NFL Preview: Part 3

Top 5 non-playoff teams most likely to make the playoffs this year:

AFC:

Pittsburgh Steelers:

There are plenty of good reasons the Steelers won't make the playoffs this season:

1/ They are without their star quarterback, Ben Roethlisberger, for the first four games of the year.

2/ Once he returns, they face a brutal schedule, including games against the Saints, the Jets, the Ravens, the Bengals (twice), the Patriots.

3/ The AFC North is fast becoming the second toughest division in the NFL, behind only to the NFC East. Both the Ravens and the Bengals were pretty darn good last year, and both should be even better this year (Baltimore, with its host of new wide receivers, in particular).

However, one thing tells me that the Steelers can overcome all of this adversity: history.

The franchise hasn't missed the playoffs for two consecutive seasons since 1999 and 2000. They've played in the postseason six of the last nine years, and won two of the last five Superbowls.

Moreover, because of his off-season problems, Pittsburgh most important player, Roethlisberger, will be playing with a massive chip on his shoulder this season. Always known as a fiery competitor, he's going to want to win football games like never before in 2010. I imagine being booed in every stadium but Heinz Field will only add fuel to that fire.

Bottom Line: A decade of NFL success doesn't happen by accident. The Steelers are still one of the league's best organizations and will undoubtedly be in the playoff mix, at the very least, come late December, early January.

Houston Texans

The Texans haven't had a losing record since 2006. Despite that fact,the franchise (founded in 2002) has yet to play in a single postseason game. The primary reason? The Indianapolis Colts.

The Colts have had a stranglehold on the AFC South since its inception, also in 2002, winning the division six times in its eight year existence. Indianapolis has also battered Houston head-to-head during those years: they are 15-1 all-time against the Texans.

While the Colts are still favored to win the AFC South this season, the Texans should have a good shot at an AFC Wild card berth. Their passing game is in the league's top tier, they have a running back, Arian Foster, that many pundits are expecting to have a big year, and their defense has a number of exciting young players (Brian Cushing, DeMeco Ryans, Mario Williams, Amobi Okoye).

Bottom Line: If any NFL team is due a playoff appearance, it's the Texans. Of course that doesn't mean it will happen, but Houston come out losers in a lot of close games last year. Turn some of those into Ws and they should be in.

NFC

San Francisco 49ers:

The 49ers have timed their resurgence perfectly. With Kurt Warner too old (and retired) and Sam Bradford too young (and green), Alex Smith has a good chance to take San Francisco to a new level in the NFC West's power vacuum.

Both the Seahawks and the Rams seem on the road to losing seasons in 2010 and unless Derek Anderson can metamorphosis into the quarterback he was in 2007 (when he led the Browns to a 10-6 record and went to the Pro Bowl), the Cardinals could be too.

Meanwhile the 49ers have stockpiled a talented roster through a series of good drafts in the last five years. Last season, they started 3-1 and went 3-1 in their last four games on the way to a 8-8 record. Had it not been for a brutal October and early November (they went 1-5), they might well have been a playoff team.

The 49ers also went 5-1 against divisional foes last year, another factor that should be a boost to their playoff chances.

Bottom Line: A 9-7 season might well be enough to carry the division and, barring a Smith meltdown, San Francisco looks a good bet to post a winning record.

Atlanta Falcons

Like the Texans, the Falcons just missed out on the playoffs last season as they finished with a 9-7 record.

Atlanta has one the league's best young quarterbacks in Matt Ryan, as well as a number of other offensive weapons in running back Michael Turner, Hall of Fame-bound tight end Tony Gonzalez and Pro Bowl wideout Roddy White.

If Ryan can be a little more consistent and elevate his game when he plays top opponents (the Falcons only beat one playoff-bound team, the Jets, last year), Atlanta could lock up a wildcard berth, though challenging the Saints for the division is probably beyond the Falcons this season.

Bottom Line: It's a big year for Ryan. But with a two years of NFL experience under his belt, I expect him to produce a better body of work this season.

New York Giants

Halfway through October last season, the Giants were 5-0 and cruising. The wheels fell off after that, as they lost their next four games and eight of their final eleven.

The biggest problem for New York was their defense, which gave up 32.4 points a game in those final eleven games. Their once fearsome pass-rush became toothless and their secondary couldn't cover anyone.

I expect new defensive coordinator Perry Fewell (Bill Sheridan was fired after last year's debacle) to shore up the Giants' D. Free-agent safeties Antrel Rolle and Deon Grant and veteran linebacker Keith Bulluck were signed in the offseason to give the defense a bit more experience.

Although New York still looks thin at linebacker, they do have a lot of talented pass-rushers – Justin Tuck,Osi Umenyiora, Chris Canty, and first round draft pick Jason Pierre-Paul – who should play better this year now they're all back to full health.

Bottom Line: Because of all the Giants other failings, the fact that Eli Manning had his best ever regular season in 2009 fell under the radar a bit. He looked comfortable with both his receiving corps and O-line. If the defense can play just a bit better than last year (and that shouldn't be too difficult), Manning's play could take the Giants back to the postseason.

The five who'll miss out:

AFC:

-Cinncinati Bengals

-New England Patriots

NFC:

-Arizona Cardinals

-Philadelphia Eagles

-Minnesota Vikings

Thursday Night Prediction:

Vikings at Saints: Last January, these two teams played a tightly-contested NFC Championship game in the Superdome which the Saints won in overtime. The Vikings shot themselves in the foot in that game, fumbling the ball six times, three of which they lost, and throwing two interceptions.

While the offseason has been fairly quiet in New Orleans, Minnesota fell victim to the latest episode of the “will he, won't he Brett Favre retirement saga.” It appears Favre came as close as he has ever been to actually packing it in this time. Since his return, he lost his top receiver Sidney Rice to hip injury that will keep him out for half the year. Slot receiver Percy Harvin remains a question mark because of his chronic migraines.

I expect the Vikings to rely more heavily on running back Adrian Peterson this time around, if anything to prevent the still-not-100% Favre from taking too many sacks.

As for the Saints, they will probably try to establish the run early on, but if that doesn't work Drew Brees will be confident he can dominate the Vikings' secondary.

It appears to me that, barring a monster night for AP, the Saints should prevail in this one simply because the Vikings don't appear, at this moment, to be the force they were last year. Saints