NFL Preview: Part 3

Top 5 non-playoff teams most likely to make the playoffs this year:

AFC:

Pittsburgh Steelers:

There are plenty of good reasons the Steelers won't make the playoffs this season:

1/ They are without their star quarterback, Ben Roethlisberger, for the first four games of the year.

2/ Once he returns, they face a brutal schedule, including games against the Saints, the Jets, the Ravens, the Bengals (twice), the Patriots.

3/ The AFC North is fast becoming the second toughest division in the NFL, behind only to the NFC East. Both the Ravens and the Bengals were pretty darn good last year, and both should be even better this year (Baltimore, with its host of new wide receivers, in particular).

However, one thing tells me that the Steelers can overcome all of this adversity: history.

The franchise hasn't missed the playoffs for two consecutive seasons since 1999 and 2000. They've played in the postseason six of the last nine years, and won two of the last five Superbowls.

Moreover, because of his off-season problems, Pittsburgh most important player, Roethlisberger, will be playing with a massive chip on his shoulder this season. Always known as a fiery competitor, he's going to want to win football games like never before in 2010. I imagine being booed in every stadium but Heinz Field will only add fuel to that fire.

Bottom Line: A decade of NFL success doesn't happen by accident. The Steelers are still one of the league's best organizations and will undoubtedly be in the playoff mix, at the very least, come late December, early January.

Houston Texans

The Texans haven't had a losing record since 2006. Despite that fact,the franchise (founded in 2002) has yet to play in a single postseason game. The primary reason? The Indianapolis Colts.

The Colts have had a stranglehold on the AFC South since its inception, also in 2002, winning the division six times in its eight year existence. Indianapolis has also battered Houston head-to-head during those years: they are 15-1 all-time against the Texans.

While the Colts are still favored to win the AFC South this season, the Texans should have a good shot at an AFC Wild card berth. Their passing game is in the league's top tier, they have a running back, Arian Foster, that many pundits are expecting to have a big year, and their defense has a number of exciting young players (Brian Cushing, DeMeco Ryans, Mario Williams, Amobi Okoye).

Bottom Line: If any NFL team is due a playoff appearance, it's the Texans. Of course that doesn't mean it will happen, but Houston come out losers in a lot of close games last year. Turn some of those into Ws and they should be in.

NFC

San Francisco 49ers:

The 49ers have timed their resurgence perfectly. With Kurt Warner too old (and retired) and Sam Bradford too young (and green), Alex Smith has a good chance to take San Francisco to a new level in the NFC West's power vacuum.

Both the Seahawks and the Rams seem on the road to losing seasons in 2010 and unless Derek Anderson can metamorphosis into the quarterback he was in 2007 (when he led the Browns to a 10-6 record and went to the Pro Bowl), the Cardinals could be too.

Meanwhile the 49ers have stockpiled a talented roster through a series of good drafts in the last five years. Last season, they started 3-1 and went 3-1 in their last four games on the way to a 8-8 record. Had it not been for a brutal October and early November (they went 1-5), they might well have been a playoff team.

The 49ers also went 5-1 against divisional foes last year, another factor that should be a boost to their playoff chances.

Bottom Line: A 9-7 season might well be enough to carry the division and, barring a Smith meltdown, San Francisco looks a good bet to post a winning record.

Atlanta Falcons

Like the Texans, the Falcons just missed out on the playoffs last season as they finished with a 9-7 record.

Atlanta has one the league's best young quarterbacks in Matt Ryan, as well as a number of other offensive weapons in running back Michael Turner, Hall of Fame-bound tight end Tony Gonzalez and Pro Bowl wideout Roddy White.

If Ryan can be a little more consistent and elevate his game when he plays top opponents (the Falcons only beat one playoff-bound team, the Jets, last year), Atlanta could lock up a wildcard berth, though challenging the Saints for the division is probably beyond the Falcons this season.

Bottom Line: It's a big year for Ryan. But with a two years of NFL experience under his belt, I expect him to produce a better body of work this season.

New York Giants

Halfway through October last season, the Giants were 5-0 and cruising. The wheels fell off after that, as they lost their next four games and eight of their final eleven.

The biggest problem for New York was their defense, which gave up 32.4 points a game in those final eleven games. Their once fearsome pass-rush became toothless and their secondary couldn't cover anyone.

I expect new defensive coordinator Perry Fewell (Bill Sheridan was fired after last year's debacle) to shore up the Giants' D. Free-agent safeties Antrel Rolle and Deon Grant and veteran linebacker Keith Bulluck were signed in the offseason to give the defense a bit more experience.

Although New York still looks thin at linebacker, they do have a lot of talented pass-rushers – Justin Tuck,Osi Umenyiora, Chris Canty, and first round draft pick Jason Pierre-Paul – who should play better this year now they're all back to full health.

Bottom Line: Because of all the Giants other failings, the fact that Eli Manning had his best ever regular season in 2009 fell under the radar a bit. He looked comfortable with both his receiving corps and O-line. If the defense can play just a bit better than last year (and that shouldn't be too difficult), Manning's play could take the Giants back to the postseason.

The five who'll miss out:

AFC:

-Cinncinati Bengals

-New England Patriots

NFC:

-Arizona Cardinals

-Philadelphia Eagles

-Minnesota Vikings

Thursday Night Prediction:

Vikings at Saints: Last January, these two teams played a tightly-contested NFC Championship game in the Superdome which the Saints won in overtime. The Vikings shot themselves in the foot in that game, fumbling the ball six times, three of which they lost, and throwing two interceptions.

While the offseason has been fairly quiet in New Orleans, Minnesota fell victim to the latest episode of the “will he, won't he Brett Favre retirement saga.” It appears Favre came as close as he has ever been to actually packing it in this time. Since his return, he lost his top receiver Sidney Rice to hip injury that will keep him out for half the year. Slot receiver Percy Harvin remains a question mark because of his chronic migraines.

I expect the Vikings to rely more heavily on running back Adrian Peterson this time around, if anything to prevent the still-not-100% Favre from taking too many sacks.

As for the Saints, they will probably try to establish the run early on, but if that doesn't work Drew Brees will be confident he can dominate the Vikings' secondary.

It appears to me that, barring a monster night for AP, the Saints should prevail in this one simply because the Vikings don't appear, at this moment, to be the force they were last year. Saints

NFL Preview: Part 2

Every season, fans of every NFL team hope that a couple of their new draft picks come in and shine immediately, win starting roles, and contribute heavily in their rookie seasons.

Of course, in reality, that doesn't happen. But while some teams have the luxury of giving their rookies time to develop and learn the system, others don't.

Here are my top 5 rookies most needed to perform in 2010 by their respective teams.

Top 5 rookies most needed to perform in 2010

Sam Bradford, QB, St Louis Rams

In all likelihood, the Rams will be the first NFL team to have a rookie quarterback start a game for them this season. And, depending on how Matt Moore plays in Carolina and how the Matt Leinart-Derek Anderson combo performs in Arizona, they may also be the only team to start a rookie QB in 2010.

The good news for St. Louis is that that quarterback is Sam Bradford, the number one overall pick of the 2010 draft who, when healthy, was a stud at Oklahoma. He has a strong arm, can make all the throws and most importantly, is an extremely accurate passer.

Moreover, so far, he has earned rave reviews in training camp. He was also stellar in his first preseason start, shredding the Patriots secondary for 189 yards and 2 touchdowns.

The bad news for St. Louis is that rookie quarterbacks historically struggle when thrust into a starting role early on. Those struggles are only intensified when the rookie has a weak supporting cast around him (just ask David Carr).

With an inexperienced offensive line and a poor receiving corps (made all the weaker after number one receiver Donnie Avery was lost for the season in the second preseason game with a knee injury), many Rams fans would probably just be happy if Bradford can make it through the season with his health and confidence intact.

Gerald McCoy, DT, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The 2009 Tampa Bay defensive line was just awful. The Bucs finished dead last in the NFL in run defense, allowing a whopping 158.2 yards per game on the ground.

Fixing that problem was the focus of the off-season for Tampa Bay and therefore they were delighted to have Gerald McCoy, a former high school All-American and five-star recruit, fall into their laps at the third overall pick.

McCoy, another Oklahoma grad, was a three-year starter in Norman who had his best year as a senior, amassing 15 ½ tackles for loss, and six sacks.

Now the Bucs desperately need McCoy, along with fellow rookie Brian Price out of UCLA, to plug running lanes in the Tampa 2 defense.

Easier said than done in the NFC South -- which features three teams that run the ball well: the Panthers, Saints, and Falcons – but for the Tampa Bay to have any kind of recovery season, McCoy will have to adapt quickly to shedding blockers much bigger and more wily than the ones he faced in college.

C.J. Spiller, RB, Buffalo Bills

The Bills have been desperate for a offensive play-maker for a good few seasons now. They even welcomed the T.O. Show to town in 2009 with hopes of giving the team a bit more pizazz, an experiment that failed miserably.

Buffalo's first pick in this year's draft was C.J. Spiller out of Clemson, the consensus best available running back in the draft, who clocked a 4.27 40 at the combine.

With Marshawn Lynch (a first-round pick in '07) and Fred Jackson already in the backfield, many questioned whether the Bills should have addressed their needs at quarterback or offensive line with their first pick.

However, the Bills seemed positively prescient when both Jackson and Lynch got hurt during the preseason. Spiller took full advantage of the extra reps, showing America his potential by scoring three touchdowns, including one of the most electrifying plays of the preseason: a 31-yard touchdown run where he made three Colts defenders miss.

With his speed, burst and moves, Spiller could add a home-run ability to Buffalo's running game which could kick start their sleeping offense.

Kyle Wilson, CB, New York Jets

How much Kyle Wilson, a late first round pick out of Boise State, will be needed depends greatly on whether the Jets All-World cornerback Darelle Revis continues his protracted holdout. But with September here and Revis still not in camp, Wilson may well be starting at cornerback Week 1 opposite Antonio Cromartie against the Ravens.

Pretty big shoes to fill for Wilson: replacing the best player on the best defense in the NFL last season.

Wilson has impressed during training camp and preseason, moving ahead of Dwight Lowery on the New York's cornerback depth chart: should Revis end his holdout, Wilson is expected to be penciled in as the team's starting nickel corner.

Like the rest of New York's secondary, Wilson will benefit from the pressure the Jets fearsome pass-rush puts on quarterbacks. Nonetheless, the Jets opponents will go after him early and often, taking their passing game to his side of the field to gauge how talented he really is.

He'll have to be ready.

Koa Misi, OLB, Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins' football team is pretty solid across the board without really excelling in particular area. In a division featuring two of the AFC's best teams, the Jets and the Patriots, being solid doesn't cut it.

One area the Dolphins really wanted to improve was their pass-rush to get after Tom Brady, Mark Sanchez and co. They threw their hat in with Koa Misi with the 40^th overall pick, a defensive lineman at Utah, who they plan to convert into a pass-rushing linebacker in their 3-4 defense.

Misi had 26 tackles for loss and 10.5 sacks over the course of his college career and the Dolphins liked his versatility and athleticism for their D.

So far, Misi has practiced almost exclusively with the first team throughout training camp and got all three preseason starts. His performances so far have not blown anyone away, however, and he was demoted to the second team at a recent practice.

But Miami needs linebackers who can get after the quarterback in their defensive scheme and because they don't have many others on their roster, they just might have to stick with Misi in their starting lineup as he gets used to the pace of the NFL.

What other rookies are going to be greatly needed by their teams this season? Chime in.

NFL 2010 Season Preview: Part 1

There aren't many good things about summer coming to a close, but the return of football (for me, that's all three varieties: NFL, college, and soccer) is definitely one of them.

Six months have passed since my last blog post dealing with all things NFL. During that time, we've had a draft, some big money free-agents signings, some high-profile players getting on the wrong side of the law, and a lot of contract holdouts. Just another boring old NFL off-season....Oh, and Jamarcus Russell finally got his marching orders, sealing his place in the Hall of Fame of first round draft busts.

I start my coverage of the 2010 NFL season with a preview, broken into a few parts, which will be appearing over the next two weeks.

Year 2 of roughing-the-passer. Here goes....

Top 5 NFL teams with questions at quarterback (in no particular order)

Arizona Cardinals: Matt Leinart / Derek Anderson / John Skelton / Max Hall

Ever since they drafted him with the tenth overall pick of the 2006 draft, the Cardinals have been waiting for Matt Leinart's on-the-field performance to force their hand into making him the unquestioned starter and long-term answer at quarterback for their franchise.

Unfortunately for Arizona, that hasn't happened. At the start of this off-season, after Kurt Warner's retirement, Leinart came into the starting job through the backdoor.

However, even with his main source of competition for the job over the last four seasons gone, Leinart hasn't impressed in training camp or in the preseason so far.

Leinart's most recent low point came in Arizona's second preseason game against the Titans. He played three series, completing 4 of 6 passes for 28 yards, but failed to get a first down.

Hot on his heels is Derek Anderson, already a journeyman at 27 playing on his third NFL team, who the Cardinals signed in March ostensibly to back Leinart up. Anderson was named the starter for the third preseason game after outplaying Leinart in the first two, much to Leinart's chagrin.

Behind Leinart and Anderson are two rookies: John Skleton (selected in the fifth round) and Max Hall (undrafted). Barring injuries, neither is expected to play much of a role once the regular season rolls around and in all likelihood only one will make the final roster.

That means that the Cardinals will live and die with either Leinart and Anderson at quarterback. Whether Leinart can finally live up to the hype that surrounded him as a Heisman trophy winner coming out of USC or Anderson can shake off the dreadful inconsistency that has plagued him throughout his career will play a big role in determining how Arizona fares this season.


St. Louis Rams: A.J. Feeley / Sam Bradford / Keith Null / Thaddeus Lewis

According to Rams head coach Steve Spagnuolo, A.J. Feeley remains ahead of rookie Sam Bradford in the quarterback depth chart despite Feeley's recent thumb injury.

However, Spagnuolo said that before Bradford's impressive first preseason start against New England when he went 15 of 22 for 189 yards and 2 touchdown passes. His performance in that game led some to speculate that the precocious Bradford might already be ready to be thrust into the starting role.

Regardless of which quarterback is under center week 1 against the Cardinals, the roles of both Rams quarterback are indisputable this year.

Feeley, an able back-up for most of his career but who has little upside, is the caretaker quarterback, manning the position until Spagnuolo says otherwise. Bradford is the new face of the franchise, the first potential NFL superstar to grace St. Louis in a good long while.

At some point this season, their order will be flipped and Bradford will make his first NFL start. And expect it to be sooner rather than later: the Rams, and Spagnuolo, need to win too badly to hold Bradford back for too long.

As for Keith Null, a sixth round pick in 2009 who has 3 touchdowns and 9 interceptions in his career so far, and Thaddeus Lewis, an undrafted rookie out of Duke, expect only one of them to make it through final cuts.

Philadelphia Eagles: Kevin Kolb / Michael Vick / Mike Kafka

Eagles fans are hoping Kevin Kolb in his first starting year can be the latest incarnation of Aaron Rodgers or Tony Romo: a young quarterback who excels after being given a few years behind an established starter to learn the system and adapt to the speed of the NFL.

Much of the hype around Kolb emanates from the back-to-back 300 yard passing games he threw in his first two NFL starts last season (he was the first quarterback ever to do so).

However, given the huge shoes he has to fill – Donovan McNabb was the Eagles' best ever quarterback- and the chronic high expectations of Philadelphia fans, Kolb won't have much time to find his feet.

His performances in the preseason so far have been uneven. He was good against the Bengals, mediocre against the Jaguars and poor against the Chiefs.

Behind him, Michael Vick does not appear to have recaptured the explosiveness that made him a household name before his legal problems. He had a particularly brutal outing against the Bengals, completing only 1 of 5 passes and tossing two interceptions.

Mike Kafka, a rookie out of Northwestern, completes the trio. He has flashed potential during the preseason but shouldn't take the field this fall.

San Francisco 49ers: Alex Smith / David Carr / Nate Davis / Jarrett Brown

Alex Smith has arrived at the last chance saloon.

A former number one pick in 2005, Smith has played under five offensive coordinators over the course of his underwhelming professional career to date.

This season, however, both Smith and 49ers offensive coordinator, Jimmy Raye II, return. He has a talented offense around him, complete with a host of talented play-makers, Frank Gore, Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree, and a revamped offensive line featuring two new first round picks, Anthony Davis and Mike Iupati.

If Smith plays well, the 49ers have a very good chance to win the weak NFC West and return to the playoffs for the first time since 2002.

If he doesn't, he'll be the scapegoat for another season of wasted potential in San Francisco.

At times this preseason, he has appeared to have a much firmer grasp of the 49er offense than in past seasons, running it efficiently without trying to do too much. But can he carry that form into the regular season?

Both his back-ups, David Carr and Nate Davis, have their flaws and aren't polished enough to be full-time NFL starters. Neither will press him for playing time unless Smith takes a huge step back this season.

Pittsburgh Steelers: Ben Roethlisberger / Charlie Batch / Byron Leftwich / Dennis Dixon

Sure, both the Browns and the Bills could have been selected at this slot, but Ben Roethlisberger's six game suspension (which will most likely be reduced to four when he meets with Roger Goodell later this week) raises questions at quarterback for the Steelers for the first time in a while.

Even if Big Ben ends up missing only four games, in the cut-throat AFC North, that could prove extremely costly for Pittsburgh. Of those four games, three are losable without Roethlisberger (Falcons, at Titans, and Ravens).

That means the Steelers need one of their three backups to step up and at the very least put enough points on the board to allow the defense to dominate.

Of the candidates, you get the feeling coach Mike Tomlin has a soft spot for the dual threat Dennis Dixon. It was Dixon who got the start against the Ravens after Roethlisberger and Charlie Batch went down injured last November and Dixon has been getting plenty of snaps this preseason.

But Dixon struggled mightily against the Broncos on Sunday, throwing two ugly picks deep in Denver territory. Byron Leftwich, signed this off-season due to Roethlisberger's suspension, is competing with Dixon for those four starts and hasn't played well so far: he's completed only 9 of 20 attempted passes.

Batch, who has been with the Steelers since 2002, hasn't really been part of the discussion despite getting playing time this preseason.

Whoever wins the battle, the level of quarterback play will drop off in the first part of the season. And once Roethlisberger comes back, he'll be dealing with rustiness, a lot of booing fans and a tough run-in schedule (at Saints, at Ravens, home and away to Bengals, Patriots and Jets).