NFL Week 16

How I Did Last Week: 6-9

Record on the season: 119-82

Quick Picks this week, folks. Merry Christmas!!

Titans at Chiefs: Kansas City has been a lot better than Tennessee running the ball this year, and just a little better in run defense. Add in the facts that the Chiefs are at home and they have more to play for and you'd have to think this is Kansas City's game to blow. Chiefs.

Colts at Raiders: Indianapolis did a phenomenal job of stopping the Jaguars rushing attack last week, and their best chance of repeating that trick against the Raiders will once again be to take an early lead, forcing Oakland to pass the ball more. But the Raiders have a top-five passing defense and, with Austin Collie is out again, I think we might just see Peyton Manning's poor form return. Raiders.

Seahawks at Buccaneers: Part of me still can't believe that the Seahawks can lose this one, slip to 6-9, and still have a shot at winning the NFC West, whereas the 8-6 Bucs can't afford anything but a win in both their final games to even have a chance at an NFC wildcard berth. Bucs.

Giants at Packers: Aaron Rodgers returns and that's a big boost to Green Bay's chances in this a huge clash in the race for an NFC wildcard spot. However the Packers inability to establish the run will cost them because it will allow the Giants fearsome pass-rushers to solely focus on getting to Rodgers. Not to mention that the Giants will be smarting from allowing that Philly comeback. Giants.

Saints at Falcons: New Orleans losing to Baltimore last week took a bit of the luster off this matchup, as the Falcons would now have to lose this game and against the Panthers in Week 17 for New Orleans to have a chance to win the NFC South division. Falcons.

Ravens at Browns: Ravens.

Patriots at Bills: Patriots.

49ers at Rams: 49ers

Lions at Dolphins: Dolphins.

Redskins at Jaguars: Jaguars.

Jets at Bears: Bears.

Texans at Broncos: Texans.

Chargers at Bengals: Chargers.

Vikings at Eagles: Eagles.

NFL Week 15

Ten (Not So) Quick Hits:

1/ The Colts came up big against the Jaguars, in what was effectively their first playoff game. They scored a touchdown on their opening drive and that set the tone for the entire game. They fired on all cylinders: Peyton Manning was stellar; their run defense stepped up, slowing down the red-hot Maurice Jones-Drew; and they even managed to establish the run themselves (only the second time they've had a back go over a 100 rushing yards this season). One must-win down for Indy, two more to go.

2/ Speaking of the Colts, their wide receiver Austin Collie got another tough break when he sustained his second concussion of the season after a brutal hit from linebacker Daryl Smith as he caught a ball over the middle. Collie had already caught two touchdown passes at that juncture. He'll be missed by Manning down the stretch, but, at this point, his long-term health is or should be an issue of far greater importance.

3/ Everyone loves a good comeback and the Eagles came up with a doozie at the Meadowlands. Down 31-10 with just over 8 minutes left in the game, they managed to produce a remarkable succession of plays, including a recovered surprise onside kick and two long Michael Vick runs, to pull level with only a little over a minute left. But then the magic really happened when DeSean Jackson scored a touchdown on a punt return to win the game as time expired. It was an extraordinary turnaround in a game that the Giants had comfortably dominated for the first three quarters.

4/ That was some show of leadership by Matt Cassel, back on the field after an emergency appendicitis. He had to be in pain (I'm sure I saw him wince, briefly, once or twice) but he played tough for the Chiefs, even taking off and scrambling a few times. Kansas City needed him back.

5/ Tebow wasn't asked to make many deep or difficult throws on his debut as the starting quarterback, but he did produce some moments of magic in the first half, most noticeably this play. Lots of people didn't think he could do that in the NFL.

6/ Aren't CBS announcers supposed to be unbiased? Gus Johnson and Steve Tasker were positively gushing over everything Tebow did Sunday as if they were hometown announcers. Look, I have nothing against the Florida kid, but there is undoubtedly some kind of media obsession with him. And it won't do him any favors in the long run, when announcers treat him as if he's the second coming of Steve Young as he's making his first start, and only a decent one at that.

7/ Love that call by Mike McCarthy, onside kick to start the game against the seemingly unstoppable Patriots. Against Tom Brady, with a backup quarterback, you gotta try anything you can to get momentum on your side.

8/ How about that block from Deion Branch on Tramon Williams on the Patriots' first touchdown? After his Week 4 trade, Branch has gone from an after-thought in Seattle to a huge part of the league's best offense. Another example of great wheeling and dealing by Bill Belichick.

9/ Looks like no one wants the number one overall pick in next year's draft. The Panthers, the Lions, the Bills and the Bengals (who had a combined record of 9-43 heading into the week) all won on Sunday.

10/ Nice of you to make an appearance, Cedric Benson...

Studs of the Week:

a. Ravens running back Ray Rice: Was almost the Ravens' entire offense against the Saints. He ran the ball 31 times for 153 yards and a score, adding 80 receiving yards and a touchdown on five catches.

b. Lions wide receiver Calvin Johnson: Made ten grabs for 152 yards, including some key catches at the end of the game to get Detroit into field goal range twice. Actually made Drew Stanton look pretty good.

c. Chiefs defensive end Wallace Gilberry: Is anything but a household name, but played like one against St. Louis. Got in Bradford's face repeatedly, victimizing the middle of St. Louis offensive line (center and guards). Recorded 3 sacks (forcing a fumble on one of them) and got two other shots in on Bradford.

Duds of the Week:

a. Rams quarterback Sam Bradford: Rough day for the 2010 number one overall draft pick in a game with serious playoff implications for St. Louis. Under pressure all day from the Chiefs defensive front, he was inaccurate with a lot of throws (completing less than 50 percent) and threw two interceptions.

b. Dolphins kicker Dan Carpenter: Hard to imagine a worse performance by a professional kicker than the one he delivered against Buffalo. Went 0-for-4 on field goals, including a 48-yarder that would have sent the game into overtime. Granted, they were all long kicks (48, 61, 53, 48), but at the NFL level, you'd expect him to hit at least one or two of those.

c. Seahawks Matt Hasselbeck: Maybe he gets more of the brunt of my negative attention because, living in the Northwest, I have to watch him week in and week out. But that mean he doesn't deserve his spot here. He threw two more picks against Atlanta, but it was his fumble that summed up his season. He tried to sidestep a defender in his own endzone, failed and fumbled, giving up a touchdown. Matt, you can't do that anymore, you ain't no Michael Vick.

Rookie of the Week: Browns quarterback Colt McCoy: Don't let the loss to Cincinnati fool you, McCoy was stellar in his return to the starting line-up. Completed 19 of 25 passes for 243 yards and a couple touchdowns. He continues to show great confidence and poise in the pocket. A lot of teams are kicking themselves for passing on him in the draft.

Play of the Week: He's known for making big plays. But this one was big even for him. First time in NFL history that, on the last play of the game, a punt has been returned for the winning touchdown.

Ridiculous Play of the Week: It was going to be this: the worst onside kick in the history of football??

Until this happened.

Picking NFL Week 15

How I did last week: 10-5

Decent apart from my upset pick: the Bears over the Pats....Oops.

Record on the season: 113-73

Seven straight winning weeks and the gap has widened nicely.

Chiefs at Rams: Crunch time for two of 2010's surprise teams, both of whom still have control of their own playoff destiny, should they win out. But, of course, they can't both win this one. If the game were in Kansas City, I'd favor the Chiefs. But they just don't have the same energy away from Arrowhead. Rams.

Cardinals at Panthers: Couldn't possibly list all the reasons I don't care about this game. Cardinals.

Eagles at Giants: The Giants almost figured out how to contain Michael Vick (force him to scramble to his right with your rushers and drop plenty of bodies into coverage) last time these teams faced off. I say they'll perfect it this time around. Giants.

Lions at Buccaneers: I'm predicting LeGarette Blount's third 100+ yards rushing game of the season. Bucs.

Browns at Bengals: You think there's any chance Cincinnati doesn't use its first round draft choice in 2011 on a quarterback? Meanwhile, the Browns have Colt McCoy back for the final three games of the season to see if he is real deal. All indications so far have been positive. Browns.

Bills at Dolphins: Miami just squeaked by Buffalo in Week 1, and aside from losing by 14 to Minnesota a couple weeks ago, the Bills haven't lost to any team by more than a field goal since Week 5. If the Bills can force the Dolphins into third-and-long and Chad Henne to throw, they'll like their chances. And Miami's been struggling to establish the run recently. Bills.

Redskins at Cowboys: Maybe Mike Shanahan is trying to prove to the world that he isn't getting old and soft, or maybe he genuinely felt Donovan McNabb had as much as to offer the Redskins in the future as Albert Haynesworth does (i.e. nothing). Either way, I have a hard time imagining that turning to Rex Grossman will make Washington that much better for the rest of 2010. Cowboys.

Jaguars at Colts: Fascinating matchup, because the Colts really can't afford to lose it, but they have been poor recently against the Jaguars. Maurice Jones-Drew is the hottest running back in the league right now, so Indianapolis will have to come up with a very special plan to stop him. Could this be the day we look back on in the future as the day the Colts dynasty ended, I wonder? Jaguars.

Saints at Ravens: Ravens defenses' of old would never have allowed those two consecutive 90+ yards touchdown drives in the fourth quarter that the 2010 edition did against the Texans on Monday. Not a good sign for Baltimore. Saints.

Texans at Titans: Think Andre Johnson might be a little fired up for his rematch with Cortland Finnegan?? My call: Johnson takes it, again. Only this time, by way of knockout. Texans.

Falcons at Seahawks: Atlanta is showing no signs of slowing down. Falcons.

Jets at Steelers: Pittsburgh may have lost Troy Polamalu for the season with an Achilles injury on Saturday. If that turns out to be the case, it'll undoubtedly cost them big in the playoffs. But, for this game, given the way Mark Sanchez and the rest of New York offense has been playing the past couple weeks, I don't see it being too much of a blow. Steelers

Broncos at Raiders: Anyone else been yearning for Tim Tebow get his first NFL start? See if he really can throw it at the professional level? Well, with Kyle Orton out injured, possibly the greatest college football player ever will get his chance to add to his one career pass attempt (a 3-yard touchdown toss, by the way) Sunday. Unfortunately for him, the Broncos match up horribly with Raiders, as the 59-14 beatdown Oakland handed them in October demonstrated. Raiders.

Packers at Patriots: Last week, without Aaron Rodgers for more than half the game, Green Bay managed only three points against the Lions. Now, with Rodgers out again they have to keep pace with the Pats who have averaged 39.2 points a game the last five weeks. Forget about it. Patriots.

Bears at Vikings: Jay Cutler said this week that playing on an icy outdoor college field would be tantamount to playing on a concrete parking lot. That's bad news for Joe Webb -- another rookie quarterback making his first start this week -- as the Bears are going to come after him with all kinds of pressure. Bears.

NFL Week 14

Ten (Not So) Quick Hits:

1/ It's official. In creaming the NFC North leading Bears in the snow in Chicago, the Patriots removed any shadow of doubt that they are the best team in the NFL right now. Not only do they have the league's best record but they have beaten the Steelers, the Colts, the Jets and now the Bears (four teams with a combined record of 35-17) over the last five week. Combined scores of those games: 151-64 in the Patriots' advantage. It's going to take a very special defense to stop that offense in the playoffs (deja vu anyone?).

2/ On a day of moderately entertaining games, the Jaguars-Raiders matchup really stood out. It was marathon of a game, full of big plays, and capped off by an impressive second-half comeback by Jacksonville. I could watch Maurice Jones-Drew and Darren McFadden run the ball all day every day.

3/ Can't say as much for the Lions-Packers or Jet-Dolphins games (Man, are the Packers a non-factor without Aaron Rodgers).

4/ Speaking of the Jets, they had two unbelievably bad final possessions as they tried to come from behind in the fourth quarter. They went three-and-out on the first after three straight Mark Sanchez incompletions (bad throws and a drop). On the second, they did manage to squeak two first downs, moving the ball to mid-field. But a spike, an incomplete pass, and two sacks later and the game was done.

5/ Worst day for the Chiefs since they were blown out by Denver in mid-November. Without the threat of Matt Cassel throwing deep, the Chargers defense focused on completely shutting down the Kansas City running game. And they did. San Diego moves to within one game of Kansas City in the AFC West. On the flip side, the Chiefs have three winnable games – at St. Louis, against Titans and Raiders – left to clinch the division.

6/ Neither the Falcons nor the Saints are letting up and it feels like the race for the NFC South is going down to the wire. New Orleans have won six straight, while the Falcons have won seven. Get your popcorn ready now for their week 16 Monday night clash.

7/ No Wade Philips/ Brad Childress effect in Denver. If anything, Josh McDaniels getting the boot translated into the Broncos playing worse against the Cardinals.

8/ Here goes T.O. again. If anyone truly believed that he had turned over a new leaf (and I doubt there were many), never forget that a Bengal doesn't change his stripes.

9/ Amazing footage from inside the Metrodome as the inflatable roof ripped open. It was like something out of “The Day the Earth Stood Still.”

10/ Really, Jets, this is what you're up to? To call this a bush league move would be an insult to the hundreds of highly-professional minor league baseball teams out there.

Studs of the Week:

a. Eagles wide receiver DeSean Jackson: Tore up the Cowboys with big play after big play. Had a career high 210 receiving yards on only 4 catches. His celebration after his 91 yard touchdown was pretty sweet too. Unless you're a Cowboys fan, of course.

b. Niners quarterback Alex Smith: An impressive 130.9 quarterback rating in his return to the starting line-up. Threw for three touchdowns, 255 yards and didn't turn the ball over. Should hold on to the quarterback job for at least another week.

c. Steelers linebacker LaMarr Woodley: How about this day for a linebacker? A pick-six, a defended pass, two sacks, two other quarterback hits, and five total tackles. The third-year man out of Michigan has become a huge part of Pittsburgh's dominant D.

Duds of the Week:

a. Broncos quarterback Kyle Orton: Had four turnovers, three interceptions and a fumble, on a rough day against Arizona. Completed 19 of 41 passes for 166 yards and a passer rating of 27.1.

b. Jets running backs Shonn Greene and Ladanian Tomlinson: Gained a combined 66 yards on 27 carries against Miami. That's a paltry 2.8 yard per carry average. I thought the Jets prided themselves on running the ball.

c. Seahawks quarterback Matt Hasselbeck: Made bad decisions and bad throws repeatedly, even throwing into double coverage once or twice. Had four passes picked off and lost a fumble on a Travis LaBoy hit. Inflated his numbers a little with some garbage time offense, but was poor when it mattered.

Rookie of Week: Cardinals quarterback John Skelton: Didn't post great numbers (15 of 37 passing for 146 yards with no touchdowns or picks) but a winning quarterback is a good quarterback. Particularly in Arizona this season. The key was that he avoided costly mistakes. Indeed, it was the first time this season that the Cardinals have had a quarterback not throw an interception nor take a sack in a game all season.

Play of the Week: Two weeks in a row for Mr. Polamalu.

Ridiculous Play of the Week: The snapper or the holder to blame on this one? Probably a little of both...

Picking NFL Week 14

How I did last week:10-5

A couple of comebacks really helped me out. Thank you Seattle and Atlanta.

Record on the season: 103-68

Up over 60 percent, baby!

Buccaneers at Redskins: The Bucs pleasantly surprised me last week by giving the Falcons a great game in Tampa. They may be hard pressed to make the playoffs this year – they're competing with the Saints, Giants, and Packers for a wildcard slot at this point – but Josh Freeman has proved he's going to a great long-term leader for them. Buccaneers.

Browns at Bills: Buffalo can't stop the run. Cleveland has a human wrecking ball, Peyton Hillis, running the football. Let's move on. Browns.

Giants at Vikings: Is Brett Favre really wise to continue to battle to keep his consecutive games played streak alive? If I was him, the last defensive line I'd want to face would be the Giants'. Minnesota's homefield advantage and ability to stop the run (they're fourth in the league in that statistical category) should keep this one close. But ultimately the G-men will have too much for the Vikes. Giants.

Packers at Lions: Aaron Rodgers was almost too good against the Niners last week. And he should have some more fun in Detroit's indoor Ford Field. Packers

Raiders at Jaguars: Two remarkably similar teams. Both run the ball exceptionally well (Jaguars are second while Oakland are third in the league). Neither stops the run particularly well (17th and 23^rd respectively). Both have so-so quarterbacks. Both flew under the radar with slow starts, but have got hot in recently. In a game this tight, give me the home team. Jaguars.

Bengals at Steelers: Remember when the Bengals went 6-0 in divisional games last season? Boy does that feel like ancient history...Steelers

Falcons at Panthers: There's a couple of contenders but this one could be the mismatch of the week. John Fox might want to consider running the ball on every offensive play just to keep the clock moving. Falcons.

Seahawks at 49ers: Seattle can make the NFC West title a two-horse race – between themselves and the Rams – by beating San Francisco here. But this division has been so messy all year, why would we get any more clarity now? 49ers.

Rams at Saints: Just like last week, New Orleans can't afford to give up any more ground to Atlanta. Saints

Patriots at Bears: Undoubtedly the best match-up of the weekend, particularly as the game is being played at Soldier Field. That's a huge advantage for the Bears, because the slippery natural grass of their home stadium will have the Wes Welkers and Danny Woodheads of New England losing their footing as they come out of their sharp cuts. Chicago's defense ain't bad either. I'm going with the upset here. Bears.

Broncos at Cardinals: I gotta to give the Cardinals fans some love here. Despite seven straight losses by the Cardinals, this game won't be blacked out in Arizona on Sunday, which means it sold out. Either people in Glendale don't have many options when it comes to things to do on the weekend, or they have a much more positive attitude than me. Broncos.

Dolphins at Jets: The Jets will remember that Monday night thrashing at the hands of Tom Brady and the Patriots for a long, long time. Miami might just bear the brunt of their humiliation. Then again, if Mark Sanchez plays like he has the past couple weeks, all bets are off. Jets

Chiefs at Chargers: Chiefs quarterback Matt Cassel may miss this one, which will put all the more pressure on Kansas City running game. San Diego has been hot and cold at stopping the run: they allowed 251 rushing yards against Oakland last week, but only 24 the week before against Indianapolis (not that the Colts are known for winning games on the ground or anything). Again homefield advantage will be key here. The Chargers are 4-2 at home while the Chiefs are 2-4 away from Arrowhead. Chargers.

Eagles at Cowboys: If the Cowboys could overcome the Eagles, after beating the Giants, Colts and Lions and losing narrowly to the Saints in the four weeks since Wade Phillips was “let go,” that would really be something. But I think the Eagles have been waiting for this game ever since January 9^th when Dallas knocked them out of last season's playoffs. Eagles.

Ravens at Texans: Joe Flacco is beginning to develop a bit of a reputation as someone who struggles in the clutch (witness his bounce pass to a wide-open Ed Dickson on fourth down in crunch time against Pittsburgh last week). He needs a big game against Houston's porous secondary to get his confidence back up. Ravens.

NFL Week 13

Ten (Not So) Quick Hits:

1/ The Colts have now lost three straight, leaving them with a 6-6 record (at the same point last year, they were 12-0). The questions about the possible end of the Indianapolis dynasty will only get louder this week. They have two huge division games – at the Titans and against the Jaguars – the next two weeks to prove the doubters wrong.

2/ It was going to take something special to break the Chargers' unbelievable December record (San Diego hadn't lost a December match-up since 2005, that's 18 straight wins) and the Raiders certainly produced it. They started hot, getting up by two scores in the first quarter, and then their defense, led by rookies Rolando McClain and Lamarr Houston, took over. Under constant pressure, Philip Rivers had an unpleasant day.

3/ Can you believe that the Bears have now beaten the Lions on questionable calls twice this season? I have to say I tend to agree with Lions coach Jim Schwartz's assessment that rookie defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh had a right to take that shot to get the running, weaving Jay Cutler down. An unnecessary roughness call would never have been made for that hit on a running back, which technically Cutler was at that point.

4/ Don't say it any louder than a whisper, but the 2010 St. Louis Rams might genuinely be headed to the playoffs as winners of the NFC West. Only one season after going 1-15 and being the laughingstock of the NFL.

5/ That was quite the turn-around from the last time the Broncos and Chiefs faced off, wasn't it? After allowing Denver to gain 452 net yards of offense on Nov. 14, Kansas City held them to 247 net yards on Sunday. The biggest difference was in the passing game where, using a variety of different schemes, they held the Broncos passing game to 86 yards, after giving up 299 yards through the air last time.

6/ I would have bet a lot of money Saturday that Chad Henne would get the better of Jake Delhomme in the quarterback matchup of the Browns-Dolphins game. I would have lost.

7/ We must be in December, because running backs got it going on Sunday. Nine rushers gained 100+ yards (4 more went for over 90) on a bad day for front sevens all around the league.

8/ Tampa Bay....You almost had me believing.

9/ I made a point last week about NFL players sometimes giving up on their struggling or unpopular coaches. Well, the Cowboys and Vikings are now a combined 4-1 since dumping Wade Phillips and Brad Childress. Just saying...

10/ Speaking of coaches getting no respect, check out this tantrum by Chiefs offensive lineman Jason Richardson.

- Here's some of the studs of the week:

a. Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers: Dissected the Niners secondary all afternoon, hitting 21 of his 30 passes for just under 300 yards. Threw three touchdowns without an interception for an impressive quarterback rating of 135.1.

b. Vikings receiver Sidney Rice: Caught five balls for 105 yards and a couple scores, including this one which illustrates exactly why he is such a redzone threat. Not bad in only his third game back from his hip surgery.

c. Jaguars running back Maurice Jones-Drew: Didn't score or post an unbelievable yards-per-rush average (6.0), but he was an absolute workhorse for Jacksonville. Carried the ball 31 times for 186 yards on the ground as Tennessee just couldn't clamp down on him.

- Here's some of the goats of the week:

a. Colts quarterback Peyton Manning: Don't think I'm picking on the living legend, but Manning deserves his spot here for the second straight week. He can't stop throwing interceptions (four on Sunday and nine in his last four games) and bad ones too: two of his picks were returned for touchdowns against Cowboys. “I made poor decisions, poor throws,” he said simply afterward.

b. Cardinals quarterback Derek Anderson: This guy's regular in this slot. Went a pedestrian 7 of 20 passing for 93 yards and an interception. Another shot for Max Hall, anyone?

c. Bengals defensive tackle Pat Sims: Was baited into jumping offside by Drew Brees on a 4^th and 2 at the Cincinnati 7, with 34 seconds left in the game and the Bengals leading 30-27. On the next play, Brees threw to Marques Colston for the winning score. He cost Cincinnati the shot at overtime they deserved.

- Rookie of the Week: Cowboys Linebacker Sean Lee: Showed his ability to drop into pass coverage, defending three Peyton Manning passes and intercepting two more. One of his interceptions was returned for six in the third quarter while the other put the Cowboys in position to kick the winning field goal in overtime (he gets bonus points for looking exactly like Ferris Bueller's buddy Cameron in this profile picture).

- Play(s) of the Week: 1/Focus on the positive – Donald Driver's sweet moves – rather than the negative – the Niners' abysmal tackling – on this play.

2/ Couldn't not give a mention to the best defensive play of the weekend.

- Ridiculous Play of the Week: Ridiculous in the sense that a premature celebration cost Leon Washington yet another kick return for a touchdown. Awesome in the sense Washington will hear about the amazing hustle play of Panthers punter Jason Baker for a long, long time.

Picking NFL Week 13

How I did last week: 10-3

As my friend Borat would say, “Very Nice.”

Record on the season: 93-63

That's looking a lot better, isn't it?

Browns at Dolphins: If Colt McCoy was under center for Cleveland in this one, the Dolphins might be in danger of losing their fourth out of five home games. But it doesn't appear that he will be (he hasn't practiced at all this week), so Miami can focus on stopping the run, and take their chances with Vontae Davis and co. in their secondary against Jake Delhomme's arm. Dolphins.

49ers at Packers: If they want to play deep into January, Green Bay is going to have to start getting more yards from their running game than the 26 they got on 11 carries by their running backs last week. However, for this game, California native Aaron Rodgers and his receivers alone should be too much to handle for San Francisco. Packers.

Broncos at Chiefs: Okay, call me a sucker for punishment but three weeks after picking Kansas City to beat Denver and watching them lose 49-29, I'm going with the Chiefs again. Why? Well, no part of me thinks the Broncos 30^th ranked run defense can bottle up for the league's best running game for a second straight time. And moreover, there's something about the aura of Arrowhead stadium for the first time in a few years: the Chiefs haven't lost there all year. Chiefs

Bills at Vikings: Buffalo has a knack for keeping games close and the Vikings are banged-up. But if Adrian Peterson can recover from an ankle sprain in time to play, he should have a nice day against the Bills abysmal, league-worst run defense. Vikings.

Bears at Lions: The Lions third-choice quarterback Drew Stanton – named this weekend's starter for Detroit on Wednesday – could be a a serious challenger to Titans third stringer Rusty Smith for the title of “QB the most in over his head in an NFL game in 2010” against Chicago's stingy defense. Bears.

Jaguars at Titans: The Jags have surprised me a couple times this year, and they may do so again. But I can't overlook the fact that they have consistently played badly against Tennessee in recent seasons, mainly because of Chris Johnson gashing them in the running and passing game. And with Kerry Collins back at quarterback for Tennessee, Jacksonville can't sell out on the run. Titans.

Redskins at Giants: The Giants are going sack-crazy recently and Donovan McNabb doesn't usually enjoy playing New York defensive Osi Umenyiora at the best of times. Giants

Saints at Bengals: Last year, this might have been the type of tough December game the Saints would have slipped up in, because they practically had their division already locked up. But this year, it's a different picture in the NFC South, and they're the ones playing catch up to 9-2 Atlanta. Saints.

Raiders at Chargers: The Raiders beat the Bolts by a touchdown in a week 5 match-up. But unless you've taken a month-long hiatus from watching football, you know that San Diego has turned it around in a big way the last few games, culminating with an embarrassment of Peyton Manning last Sunday night. And Jason Campbell ain't no Peyton Manning. Chargers.

Falcons at Buccaneers: I've said it repeatedly and I'll say it again: the closest the Bucs have come to beating a good team was squeaking a 18-17 win at home against the 5-6 Rams. And the Falcons are a very good team. Falcons.

Panthers at Seahawks: Was that: a/ A sign of life I got a glimpse of from the Panthers last weekend against Cleveland? b/ Or just Jake Delhomme letting his old team hang around?

Hate to say it Jake, but I think I'm going with answer b/. Seahawks

Rams at Cardinals: How much do think it irks the Cardinals that by only his 13^th week in the NFL Sam Bradford is already better than Derek Anderson, with his almost 6 years of experience, will ever be? And no amount of ranting will change that simple fact. Rams

Cowboys at Colts: When was the last time a late regular season game was a must-win for Indy? Colts.

Steelers at Ravens: Both teams will struggle to establish the run, but one thing I remember from their early October game was Joe Flacco's ability to complete passes on key third downs. And that's the Steelers's weakness on defense: they are a little worse than middle of the NFL pack in terms of defending the pass. But match-ups between these two giants of the AFC North are always ridiculously close, so why even bother trying to read into it too much? Ravens.

Jets at Patriots: New York certainly outplayed New England earlier this year, but since then Randy Moss has left and the Patriots passing game has really clicked. And even with stud cornerback Darrelle Revis back, the Jets pass defense isn't where it was last season. Patriots.

NFL Week 12

Ten (Not So) Quick Hits:

1/ I haven't been a big believer in either the Falcons or the Bears this season, but having had the rare opportunity to watch both teams play on Sunday, I'm here to tell you: they are for real, folks. Both will be genuine contenders for the NFC title.

2/ Speaking of the Falcons, Atlanta's offensive line may not boast a lot of big names but they are a very solid unit, in both run blocking and pass protection. One of the NFL's top five O-lines, and you can quote me on that.

3/ A team that's not for real? Well, how about Tampa Bay? Despite their 7-4 record, the Bucs still haven't beaten a team with a winning record. Josh Freeman certainly has the franchise headed in the right direction, but until they beat a good team, people just won't take them seriously.

4/ If Minnesota's win against Washington proved anything – in my mind at least – it's that there are quite a few NFL players who only try when they really want to. Just as the Cowboys looked like a different team in the first game after their head coach Wade Philips was let go, the Vikings shined their first time out after their generally disliked coach, Brad Childress, got fired. Coaches beware, keep those players on your side. They wield the real power in this league.

5/ Could we really see a Colt-less postseason for the first time since 2001?

6/ Nice return to the Dolphins QB starting job, Chad Henne. Now keep those interceptions down, and that job will yours for a long time.

7/ There wasn't a bigger sack this weekend than the Rams Chris Long's takedown of the Broncos Kyle Orton in the final minute of the game. Up until that point, Denver looked as if they might actually make a fourth quarter 20-point comeback happen.

8/ Do you know who Colts receiver Blair White is yet? Well, might be time to learn: the rookie has four touchdown receptions already in his eight-game (no starts) NFL career. That's more than Tony Gonzalez, Eddie Royal or – more relevantly perhaps – Pierre Garcon in 2010

9/ Great game by Giants rookie defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul against Jacksonville. He had two sacks (for minus 18 yards), another quarterback hit, two forced fumbles and five total tackles. New York's pass rush just got a little more fearsome.

10/ That was quite the scuffle, Cortland Finnegan and Andre Johnson. Finnegan is known around the league as a legendary trash-talker and he certainly ruffled Johnson's feathers on this occasion. Keep an eye on those two when the Titans and Texans meet again, only three weeks from now (and for years to come in the AFC.

- Here's some of the studs of the week:

a. Bears quarterback Jay Cutler: Made barely any bad throws for Chicago, completing 14 of 21 passes for 247 yards and four touchdowns. Even more importantly, he avoided any turnovers and led the Bears on three or four quick-scoring drives that stunned the Eagles.

b. Chiefs running back Larry Charles: Ran all over the Seahawks, amassing 173 yards on 22 carries at a 7.9 yard per carry average.

c. Chiefs wide receiver Dwayne Bowe: As if having Jamaal Charles dominate wasn't enough, Bowe had a career day himself, catching 13 balls for 170 yards and three touchdowns.

-Here's some of the goats of the week:

a. Titans quarterback Rusty Smith: Hate to see a rookie quarterback making his first NFL start featured on this list, but Smith was that bad against Houston. He completed only 54 percent of his 31 passes for 138 yards. He tossed three picks to boot, finishing with horrible 26.7 quarterback rating.

b. Panthers kicker John Kasay: Missed the game-winning 42-yard field goal as time expired, handing Cleveland a one-point victory. Earlier in the fourth quarter, he missed a 46-yarder. As if the Panthers weren't having a hard enough time already.

c. Colts quarterback Peyton Manning: Has seemed out-of-touch the last couple weeks and particularly susceptible to the interception. He threw four picks against San Diego, two of which were returned for touchdowns.

-Rookie of the Week: Rams quarterback Sam Bradford: Terry Bradshaw ranked Bradford number five on his list of top ten quarterbacks under the age of 30 Sunday morning, and Bradford then came out and played like it Sunday afternoon. He threw for over 300 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions on the day the Rams took the lead in the NFC West.

-Play of the Week: Mike Vick who? Ladies and gentlemen, Mr. David Garrard.

-Ridiculous Play of the Week: In overtime against the Steelers, Bills receiver Stevie Johnson literally had the game-winning ball in his hands. But it slipped through.

Picking NFL Week 12

I'm back after a one week hiatus (due not to an exotic vacation or a weekend of hardcore partying, I assure you).

How I did in Week 10: 8-5

Record on the season: 83-60

Packers at Falcons: Tough pick. Both teams are playing very well and Matt Ryan has an unbelievable record in the Georgia Dome: he's only lost one start at home in his first three seasons. However, two factors swing it back in Green Bay's favor: the Packers defense has really clicked the last three games – in 180 minutes of football, it has allowed only ten points – and I think Aaron Rodgers should be able to open up the Falcons secondary. Packers.

Titans at Texans: There are certainly better pass defenses Titans rookie quarterback Rusty Smith could be facing in his first NFL start. But he'll have to muster a lot of points to keep pace with Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson. Texans.

Vikings at Redskins: I'm calling for a Cowboys-like revitalization in Minnesota now that the much-disliked Brad Childress has finally got the chop. They'll play looser and more freely in Washington and that's usually a recipe for success with a talented roster like the one the Vikings possess. Vikings.

Jaguars at Giants: The Jaguars have been a bit of surprise this year; they're even leading the AFC South at 6-4 heading into the weekend. But if the Giants can bottle up Maurice Jones-Drew, who has had three straight 100+ yard rushing games, they'll like their chances of limiting Jacksonville's offense. Giants.

Steelers at Bills: The Bills may have a couple victories under their belts, but they have about as much of a chance of winning this game as Wade Philips does of getting another NFL head coaching gig anytime soon. Steelers.

Panthers at Browns: Now the Bills have won two straight, the Panthers have officially replaced them as the NFL's worst team. And they'll get a blast from the (very recent) past with their former quarterback Jake Delhomme starting against them on Sunday in place of the injured Colt McCoy. A heavy dose of Peyton Hillis should take care of this one for Cleveland. Browns.

Chiefs at Seahawks: Seattle has been gashed recently by strong running games (Raiders, Giants and Saints), so if I was Todd Haley, I'd ride Thomas Jones and Larry Charles all afternoon. This might be squeaker, particularly if Matt Hasselbeck and Mike Williams get going, but I think Kansas City has enough to take this one on the road. Chiefs.

Dolphins at Raiders: Oakland's powerful momentum came to an phenomenal halt against the Steelers last week as they lost 35-3. But it's no coincidence that the Raiders fell apart as they were being held to 61 yards of rushing and forced to pass the ball. Miami won't be able to limit Oakland rushing attack in the same way. Raiders.

Eagles at Bears: Philly's offense has being soaring in recent weeks (they're up to number 2 in the NFL in offensive yards per game), but Chicago's defense has been stellar all year. The really interesting match-up might take place on the other side of the ball with Jay Cutler facing the ball-hawking Eagles D, which leads the league with 19 interceptions. If Philadelphia's pass-rush can force Cutler into some bad throws, its secondary will gobble them up. Eagles.

Buccaneers at Ravens: The Bucs may be 7-3 but they haven't beaten a single team with a winning record. There's no reason for that to change on Sunday. Ravens.

Rams at Broncos: Denver looked like a different team when they crushed Kansas City a couple of weekends ago. But until I see more out of Denver, who have lost five out of their six, I'll keep considering that game something of a fluke. Rams.

Chargers at Colts: Vincent Jackson is finally getting back on the field for this one, but how much of an impact he'll have after months away is impossible to know. What we do know is that San Diego is ramping up one of its yearly late season pushes and Peyton Manning has a severely depleted receiving corps. Add in the fact that the Chargers have beaten the Cols in four of their last five meetings, and things don't look good for Indy. Chargers.

49ers at Cardinals: Not much of a glamor match-up for Monday Night football, but believe it or not, both these 3-7 teams could still win the NFC West. Not much to choose between the two – the 49ers haven't won an away game all year, but the Cardinals have lost five straight, home and away – but Frank Gore should be able to pick up some yards against Arizona's run defense. 49ers

NFL Week 10

Ten (Not So) Quick Hits:

1/ The Bills finally have a non-circular number in their loss column. And they didn't do it the easy way either, needing to stop a Detroit two-point conversion with 14 seconds on the clock and then to recover the ensuing onside kick to seal it. They deserve it though, one of these close games had to swing their way eventually.

2/ Can't say enough good things about the Bears defense after watching them do work against Minnesota. They were one blown coverage away from holding Brett Favre and co. without an offensive touchdown all game. Having middle linebacker Brian Urlacher back this year has been huge for them.

3/ Cowboys: 33 – Giants: 20. The kind of result that has NFL prognosticators up and down the country tearing their hair out.

4/ That was a huge three-and-out the Jets defense forced with under two minutes left in overtime after Sanchez had thrown a pick. Barring a big turnover, that was the only way they were going win in OT for the second time in as many weeks.

5/ Tom Brady has found a new red zone target, and his name is Rob Gronkowski. The rookie caught three touchdowns against Pittsburgh, taking his season total to six (that's third amongst tight ends in the whole league, behind only San Diego's Antonio Gates and Jacksonville's Marcedes Lewis). Along with the excellent receiving tight end Aaron Hernandez, and the excellent blocking tight end Alge Crumpler, the Patriots have completely rebuilt themselves this season at that position.

6/ A quarterback with the last name Smith might still lead San Francisco to the NFC West title. Don't laugh, folks, they're only two games back.

7/ Who knows what to expect out of these Denver Broncos? One week they'll lose 59-14 to the 2-4 Raiders. Another week, they'll win 49-29 against the 5-3 Chiefs. He may have been aided by some injuries in the Chiefs secondary, but Kyle Orton was still on fire Sunday. And I thought their defense couldn't stop the run...

8/ Five different quarterbacks threw passes in the Miami-Tennessee game Sunday (additionally, even Brandon Marshall had an attempted pass), and none of them did it particularly well. The best of the bunch, you ask? Probably Tyler Thigpen (remember him?) who went 4 of 6 passing and threw a game-sealing touchdown to Anthony Fasano.

9/ In case you didn't know it yet, Randy Moss, like a Thanksgiving turkey, is done. In his second over-hyped debut in as many months, Moss caught just one ball for 26 yards. I think I agree with all the NFL teams that didn't bite on him after the Vikings cut him Nov. 1. His skills just aren't worth the trouble he inevitably will cause in a team's chemistry anymore.

10/ Marshawn, my man, what is that on your face?

-Here's some of the studs of the week:

a. Seahawks wide receiver Mike Williams: Tore up the Cardinals secondary, caused cornerback Greg Toler's benching at halftime because Toler couldn't cover him, and finished with 11 catches for 145. He single-handedly makes Seattle's offense much more potent, and he should get some serious consideration for the Comeback Player of the Year award.

b. Bills running back Fred Jackson: The CFL and NFL Europe veteran produced one of his better days in the NFL providing 133 yards of rushing and 37 yards of receiving on a ugly day (weather-wise) where offensive yards were at a premium. Scored both of Buffalo's touchdowns too.

c. Cowboys quarterback John Kitna: Wasn't statistically the best quarterback in Week 10 but, after getting roundly criticized by sportswriters (myself included) the last few weeks, he deserves some credit for producing a good, 327-yard passing game capped off by a couple touchdowns.

-Here's some of the goats of the week:

a. Titans quarterbacks Kerry Collins and Vince Young: Both struggled with their accuracy: Collins completed 9 of 20 passes and was benched; Young came in and completed 9 of 18 passes. Neither topped a hundred passing yards and both their passer ratings hovered around 60.

b. Vikings receiving corps: Percy Harvin aside, Minnesota's pass catchers didn't give Favre much help Sunday. They kept losing their footing on Chicago's grass and dropped a lot of passes. It showed once Harvin went off too, as the Vikings really struggled to move the ball through the air afterward.

c. Jets kicker Nick Folk: Lost his job in Dallas because he missed a couple big kicks, and he could well be on his way out of New York now after an awful day in Cleveland. Missed three of five kicks – from 48, 24, and 47 yards – against the Browns which allowed them to hang around in normal and overtime.

-Rookie of Week: Cowboys wide receiver Dez Bryant: Only caught three passes on Sunday, but made each one of them count. The first went for 45 yards, the second was a touchdown grab and the third went for 46 more yards. No doubt about it, he has the tools to dominate in this league.

-Play of the Week: As an Oregon fan, part of me can't believe I'm doing this, but it's going to LeGarette Blount again, for going airborne once more.

-Ridiculous Play of the Week: Do you really need to ask?? HAIL MARY!

Picking NFL Week 10

How I did last week: 10-3

It's nice to finally feel like I actually know something.

Record on the Season: 75-55

Fingers crossed, this is where I start my Oakland Raiders-like roll.

Bengals at Colts: Carson, your time is almost up. Colts.

Jets at Browns: Could the Browns really upset the Saints, the Patriots and the Jets in three straight games? Well, with the Jets recent offensive's struggles, it could happen. But I say New York's top five run-defense will load the box to focus on shutting Peyton Hillis down and dare Colt McCoy to beat Darrelle Revis, Antonio Cromartie in one-on-one matchups on the outside. And that will be too tall an order for the rookie QB. Jets.

Vikings at Bears: Respective records say the Bears should win this comfortably. But after Minnesota's pass rush (and especially Jared Allen) finally got going last week – they picked up 6 sacks against Arizona and Allen got 2.5 of those – I see them having a very good day against Chicago offensive line. Vikings.

Titans at Dolphins: Kerry Collins vs. Chad Pennington...What is this, preseason ball? Titans.

Texans at Jaguars: Two of the NFL's worst five defenses should yield plenty of yards for running backs Arian Foster and Maurice Jones-Drew, but Jacksonville's will come up with just a couple more stops. Jaguars.

Lions at Bills: Call me crazy but, with Matthew Stafford out and the Bills tip-toeing closer to a victory every week, I think this is the week Buffalo wins its first 2010 game. Bills.

Panthers at Buccaneers: If the Bucs have done one thing well this season, it's beat bad teams. They're 4-0 against teams with losing records (and 0-3 against winning teams) and I see no reason for that trend to turn around against Carolina. Bucs.

Chiefs at Broncos: Todd Haley has got to be in the running for coach of the year. He's already won more games (5) than he did all year last season (4). So often talk of rebuilding a franchise rings hollow (just ask Buffalo fans) but for Kansas City, Haley is really doing it. That being said, the Chiefs can't afford to lose this important divisional game and allow the streaking Chargers or Raiders to get any closer in the AFC West. Chiefs.

Rams at 49ers: Troy Smith produced some magic in London two weeks ago to lead a 49ers comeback against Denver, but whether he can repeat the trick remains to be seen. The Rams actually feature a top ten defense, in terms of yards allowed, this season. They'll give Smith some trouble. Rams.

Cowboys at Giants: I think the Cowboys will play noticeably better this week for Jason Garrett, now that Wade Philips is gone. But the Giants are on a tear right now, they're playing at home and John Kitna isn't scaring anybody. Giants.

Seahawks at Cardinals: It feels like these two just played each other. Actually they did, only three weeks ago. The Seahawks won on that occasion – 22-10 in Seattle – but neither team has won a game since. The NFC West is so bad I almost feel like the Cardinals will win just to keep the division picture murky. But speaking of murky, how about that Arizona quarterback situation? (Can't say I didn't call it) Seahawks.

Patriots at Steelers: I'm predicting a big bounce-back week for the Patriots in this one. The Steelers didn't impress in their two prime time appearances in Weeks 8 and 9, with a 1-1 record which could have easily been an 0-2 record but for Cincinnati's dreadful start last Monday. Their offense will struggle to score as many points as New England's. Patriots.

Eagles at Redskins: Things were a lot more fun in Washington for Donovan McNabb last time he played against his old team. After his controversial benching in the final two minutes of the Redskins last game against Detroit and the slightly ridiculous media response, his relationship with coach Mike Shanahan will be under constant scrutiny in coming weeks. Eagles.

NFL Week 9

Ten (Not So) Quick Hits:

1/ Jerry Jones should have fired Wade Phillips at halftime. On the sideline, Wade looked like he knew it. The Cowboys are an embarrassment of a team. There is no other applicable word. (I actually feel bad for the guy, he's a beaten man)

2/ The players can complain about harsher hitting penalties all they want but when you see a helmet-to-helmet hit like the one Austin Collie took against Philadelphia and Collie laying motionless afterwards, you understand why they feel like they need to do anything they can to avoid a potential life-altering disaster.

3/ All of Detroit is holding this morning its breath as we wait for an update on Matthew Stafford's newest shoulder injury, on the same throwing shoulder which he separated earlier this season. That injury caused him to miss five games. More generally, though, Stafford has struggled to stay healthy in his young NFL career, and it's got to be beginning to become a concern for the Lions franchise.

4/ In this crazy season, where new best teams seem to emerge every week, keep an eye on the New York Giants. They've now won five in a row (on top of which they get Dallas next week) and in the NFC, where parity seems particularly dominant, that's no mean feat. Circle that Week 11 Sunday Night matchup against the 5-3 Eagles as a must-see.

5/ No let-up by the Saints defense then. They picked up right where they left off against the Steelers last week. They held Carolina (okay it is only Carolina) to three points and under 200 yards of total offense, on top of which they forced two turnovers.

6/ Asante Samuel might be the only cornerback in the league who loves playing against Peyton Manning. He had some famous interceptions of Peyton back when he played for the Patriots, and he repeated the trick, twice, on Sunday. Bet Manning's glad the Colts only play the Eagles once every four years in regular season games.

7/ If the Bills don't win one of these close games soon....I don't even know what to say. They've lost three straight games by a field goal. Best 0-8 team you'll see in a while.

8/ Stat of the week: the Atlanta Falcons are now 17-1 at home with Matt Ryan as their starting quarterback.

9/ Forget Jake Delhomme. Forget Seneca Wallace. Rookie Colt McCoy has proved himself enough to be the guy for the Cleveland quarterback job.

10/ I don't who to believe in this dust-up.

-Here's some of the studs of the week:

a. Packers linebacker Clay Matthews: No doubt in my mind that Matthews, only in his second NFL season, is the best defensive player in the league right now. After not even practicing this week, Matthews was all over the field Sunday. He really can do everything. He picked up another sack (he leads the league in that category), had two other quarterback hits, made three tackles, defended two passes, and even scored his second NFL touchdown. No wonder teammate Charles Woodson likes to call him the 'Claymaker.'

b. Raiders receiver Jacoby Ford: Made three spectacular and crucial plays which pushed the Raiders past the Chiefs. He returned the opening kick of the second for a touchdown, and then he made both big catches (a 29-yarder and a 47-yarder) which put the Raiders in field goal range to first send the game to overtime, and then to win it. The speedster finished with 306 all-purpose yards.

c. Browns running back Peyton Hillis: Pretty much was the Browns offense in a smackdown of the Patriots. His 184 rushing yards were almost half of the team's entire offensive production of 404 yards. Expect the Browns to continue to play good, old-school football with him carrying the rock.

d. Vikings quarterback Brett Favre: Was far from perfect Sunday (two interceptions thrown), but still threw for 446 yards (the highest single-game passing yardage in his career), two touchdowns and completed 76 percent of his 47 passes. He makes this list though because of the fantastic fourth quarter comeback he led, bringing the Vikings back from 14 points down with under five minutes to play. Say what you will about Favre and his legacy in the sport, but when it comes to leading comebacks in the final few seconds, there are very few quarterbacks on the all-time list he would have to take a backseat to.

e. Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers: Makes any receiver he plays with look like a superstar (Peyton comparisons on the horizon someday soon??) and throws the best deep ball in football. On the day, his passer rating was 137.2, as he completed 17 of 23 passes for 295 yards and four TDs.

-Here's some of the goats of the week:

a. Panthers quarterback Jimmy Clausen: Certainly didn't look like the top ten draft pick he was once thought to be before last year's draft. He completed 8 of 18 passes after Matt Moore left the game with an injury. He also threw two interceptions to end with a 28.5 passer rating.

b. Seahawks quarterback Charlie Whitehurst: Was another fresh quarterback face struggling Sunday. Started in place of the concussed Matt Hasselbeck and silenced anyone who may been calling for the latter's benching. He threw two interceptions and was 12-of-23 for 113 yards passing.

c. Chiefs running back Thomas Jones: Found out just how hard it is to run on Oakland's defensive line as he was held to 32 yards on 19 carries, a paltry 1.7 average.

d. Cowboys receiver Miles Austin: Has the tools to be a dominating presence in any game he plays, but has disappeared during the Cowboys losing streak. Had three 100-yard receiving games in the first four games, but only one since. Two catches for 16 yards went his stat line Sunday. Sure, he doesn't have Romo throwing to him anymore, but he's done little to make Kitna better.

-Rookie of the Week: Chargers receiver Seyi Ajirotutu: What is it with receivers with long, complicated names taking the NFL by storm recently? After Devin Aromashodu, Danny Amendola and Michael Hoomanawanui, we may have discovered a new one in my boy, Seyi Ajirotutu. The undrafted rookie, a college roommate of Chargers first round pick Ryan Matthews at Fresno State, caught four passes for 111 yards and two touchdowns, including this beaut.

-Play of the Week: DeSean Jackson. Doing work.

-Ridiculous Play of the Week: Ridiculous play of the week, ridiculous play of the season, and maybe of the decade. With the Lions regular kicker injured a few plays earlier, 307-pound rookie defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh stepped up to tack on an extra point after a Detroit touchdown. This is what happened. You can bet Suh will be hearing it for a while from his father, a former semi-professional soccer player, and his sister, a collegiate soccer player at Mississippi State, after that one.

Picking NFL Week 9

How I did last week: 7-6

Peyton Manning and Clint Session helped me squeak another winning week.

Record on the season: 65-52

Boy, that's a lot of losses.

Chargers at Texans: I badly want to pick Texans because I've been burned by the Chargers poor form away from Qualcomm Stadium so many times this season. But Houston's defense gives up a ton of points (a minimum of 24 in every game they've played), and I think Philip Rivers will have a monster day against their weak secondary. Chargers.

Cardinals at Vikings: Two teams with very sticky quarterback situations will try to establish the run to win the game. Give me the one with Adrian Peterson running the ball. Vikings.

Saints at Panthers: Over the last two years, the Saints have made a habit of underperforming in games against unfancied opponents just like this one. So I expect this matchup to be much closer than everyone thinks after the Saints played well against Pittsburgh. But could they really play down to Carolina's level enough to lose to them?? Saints.

Patriots at Browns: I'm officially jumping on the New England bandwagon. Their defense, which was supposed to be very bad, has in fact taken great strides this season while their offense, with or without Randy Moss, has continued to roll. Best team in the league eight weeks. Patriots

Bucs at Falcons: Be wary of Bucs corner Aqib Talib, Matt Ryan. He'll be waiting for that deep ball you like to throw to Roddy White. Falcons.

Bills at Bears: Unfortunately for Buffalo, they don't have the pass rushing weapons to get after the Chicago's biggest weakness, its offensive line. The Bills rank 25^th in the league in sacks with 11, and the Bears have usually found a way to win games when their offensive line isn't completely overpowered. Bears.

Dolphins at Ravens: The Ravens have only one game by more than 7 points all year. The Dolphins have only once by more than 5 all season. Expect a squeaker, folks. Ravens.

Jets at Lions: Going with the upset in this one. Sure the Jets can't possibly be as bad on offense as they were last week but I think Detroit can score the points to keep up with them. A combination of injuries and a big contract appear to have slowed Darelle Revis down a step or two this season. Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson might just pick on him a little bit. Lions.

Giants at Seahawks: Seattle's undefeated record in home games will be severely tested by a New York team that rebounded from a poor 1-2 start to win four straight before its last week. The key matchup in this one will be the Seahawks offensive line against New York's impressive array of pass-rushers, because, as you may have heard, Matt Hasselbeck took 8 sacks last week. And I think the bruising will continue Sunday. Giants.

Colts at Eagles: Michael Vick may give the Colts fits with his legs, but Peyton Manning's arm will terrify the Eagles lackluster secondary. Colts.

Chiefs at Raiders: I love most everything the Chiefs have been doing this season, but after what has happened the last two weeks (reminder: Oakland won their two games by a combined 75 points and I picked against them both times), how am I not going to pick Raiders in front of their home crowd? Raiders.

Cowboys at Packers: Hah. If you think there's any chance of me picking the Cowboys again after last week's performance until they've actually won about five games, you're sadly mistaken. Just on principle if nothing else. Packers.

Steelers at Bengals: Can't see the Steelers losing two primetime games in a row, especially against an underachieving Bengals team that has lost four straight games. Cincinnati's dominance of the AFC North looks more like a one year fluke every time a week goes by this season. Steelers.

NFL Week 8

Ten (Not So) Quick Hits:

1/ Oakland is suddenly the league's hottest team. They've won their last two games by a combined margin of 75 points and both their offense and defense continue to purr. I caught the last few minutes of their beatdown of Seahawks, when the game was already long gone, and all I can say is, that looked like one confident sideline.

2/ Why, oh, why did you allow yourself to be talked back into this league, Brett Favre? Your body can't take hits like this anymore.

3/ The Saints offense is clicking again and, just like year, it's impressive. Their short passing game took the sting out of the Steelers pass-rush (probably the best part of Pittsburgh's D) and took very calculated shots down-the-field. When you're making Steelers safety Troy Polamalu look bad in pass coverage – and New Orleans did that repeatedly – you know you're playing well.

4/ If Sunday showed us one thing, it's that having Matthew Stafford back healthy is going to make Detroit a lot better. I expect a big second half out of them.

5/ Is it weird that Chris Johnson is second in the league in rushing but, because of his lofty preseason goals and his 2000+ yards of last season, people seem to be considering his season so far a failure?

6/ The Jets offense certainly didn't play well (more on this later), but Green Bay's banged-up D more than played its part in shutting New York out.

7/ San Francisco has been crying out for a spark-plug all season, and though he is by no means the finished article, quarterback Troy Smith, with his mobility and the winner's mentality he acquired in college, may be just that.

8/ Every week, Dallas seems to hit rock bottom. And then they lose the next week too. They have a brutal last nine games, and the way they're playing right now, I could honestly see them finishing the year with three total wins or less. They haven't that bad since the late 1980s.

9/ I thought you were hurt, Antonio Gates...

10/ That was some press conference, Mr. Moss.

-Here's some of the studs of the week:

a. Jaguars quarterback David Garrard: Played as well as he ever has for Jacksonville, picking on a Cowboys defense that is giving up over 30 points a game on average the last four weeks. He was almost perfect, completing 17 of 21 passes for 4 touchdowns and 260 yards. Now if he can only do this, or something like it, consistently.

b. Chiefs running back Jamaal Charles: Averaged 8 yards a carry on a big day where he collected 177 yards on the ground. Didn't get into the endzone, but consistently broke big runs against the Bills.

c. Lions defensive end Kyle Vanden Bosch: Picked on Redskins rookie left tackle Trent Williams all day, collecting two sacks – forcing a game-sealing fumble with one of them – and four other quarterback hits. That's exactly Jim Schwartz paid big free-agent bucks for him this offseason.

d. Raiders receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey: Caught five balls for 105 yards and a touchdown, showing his deep-threat ability. He took his knocks after being a major disappointment as a rookie last year, but he's beginning to show why Oakland liked him so high in that draft.

e. Rams middle linebacker James Laurinaitus: Did everything you could possibly want out of a middle linebacker. He was all over the field: he made 7 tackles, got a sack, intercepted a pass, and defended another. The second year man is a big part of the Rams defensive improvement.

-Here's some of the goats of the week:

a. Jets offense: I usually put individuals, not entire units, here. That should give you an idea how bad the Jets offense was. Three turnovers inside Green Bay territory; numerous dropped passes; and a quarterback completing 42 percent of his passes and throwing two picks all added up to zero points on the board in four quarters of football. A missed 37-yard field goal by Nick Folk was as close as they got to troubling the scorers.

b. Cardinals quarterback Max Hall: Was benched before the end of the first half after throwing 2 interceptions and completing 8 of 16 passes for 71 yards. This has to be the week that Ken Whisenhunt figures out Hall isn't ready to be an NFL starting quarterback yet.

c. Seahawks offensive line: Completely overpowered by the Raiders front seven. They gave up eight sacks of Matt Hasselbeck (by five different players), allowed countless other pressure, and couldn't run block either: the Seahawks ended with 47 yards of net rushing on 19 attempts.

d. Panthers quarterback Matt Moore: Was back to his disappointing early season self against St. Louis. A paltry 51.0 quarterback rating and three interceptions thrown.

e. Steelers tight end Heath Miller: Made this list for just one play: this boneheaded one. Completely took the wind of Pittsburgh's sails.

-Rookie of the week: A committee: After scrounging around for potential candidates for my last few columns, there were suddenly too many good rookie performances to choose from on Sunday. There was Rams quarterback Sam Bradford leading his team back to .500, Tampa Bay running back LeGarette Blount vaulting his way to an excellent day and Ndamukong Suh sacking away and scoring his first NFL touchdown. Take your pick.

-Play of the Week: That's how you get low, Derek Cox.

-Ridiculous Play of the Week: If T.O. ever makes it to Canton, I bet this won't make it to his highlight reel.

Picking NFL Week 8

How I did last week: 8-6.

Not exactly clairvoyant (I picked the Broncos, who only lost by 45 points) but I'll always take a winning week any day.

Record on the season: 58-46

Inching (and that's no exaggeration) up towards 60 percent on my picks. That would be a nice number to hit.

Bills at Chiefs: The play of quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick has given hope to Buffalo fans. Hope at least that they might win one game at some point this season. Fitzpatrick quarterback rating on the season is 102.2, second only to Peyton Manning's, believe it or not. Talk about shining in obscurity. So yes, I predict the Bills will win a game this season, it just won't be against the upstart Chiefs at Arrowhead on Sunday. Chiefs.

Panthers at Rams: With Matt Moore suddenly back in form, this actually looks like a interesting game because Moore was so effective at running Carolina's offense when he started last year. But last year is last year, and Sam Bradford and the Rams organization is turning it around in 2010. Rams.

Broncos at 49ers: Call it a leap of faith but I like former Heisman winner Troy Smith getting the start ahead of David Carr at quarterback this week. I never felt that Smith got a fair shot at the starting job in Baltimore. But his main job on Sunday will be handing off to Frank Gore, who has to have a big game against the disappearing act that is Denver run's defense. 49ers

Redskins at Lions: Matthew Stafford's back. Great news for the Lions, but there's bound to be a bit of rustiness for the second-year man on Sunday. The Redskins have specialized in playing close games this year, and rustiness costs you in close games. Redskins.

Packers at Jets: Green Bay showed some signs of life against Minnesota last week after a disappointing 3-3 start. But the Jets have shown this season that they do many different things well. On top of that they're at home and have had a bye to rest up for this one. Jets.

Dolphins at Bengals: I liked Cincinnati in this one until I found out this nugget: the Bengals have only one fully fit cornerback, rookie Brandon Ghee, going into Sunday's game. Against a team with a big target like Brandon Marshall and one of the league's best slot receivers, Davone Bess, that's not great news. Dolphins.

Jaguars at Cowboys: This game has redemption victory written all over it for Dallas. Starting quarterback lost for the season, playoffs all but gone, ditto for the head coach, a furious owner, and players who want to prove they're better than the product they've been putting out on the field for the season's first seven weeks. Jon Kitna will pass for minimum 300 yards, and the Cowboys defense will come up with some big takeaways. Cowboys.

Titans at Chargers: If last Sunday's game against the Eagles proved anything, it's that the Titans doesn't need Chris Johnson to put points on the board. Even with Johnson being held to 66 yards, they still scored 37 points on Philly. On top of that, in terms of points allowed, the Titans D is much better than the Chargers. Titans.

Buccaneers at Cardinals: I wonder if a bookie would take a bet on third string Cardinals quarterback, John Skelton, getting into this game at some point.Bucs.

Vikings at Patriots: Brett Favre's streak of 316 straight starts (including playoff games) may well be in jeopardy on Sunday because of his ankle injury. Favre has hinted that he could play but Vikings head coach Brad Childress appears to be thinking that fielding a hurt Favre, who isn't playing very well anyway, might not be the best route for the franchise to take. Regardless of who starts under center, the Patriots, one the few consistently impressive teams in the league this year, will be too much for the Vikes to handle. Patriots.

Seahawks at Raiders: One question will determine the winner of this one: Can the Raiders run the ball on Seattle? Oakland rushed for 328 yards against Denver – with Darren McFadden accounting for over half of that – but the Seahawks have been miserly against the run this season, allowing just 77.5 yards of rushing a game (second only to the Steeler D). So it's strength against strength. And I've generally found that, when it comes to running the ball, a strong run defense will shut down a good runner. Seahawks.

Steelers at Saints: An interesting match-up between last year's Superbowl-winning team and the team that many think could be this year's champion. The Saints will want to show that they're not out of it yet, but neither their offense nor their defense has been as good as last season so far. Meanwhile, the Steelers defense might be the most impressive single unit (on either side of the ball) in the NFL at the moment. Steelers.

Texans at Colts: Houston finally beat longtime nemesis Indianapolis earlier this year. To repeat the upset they'll have to rely on a heavy dose of Arian Foster, as the Colts still rank in the top ten of the league's worst rushing defenses. The Foster surprise factor is gone this time around, however, while the Texans pass defense is so porous that it's giving up over 300 yards a game through the air. Can't see Peyton Manning missing out on that a second time. Colts.