NFL Week 1 2010: Part Deux

Five Thoughts on Monday Night's Doubleheader

-The Jets and Ravens are mirror images of each other, and on Monday the Ravens were just a little bit better. These are two teams that emphasize defense and specifically run defense. On offense, they both try and establish the run first. But against each other, neither could get much of offense going and the game turned into a defensive slug-fest.

In the end, the difference turned out to be what each team could do on third down. The Ravens converted 11 of 19 third downs, mainly on Joe Flacco passes. He went a number of receivers on those conversions: Anquan Boldin, Todd Heap, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Willie McGahee all got a piece of the action.

Being successful on third down allowed the Ravens to enjoy almost double the time in possession of the Jets and produce the game's only touchdown drive.

-A night of offensive offense by the Jets. The last meaningful play of the game perfectly summed up the night's work for Mark Sanchez and co. On 4th and 10 at the New York 31 with 41 ticks left, Sanchez threw an out route to tight end Dustin Keller, who, under very little pressure but led by the throw, stepped out of bounds a good yard short of the first down marker. Turnover. Game over.

Here are few stats for you on the Jets offense. 6 first downs. 1 of 11 on third down conversions. 176 total offensive yards. 60 passing yards. 3 fumbles, one of which was lost (more on that in a moment).

The Jets may have a good enough defense to keep them close in most games, but the offense has to pick up some of the slack. Santonio Holmes coming back after week 4 should help, as will playing against weaker defenses than Baltimore's.

Nonetheless Rex Ryan's Superbowl champions prediction is looking more and more ill-advised by the day. Look, this team had a fantastic postseason run this winter but their offense is undoubtedly still a work in progress. I think Ryan's bold outlook may just have heaped too much pressure on this team and particularly on its young franchise quarterback.

-Big things are expected out of Shonn Greene this season, but the second year man had an opener to forget. Greene was one of the star's of the last postseason with two games of 100+ rushing yards. His breakout was part of the reason the Jets released their leading rusher Thomas Jones in March.

But Greene fumbled the ball twice against the Ravens, one of which was lost. He also rushed for only 18 yards on 5 carries and dropped an easy swing pass. The Jets will need Greene to be a much more prominent piece of the offense in the coming weeks.

-The Chiefs pull off a shocker at Arrowhead against the Chargers. Aided by a raucous crowd, a torrential downpour and an out-of-sync San Diego offense (how many of those have we seen this week?), Kansas City produced just enough big plays to overcome the Chargers.

The Chiefs barely gained more first downs than the Jets (9) but scored their three touchdowns on a 56-yard touchdown run, a 94-yard punt return and three plays after a 23-yard fumble return. They then set about protecting their lead the best they could, shutting down San Diego's rookie running back Ryan Matthews and double-teaming Antonio Gates on almost every play.

Philip Rivers tried his best to get the Chargers back in the game but suffered from miscommunications with his offensive line and receivers, and saw a number of his passes dropped.

The win reminded me of just how noisy Arrowhead can get and what a daunting place it can be to run an offense especially when the Chiefs are playing well.

-Kansas City now has two kick returners that will scare the bejesus out of teams this season. Well if you had an offense that struggles to put points on the board, wouldn't you pick up two of the best kick returners in the draft? That's precisely what Kansas City Chiefs did by selecting Dexter McCluster and Javier Arenas in the second round of this year's draft.

The strategy paid immediate dividends in the opener. Arenas brought the crowd noise to a whole new level with big punt return of 36 and 24 yards in the second quarter. McCluster sent them into ectasy when he returned Mike Scifres 60-yard punt 94 yards for a touchdown, a team record.

Anyone who watched the game could tell you that every time one of the two touched the ball, you felt there was a chance that it was going to the house. I'd be surprised if opponents keep giving either of them many more return chances.

NFL Week 1 2010

Six quick thoughts (on a day where more football was missed than watched):

+ Huge win for the Houston Texans: In fairness to Houston, this one has been coming for a while. The Texans came close to breaking their horrendous streak against the Colts (1-15 all-time) in both of the games they played against them last season but came up just short.

On Sunday, Houston played lights-out, taking the first lead of the game and never relinquishing it. The closest the Colts came to getting back into it was the 13-10 halftime score. But the Texans received the ball to start the third quarter and went on a 16-play touchdown drive which ate up almost nine minutes of clock and proved to be a backbreaker for the Colts.

That drive brings us to the key difference between previous Houston-Indiannapolis matchups and Sunday's game: Arian Foster.

Foster, an undrafted running back in 2009 who missed all of last season with an injury, had a career-day: rushing for mammoth 231 yards and 3 touchdowns. On that opening drive of the third quarter, Houston fed Foster the ball 10 times and Indianapolis couldn't stop him: Foster converted two third downs and a key fourth down to keep the chains moving.

Foster proved to be the great equalizer for the Texans, by both keeping Manning off the field for long stretches of the game (something they haven't been able to do in the past), and exploiting the Colts poor run-defense (a question mark for them even last season).

+And credit to some of the day's other upsetters: There's no doubt that neither the 49ers or the Cowboys played as well as they should have. But give some love to the Seahawks and the Redskins. Both were 3-point underdogs going in but both showed some homefield pride, played solid defense and came through some dicey moments – the Seahawks only mustered 11 yards on their first three offensive possessions and the Redskins withstood the Cowboys last-minute drive – to come away with well-deserved wins.

+Matt Ryan better look out for that dreaded “Junior Slump”: Granted, I didn't watch the Steelers-Falcons game in its entirety and Ryan's individual stats don't look bad on paper: 27 of 44 for 252 yards and an interception.

BUT with 1:45 left in the fourth quarter and the score locked at 9-9, Ryan took over at the Atlanta 21 with a chance to lead a game-winning drive. His first pass from scrimmage was so telegraphed that Troy Polamalu saw it coming from what seemed to be the other side of the field and picked it off.

That should have been curtains for Ryan and the Falcons, but the Steelers missed the potential game-winning field goal to send the game into overtime. After Atlanta won the coin flip, Ryan proceeded to go 1 of 3 for 9 yards as the offense stalled once again, and this time Pittsburgh granted them no reprieve.

Ryan had a phenomenal rookie season in 2008, but seemed to falter at big moments against high quality opposition last season. He did it again in the first game of 2010 and that will have Falcons fans worried.

+ The Calvin Johnson call: Ok, so I think we can all agree (Bears fans aside perhaps) that Johnson was a little hard done by on the call that ruled the potentially game-winning touchdown for the Lions an incompletion. But my question is (after watching the play about ten times), why did he take his left hand off the football in the first place? Neither of Johnson's arms were entangled with the defender's; it was almost as if he was simply trying to break his fall/ soften his landing. On a game-winning play? In the NFL?

Of course, everything seems SO simple to the fan/ pundit sitting on a couch or La-Z-Boy at home watching the game in super slow-mo, but still...Strange moment.

+Rough day for starting quarterbacks: Kevin Kolb of the Eagles and Matt Moore of the Panthers both sustained concussions in their games against the Packers and Giants respectively.

However the most serious quarterback injury of the day appears to be that of the Lions Matthew Stafford. Stafford injured his throwing shoulder thanks to a Julius Peppers sack. Early reports have the second-year signal caller missing multiple weeks of action.

One week (actually, one week minus two fixtures), and already three teams scrambling to their backup options at QB. Just goes to show how the hours and hours that NFL teams put into planning and preparation can be seriously disrupted with just one bad hit on their most important player.

+The Browns will be hoping (maybe praying) that they didn't read the tea leaves wrong when they gambled this offseason that quarterback Jake Delhomme had another couple seasons left in his arm.

If Delhomme continues to perform as he did on Sunday, his signing might just cost them the little bit of momentum they developped at the end of last season, thanks to Jerome Harrison's heroics and an improving offensive line.

Picking NFL Week 1

Raiders at Titans: For the first time in a while, the Raiders made a series of very smart off-season moves. They cut JaMarcus Russell (which made me happy simply because I was getting sick of bashing the guy), drafted stud linebacker Rolando McClain and made some signings to bolster their run defense in defensive tackle John Henderson and outside linebackers Kamerion Wimbley and Quentin Groves. Well, if they want to start stopping the run, playing against the NFL's best running back is certainly a good first test. Titans.

Panthers at Giants: Most casual NFL fans probably don't remember what happened last time these two teams played. But I guarantee the Giants do. The G-men were humiliated 45-9 by Carolina two days after Christmas last year. Jonathan Stewart rushed for over 200 yards in that game, and New York's number one goal will be to stop the Panthers running game on Sunday. If they can do that, Eli Manning should be able to dissect Carolina's defense, given the lack of a threatening Panthers pass-rush. Giants.

Colts at Texans: The Texans want to beat the Colts. Really, really badly. We all know the stats on this one. They are 1-15 all-time against Peyton Manning and co. They haven't forgotten the 20-7 halftime lead they blew at Reliant Stadium last season. Or the 42-yard missed field goal that prevented them from forcing overtime at Lucas Oil Stadium in the return match-up. But the Texans lost their best cornerback, Dunta Robinson, to free agency this off-season. Peyton will like the sound of that. Colts.

Broncos at Jaguars: The Broncos have been taking a beating with prognosticators lately after a spate of injuries and poor preseason showings. But they still have more of a solid squad than the Jaguars. Moreover, by all accounts, Kyle Orton appeared far more comfortable in the McDaniels' offense this season. Broncos.

Falcons at Steelers: Into the fire goes Dennis Dixon, a third year pro with only one NFL start to his name, against Atlanta. He didn't play exactly the way the Steelers wanted him to this preseason but they love his mobility in and out of the pocket. The Steelers defense should give Matt Ryan plenty of problems, but, in the end, Dixon's inexperience costs them the win. Falcons.

Dolphins at Bills: C.J. Spiller looked like a star in the making this preseason. Unfortunately, there isn't much strength around him. Miami will focus on shutting him down and allowing Trent Edwards to make some mistakes, something history suggests is quite likely to happen. Dolphins.

Lions at Bears: I like the way GM Martin Mayhew and head coach Jim Schwartz are rebuilding the Lions. I can't wait to see Ndamukong Suh take the field and get into opposition backfields. I also think Matthew Stafford will be much better this year. However, I still have a lot of faith in Jay Cutler and he'll surely be aware that this is a make-or-break year in his professional career. Bears.

Bengals at Patriots: The big question surrounding the Patriots is their defense. They gave up a ton of yards this preseason, and haven't been able to get to the quarterback for a while now. The Bengals strong running game with Cedric Benson should allow them to keep Tom Brady off the field for big chunks of the game, and that's never good news in New England. Bengals.

Browns at Buccaneers: The Browns gambled big on Jake Delhomme this off-season, and it might not be a bad play as Delhomme looked like he still had a season or two left in him during the preseason games. His experience may be very important to this up-and-coming team. Browns.

49ers at Seahawks: If the 49ers want to stake their claim to being the best in the NFC West, losing to the Seahawks in their opener would pretty much be the worst imaginable start. The 49ers defense should be able to smother most of what the Hawks can produce offensively: Seattle's O-line is weak (no first-round pick tackle Russell Okung in this one) and their receiving corp is paper thin. That means that Alex Smith will only have to be solid, not spectacular, to win this game for San Francisco. He has appeared more than capable of that this preseason. 49ers.

Packers at Eagles: I didn't watch that many preseason games, but one I did catch was the Green Bay-Indianapolis Colts match-up. I was quite simply blown away with how effectively Aaron Rodgers ran the offense in the few possessions he played. I like Green Bay a lot this season: I like them to win the NFC North and I think they could go deep into the postseason. They'll be too much to handle for an Eagles team debuting a new quarterback. Packers.

Cardinals at Rams: There are definitely tougher secondaries in the league that Sam Bradford could be facing in his regular season debut, but the number one overall pick is still bound to have some early jitters. The key to the game will be how Bradford deals with all the early pressure Arizona is bound to throw at him and his poor offensive line. Cardinals.

Cowboys at Redskins: Man, did Tony Romo stink bad this preseason. But I'm calling smokescreen/ indifference on his part. Once the lights go on on Sunday night, he will be sharp. I'd bet money on it. Meanwhile part of the reason Donovan McNabb isn't with the Eagles anymore was how he performed against the Cowboys in what turned out to be the last two games of his career in Philadelphia. Cowboys.

Ravens at Jets: One of most mouth-watering match-ups of the first week. The Ravens addressed their biggest weakness – the receiving corps – in spades during the off-season. In come Anquan Boldin, Donte Stallworth, Ed Dickson, Dennis Pitta and just a few days ago, T.J. Houshmandzadeh adding to Joe Flacco's favorite target last season, running back Ray Rice. As we saw on “Hard Knocks”, the Jets have both plenty of confidence and expectations heading into the season. But their offense sputtered in the preseason, and I think people too quickly forgot, in the midst of their 2009 postseason run, that Mark Sanchez was average at best for large parts of the regular season. I think Jets coach Rex Ryan may be in for some disappointment this year. Ravens in a low-scoring game.

Chargers at Chiefs: I love the Chiefs selecting Eric Berry with the fifth pick of this year's draft. Anyone who says safeties don't have enough of an effect on teams to go that high obviously haven't watched Troy Polamalu play recently. I think Kansas' D will be better this year, but they don't have the offensive weapons to keep pace with Philip Rivers and the Chargers high-powered offense. Chargers.

NFL Preview: Part 3

Top 5 non-playoff teams most likely to make the playoffs this year:

AFC:

Pittsburgh Steelers:

There are plenty of good reasons the Steelers won't make the playoffs this season:

1/ They are without their star quarterback, Ben Roethlisberger, for the first four games of the year.

2/ Once he returns, they face a brutal schedule, including games against the Saints, the Jets, the Ravens, the Bengals (twice), the Patriots.

3/ The AFC North is fast becoming the second toughest division in the NFL, behind only to the NFC East. Both the Ravens and the Bengals were pretty darn good last year, and both should be even better this year (Baltimore, with its host of new wide receivers, in particular).

However, one thing tells me that the Steelers can overcome all of this adversity: history.

The franchise hasn't missed the playoffs for two consecutive seasons since 1999 and 2000. They've played in the postseason six of the last nine years, and won two of the last five Superbowls.

Moreover, because of his off-season problems, Pittsburgh most important player, Roethlisberger, will be playing with a massive chip on his shoulder this season. Always known as a fiery competitor, he's going to want to win football games like never before in 2010. I imagine being booed in every stadium but Heinz Field will only add fuel to that fire.

Bottom Line: A decade of NFL success doesn't happen by accident. The Steelers are still one of the league's best organizations and will undoubtedly be in the playoff mix, at the very least, come late December, early January.

Houston Texans

The Texans haven't had a losing record since 2006. Despite that fact,the franchise (founded in 2002) has yet to play in a single postseason game. The primary reason? The Indianapolis Colts.

The Colts have had a stranglehold on the AFC South since its inception, also in 2002, winning the division six times in its eight year existence. Indianapolis has also battered Houston head-to-head during those years: they are 15-1 all-time against the Texans.

While the Colts are still favored to win the AFC South this season, the Texans should have a good shot at an AFC Wild card berth. Their passing game is in the league's top tier, they have a running back, Arian Foster, that many pundits are expecting to have a big year, and their defense has a number of exciting young players (Brian Cushing, DeMeco Ryans, Mario Williams, Amobi Okoye).

Bottom Line: If any NFL team is due a playoff appearance, it's the Texans. Of course that doesn't mean it will happen, but Houston come out losers in a lot of close games last year. Turn some of those into Ws and they should be in.

NFC

San Francisco 49ers:

The 49ers have timed their resurgence perfectly. With Kurt Warner too old (and retired) and Sam Bradford too young (and green), Alex Smith has a good chance to take San Francisco to a new level in the NFC West's power vacuum.

Both the Seahawks and the Rams seem on the road to losing seasons in 2010 and unless Derek Anderson can metamorphosis into the quarterback he was in 2007 (when he led the Browns to a 10-6 record and went to the Pro Bowl), the Cardinals could be too.

Meanwhile the 49ers have stockpiled a talented roster through a series of good drafts in the last five years. Last season, they started 3-1 and went 3-1 in their last four games on the way to a 8-8 record. Had it not been for a brutal October and early November (they went 1-5), they might well have been a playoff team.

The 49ers also went 5-1 against divisional foes last year, another factor that should be a boost to their playoff chances.

Bottom Line: A 9-7 season might well be enough to carry the division and, barring a Smith meltdown, San Francisco looks a good bet to post a winning record.

Atlanta Falcons

Like the Texans, the Falcons just missed out on the playoffs last season as they finished with a 9-7 record.

Atlanta has one the league's best young quarterbacks in Matt Ryan, as well as a number of other offensive weapons in running back Michael Turner, Hall of Fame-bound tight end Tony Gonzalez and Pro Bowl wideout Roddy White.

If Ryan can be a little more consistent and elevate his game when he plays top opponents (the Falcons only beat one playoff-bound team, the Jets, last year), Atlanta could lock up a wildcard berth, though challenging the Saints for the division is probably beyond the Falcons this season.

Bottom Line: It's a big year for Ryan. But with a two years of NFL experience under his belt, I expect him to produce a better body of work this season.

New York Giants

Halfway through October last season, the Giants were 5-0 and cruising. The wheels fell off after that, as they lost their next four games and eight of their final eleven.

The biggest problem for New York was their defense, which gave up 32.4 points a game in those final eleven games. Their once fearsome pass-rush became toothless and their secondary couldn't cover anyone.

I expect new defensive coordinator Perry Fewell (Bill Sheridan was fired after last year's debacle) to shore up the Giants' D. Free-agent safeties Antrel Rolle and Deon Grant and veteran linebacker Keith Bulluck were signed in the offseason to give the defense a bit more experience.

Although New York still looks thin at linebacker, they do have a lot of talented pass-rushers – Justin Tuck,Osi Umenyiora, Chris Canty, and first round draft pick Jason Pierre-Paul – who should play better this year now they're all back to full health.

Bottom Line: Because of all the Giants other failings, the fact that Eli Manning had his best ever regular season in 2009 fell under the radar a bit. He looked comfortable with both his receiving corps and O-line. If the defense can play just a bit better than last year (and that shouldn't be too difficult), Manning's play could take the Giants back to the postseason.

The five who'll miss out:

AFC:

-Cinncinati Bengals

-New England Patriots

NFC:

-Arizona Cardinals

-Philadelphia Eagles

-Minnesota Vikings

Thursday Night Prediction:

Vikings at Saints: Last January, these two teams played a tightly-contested NFC Championship game in the Superdome which the Saints won in overtime. The Vikings shot themselves in the foot in that game, fumbling the ball six times, three of which they lost, and throwing two interceptions.

While the offseason has been fairly quiet in New Orleans, Minnesota fell victim to the latest episode of the “will he, won't he Brett Favre retirement saga.” It appears Favre came as close as he has ever been to actually packing it in this time. Since his return, he lost his top receiver Sidney Rice to hip injury that will keep him out for half the year. Slot receiver Percy Harvin remains a question mark because of his chronic migraines.

I expect the Vikings to rely more heavily on running back Adrian Peterson this time around, if anything to prevent the still-not-100% Favre from taking too many sacks.

As for the Saints, they will probably try to establish the run early on, but if that doesn't work Drew Brees will be confident he can dominate the Vikings' secondary.

It appears to me that, barring a monster night for AP, the Saints should prevail in this one simply because the Vikings don't appear, at this moment, to be the force they were last year. Saints