles at Dallas: This is another game that would require a major role reversal for the Eagles to prevail after they were blanked by the Cowboys last week, but there are a few factors in their favor:

a) Andy Reid post-season record. He is undefeated in playoff openers in his decade as the Eagles head coach and will leave no rock unturned in his search to find the answers to beat Dallas. Couple that with Tony Romo's playoff record as a starter, 0-2, and the fact he hasn't quite shaken the “choker” moniker yet, and it all becomes very confusing.

b) Despite the fact they've lost twice to Dallas this year, the Eagles are still a very good team. At times this season, their offense has looked more explosive than any other in the league (thanks to Mr. Explosion himself DeSean Jackson), and their defense can still dial up pressure with the best of them.

A couple big plays by either unit (or even a monster DeSean Jackson kick return) could swing the balance in their favor.

However, the problem for the Eagles is that the Cowboys match up very well against them. The Eagles like to blitz, but Tony Romo is at his best when defenses come after him. The Eagles have fast receivers who have the ability to get open downfield when McNabb has time in the pocket, but the Cowboys have a great pass rush that has sacked McNabb 7 times in two games this season.

If Philadelphia has any shot at beating Dallas, my money on Andy Reid to find it, but until then, even though my heart says Birds, my head says 'Boys....firmly. Cowboys.

Ravens at Patriots: The only match-up we didn't already see last weekend. The two teams did play earlier this season in Foxborough though, a game the Patriots won 27-21 thanks to a Mark Clayton drop on 4^th down in the final seconds.

Both teams would have to do some serious patchwork -Baltimore on offense, New England on defense- to advance much further in the playoffs, but don't think for one second that that will make this game any less competitive or hard-fought.

Had Wes Welker not torn up his knee in last week's game in Houston, this pick would have gone far more comfortably to the Patriots. However Welker's injury is a huge blow for New England. Not only does Welker lead the NFL in receptions (123), but he has more yards (1348) than Randy Moss this season.

For a Patriots team that has no running game to speak of, losing Welker means that any team they face, including the Ravens, will double cover Randy Moss every chance they get. Tom Brady is simply going to have to go elsewhere with the ball, so...Welcome to the party, Julian Edelman. The rookie out of Kent State, who will start in place of Welker Sunday, has become the talk of the town in Boston this week.

If Edelman, along with Ben Watson, Sam Aiken and *gasp* Joey Galloway, can catch some balls and take some of the pressure off Moss, the New England offense should be able to put more points on the board than the Ravens. If not, expect Baltimore to take over the game and Ray Rice to work the Patriots sub-par defense on the ground.

Nonetheless, the postseason super-combo of Brady and Belichick and the Foxborough homefield advantage (the Patriots are undefeated there this year) are enough to swing my vote. Patriots.

Packers at Cardinals: Anyone who has watched the Cardinals play this season knows exactly what to expect from them. A complete lack of consistency.

Their inconsistency was perfectly captured in their week 13 and 14 games. In week 13, they produced one of the performances of the season to completely outclass the high-flying Vikings 30-17. Yet, the following week they tripped up in San Francisco, turning the ball over five times and getting handled comfortably 24-9 by the 49ers.

The truth of the matter is no one really knows which team will show up Sunday: the one that made that memorable run to the Superbowl last season, or the one that lost twice to the 8-8 49ers. Nonetheless, even they don't play their best, I can't see the Cardinals getting pushed around as easily by the Packers as they were last week.

Speaking of the Packers, they have been consistent. Consistently good. They have won 7 of their last 8 (their loss during that run came on the last play of their game against the Steelers, by the way, a game they really should have prevailed in) and Aaron Rodgers is looking every bit the franchise quarterback Mike McCarthy dreamed him to be.

It's hard to find many flaws in this Green Bay team. Its defense and offensive line looked porous earlier this season, but both have been shored up in the second half. If there is one weak link the Cardinals will look to exploit with their excellent receiver core, it's backup cornerback Jarrett Bush who has started in Al Harris' place ever since the veteran got hurt.

All in all, barring a monstrous day from Kurt Warner and the Cardinals receivers, I think this young Packers team will stop any chance of another Cardinals Superbowl run. Packers.