Combine Risers and Sliders: RBs, QBs, and WRs
Risers:
Jacoby Ford, WR, Clemson: Ran an unofficial 4.27 40. The last player to run a sub 4.3 40 was Chris Johnson in 2008 and we all know how that turned out. He also caught the ball well in the drills and ran smooth routes. But ultimately it's that explosive speed that will have NFL GMs drooling.
Golden Tate, WR, Notre Dame: The biggest questions surrounding Tate were his size and pure speed at the next level. Well, he may not be able to do anything about his 5'10, sub 200-pound frame, but he answered a lot of doubts with a 4.42 40 (fourth best amongst wideouts). He also was a top performer in the bench press and broad jump. Could now be a first round choice come April.
Jarrett Brown, QB, West Virginia: Of the quarterbacks who threw the football on Sunday, Brown was by far the best. His throws were accurate and had plenty of zip on them. He also ran a 4.53 40, by far the fastest time of the QBs. No way he's a day 1 starter in the NFL but he could be an intriguing project for a number of teams in the third or fourth round.
Jahvid Best, RB, California and Toby Gerhart, RB, Stanford: Both of them ran great 40s, in the low 4.3s for Best and low 4.5s for Gerhart (with an extra 32 pounds on board). Best proved himself to be the fastest of the running backs while Gerhart proved to NFL scouts that he can a running back, and not a fullback, at the next level.
Stickers:
Tim Tebow, QB, Florida: “Stickers” don't usually make a risers and sliders list, but given all the attention and hype Tebow was getting from the NFL Network at the Combine (if he had been throwing the ball, I'm not sure any of the other QBs would have got any camera time at all), I thought I should let you know how he did. Well, as expected, he performed like the great athlete he is: a 9'7” broad jump, a 38.5' vertical leap and a 4.72 40. But his athleticism is not what anyone in the NFL is concerned about. And that's why he's a sticker. That workout will not have alleviated any of the other concerns about him.
Sliders:
Dan LeFevour, QB, Central Michigan: LeFevour found out the hard way that without a valid injury excuse, it's never a good idea for a quarterback to choose not to throw at the Combine (unless your name is Tim Tebow of course). Scouts, NFL coaches and analysts were perplexed and disappointed at LeFevour's decision and you can understand why. As a small-school product, the Combine would have been the perfect opportunity for LeFevour to show he belonged with the top prospects. (Two years ago, Joe Flacco did just that and propelled himself in the first round). Sensing a PR nightmare, LeFevour did throw at some motionless targets on Sunday but that won't have been enough to shake the sour 'quitter' taste he left in a lot of NFL people's mouths.
Sean Canfield, QB, Oregon State: Maybe Canfield is wishing he pulled a LeFevour...On a day where most of the quarterbacks failed to wow anyone, Canfield was the worst of the bunch. The accuracy of his throws was poor, and his arm strength will be questioned.
Mardy Gilyard, WR, Cincinnati: Couldn't crack 4.6 in his two attempts at the 40. That's a problem for a player who made a name for himself in college by breaking big down-field plays. You can't do that in the NFL at 4.6 pace. I do get the feeling that Gilyard, who is a very cool customer (complete with bandana, sunglasses, dreadlocks et al.), has always been more a gamer than a workout type guy. But still, that 40 might scare some people off.
Dezmon Briscoe, WR, Kansas: Briscoe wasn't expected to be drafted much higher than the fourth or fifth round anyway, but he could fall further after an unimpressive combine workout. He only managed 9 reps at the bench which in itself isn't a deal-breaker, but looks worse when coupled with a 4.61 40.
Feb 28, 2010
Feb 27, 2010
NFL Combine: Saturday
-The biggest questions on everyone's minds right now is: what are the Rams going to do with the first overall pick? St. Louis GM Billy Devaney announced on Friday that the team's management has narrowed it down to four potential picks. Those players are assumed to be quarterbacks Sam Bradford of Oklahoma and Jimmy Clausen of Notre Dame and defensive tackles Ndamukong Suh of Nebraska and Gerald McCoy also of Oklahoma. I've already seen mock drafts by various analysts with either Bradford, Suh or McCoy at the top (and I do think Clausen is an extreme long shot).
The skinny on this is that Suh and McCoy are considered to be the two most talented players in the draft. Both are also believed to have far less 'bust potential' than Bradford (No one seems to be able to say for sure who's the better of the two, but Suh, probably because of how he finished he senior year, has the slight edge.)
But in the last couple of days, Bradford has come roaring back. His surgically-repaired shoulder is holding up fine in his practice sessions and he's added 12 pounds to the frame NFL scouts thought was too skinny.
On the back of this news, I think the number one spot is Bradford's to lose. Let's not forget that this is a player who could have pushed Matthew Stafford to be the number 1 pick last year after the unbelievably good junior he had behind the nation's best offensive line in 2008. Add to that that the Rams desperately need a quarterback, a face for their franchise and are still kicking themselves (probably) for passing on Mark Sanchez last year.
Six out of the Rams last nine first round picks have gone to either their offensive or defensive line without a great deal of success. I think they'll say “we need a change and a quarterback”, and roll the dice of Bradford, thus making him the first first-round pick used on a quarterback by the Rams since Billy Munson in 1964 (now there's a fun bit of trivia to impress your friends with).
-Combine Risers and Sliders: Offensive Line and Tight Ends
Risers:
Bruce Campbell, T, Maryland: People expected him to shine in the combine because of his athleticism and he didn't disappoint. Ran a 4.85 40, fastest of the offensive linemen and faster than some tight ends. Showed great ups in the vertical leap, had 34 reps at the bench and looked sharp in all the other drills. He is the most athletic of the offensive tackles in the draft and he had the kind of workout that could make a team fall in love with him and draft him higher than he perhaps should be, given that he only has 17 college starts to his name.
Mitch Petrus, G, Arkansas: Anytime you tie a combine record at a particular drill, you earn yourself a few extra bucks. Petrus did that knocking out 45 reps at the bench. Probably not a name you'll hear called out in the first two rounds, but NFL teams will love that strength.
Dorin Dickerson, TE, Pittsburgh: His 40 time, 4.40, had some people wondering if he should convert to wide receiver. Others were comparing him to speedy Packers tight end Jermichael Finley. Either way that's a 40 time that going to create a lot of buzz in the next eight weeks.
Dennis Pitta, TE, BYU: Best looking hands of any of the tight ends in the Combine. The success of Austin Collie, another BYU receiving prospect, for the Colts last season might stir up even more interest in him as a solid possession receiver in a pass-happy offense.
Sliders:
Jermaine Gresham, TE, Oklahoma: Fitness questions muddy the Gresham situation. He's still the top rated tight end on most draft boards, but he missed all of '09 with an ACL injury and worked out like a player feeling his way back to full strength.
If you're a 'glass is half-full' kind of person, seeing him complete all the drills without any twinges in his knee was enough to say his day was a successful one. If not, you'll see that he was expected to run faster than 4.72 in the 40 and that he only managed 20 reps on the bench. His hands looked sloppy too. He will need a better Pro Day to cement his status as a round 1 guy.
(I know the header says sliders in the plural, but you try making sense of a couple hours of offensive linemen doing shuttles.)
Feb 12, 2010
Re-Evaluating the 2009 NFL Draft
With the 2010 NFL draft fast approaching, I thought this would be the perfect opportunity to revisit the 2009 draft for the last time and to evaluate, almost 10 months on, how each team did with its first round pick last year.
NFL 2009 Draft: First Round:
1. Detroit Lions: Matthew Stafford, QB: Pre-draft, Stafford was vocal about wanting the challenge (and the cash of course) of being the number one overall pick. Jim Schwartz saw enough to like about the strong-armed Georgia QB to make him his first draft choice as Lions head coach.
In early September, Stafford was named Detroit's starting QB. He had a dismal first game, completing only 16 of 37 passes against the Saints with three interceptions. He improved after that but was still pretty inconsistent throughout the year. Just like Sanchez and Freeman, the other two quarterbacks taken in the first round, he threw a lot of interceptions (20, exactly the same number as Sanchez) and had his up games and his down games.
His rookie season will probably best remembered for the last minute game-winning drive he led against the Browns. I would love to vividly describe it here, but I can't compete with the way NFL Sound FX captured it. Just watch.
Draft 'Do-Over': Sanchez might be a tempter for the Lions, but I think they stick with Stafford. Let's not forget Stafford took over an 0-16 team and also didn't have an elite defense to cover his behind when he made a mistake. I also think that Stafford showed that he is a real fighter this year. Unlike some other past high draft picks who look like they could care less at times (Yes, I'm looking at you JaMarcus), how the Lions were doing and how he was playing clearly mattered to Stafford. That side of him, along with his potential skill set could take him a long way in this league.
2. St. Louis Rams: Jason Smith, OT: Smith had a bit of a nightmare year, which probably started the minute he was drafted by the Rams. It can't be easy when you're expected to come in and immediately become the franchise left tackle of a team that has no quarterback, no real offensive weapons (Steven Jackson aside), and that hasn't had a winning season since 2003.
Smith had a lot of injury problems in 2009: he hurt his knee early in the season and sustained a concussion on November 22 against the Cardinals which kept him out for the rest of the year. All in all, he featured in 7 games, started only five and was mediocre at best.
Draft 'Do-Over': The Rams were probably the team hurt the most by passing on Mark Sanchez. After a season of terrible quarterback play, they're going to have dive into the unknown by drafting a QB in the 2010 draft (possibly Sam Bradford, who has great potential but who, just like Smith, is injury-prone). This time around they avoid that uncertainty by snapping up Sanchez.
3. Kansas City Chiefs: Tyson Jackson, DE: The Chiefs' choice of Jackson at this slot had more to do with the team's needs than pure talent. Many thought Jackson was a reach at third overall, but the Chiefs wanted and needed a defensive end in their new 3-4 scheme.
Through the first seven games of the season, Jackson really struggled, only recording 3 tackles. But the Chiefs stuck with him and he was far more productive down the stretch, accounting 24 tackles in the last nine games. Not the numbers of true defensive difference maker, but still a marked improvement. No sacks on the year for Jackson, but the Chiefs always envisioned him as more of a run stuffer and someone who could tie up blockers.
Looking ahead to next year, the Chiefs now have two LSU D-line projects, Jackson and 2008 first round pick Glenn Dorsey. Both have a long way to go.
Draft 'Do-Over': The Chiefs realize that Jackson was a reach, and ideally trade down if they insist on drafting him. Or they hope he lasts till the second round and with this pick, select either B.J. Raji or Brian Orakpo, two defensive players they could use.
4. Seattle Seahawks: Aaron Curry, OLB: Aaron Curry was considered the closest thing to a surefire success in the 2009 draft, and that's why the Seahawks made him the highest drafted linebacker since LaVar Arrington in 2000. He was handed a starting job immediately, and came out hot. He had 28 tackles, 2 sacks and 2 forced fumbles in his first five games. He then slowed down, recording only 25 tackles and no sacks in his last nine games. Even his coach admitted that Curry hit the rookie wall and was trying too hard to make big plays. His role was reduced as the season progressed and he sat out the Seahawks final two games.
Draft 'Do-Over': The Seahawks and everyone else still expect Curry to become a good linebacker in this league, so there's no guarantee they would want to change their pick. I just wonder if, having watched Matt Hasselbeck's production drop off this year, they might have been tempted to lure Mark Sanchez to the Northwest to prepare him to be the future of their franchise. If they had, he might be reunited with his college coach Pete Carroll right now.
5. New York Jets: Mark Sanchez, QB: The Jets went for broke on draft day trading up with Cleveland to get the quarterback they loved; and thus the “Sanchize” was born. Sanchez had a real roller-coaster season. He came out on fire in his first three games, but then his level of play dropped off, as he began throwing interceptions (he had a three pick day against the Saints, then five and four pick days against the Bills and the Patriots respectively later in the year).
Most of his mid-season struggles were forgotten though, as he led the Jets to victories in five of their last six games, and they scraped into the playoffs. Surrounded by a good team (and great defense in particular), he won his first two playoff games, including a huge upset of the red-hot Chargers, before bowing out to the Colts in the AFC title game (Sanchez's QB rating was 93.3 in that game).
Sanchez had by far the most eventful season of the first round rookies, and will look to build on it next year. He still has a lot of work to do (let's not forget his QB rating in the regular season was only 63.0 and he threw 20 interceptions versus 12 touchdowns), but the Jets will have loved the poise and cool he showed in the postseason.
Draft 'Do-Over': No need for the Jets to rethink their bold draft day move. They got their man the first time around.
6. Cincinnati Bengals: Andre Smith, OT: A lengthy holdout not only failed to bring him the extra dollars he was hoping for, but also caused him to miss almost the entire preseason. To make things worse, only three days after inking his deal, he fractured his left foot setting him back even further. He ended up featuring in 6 games and got credited with a single start.
Draft 'Do-Over': Smith might turn out to be a solid long-term contributor, but the Bengals might go for a Michael Crabtree or Percy Harvin here, given their lack of weapons in the passing game down the stretch.
7. Oakland Raiders: Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR: Al Davis always thinks he knows best, but when it comes to selecting Heyward-Bey 7th overall last year, you would hope by now that he's having a few regrets about going completely against conventional wisdom. Heyward-Bey's contributions in 2009? 9 catches for 124 yards and a touchdown. That's 41 catches and 501 yards less than Michael Crabtree (who missed the first five games of the season with his holdout).
Heyward-Bey finished the year riding the pine for the Raiders all through December and has a long way to go to avoid being another Oakland draft bust.
Draft 'Do-Over': Disregarding Heyward-Bey's raw speed, the Raiders go with Harvin, exactly the kind of versatile weapon the Oakland offense needs.
8. Jacksonville Jaguars: Eugene Monroe, OT: By all accounts, Monroe had a rocky season protecting David Garrard's blind side. He started well, holding Dwight Freeney, Bertrand Berry and Mario Williams 'sackless' in his first three games. Then a bad case of the flu cost him a game, and caused him to lose 14 pounds. In his return, he allowed 3 sacks against the Seahawks and was benched. He split time with Tra Thomas on the left side for the rest of the season.
Nonetheless on February 5th, the Jaguars released Thomas, meaning Monroe will be their undoubted starter at left tackle next season which is a positive for him. Then again, when you give a guy a five-year $35 million contract, you pretty much have to play him for a certain amount of time no matter how poorly he does.
Draft 'Do-Over': With Andre and Jason Smith already off the board, the Jaguars only other viable option at offensive tackle would be Michael Oher. I think they go with him, but whether he could perform as well on the left side as he has on the right side for the Ravens this year is debatable.
9. Green Bay Packers: B.J. Raji, DT: Raji split time at nose tackle with Ryan Pickett in the Packers 3-4 defense. Although he was mostly a substitute, he did take some snaps in all of the season's final 13 games, recording 19 tackles, a sack and 4 tackles for loss. He showed good explosiveness in the middle of line and when he got into the backfield, he made plays.
Now the Packers have a real decision on their hands. With Pickett becoming an unrestricted free agent this offseason, do they want to pay him big free agent bucks (and we're talking no-salary-cap big bucks here), or have they seen enough from Raji to cut ties with Pickett and hand B.J. the keys? That will probably be a better barometer of Raji's rookie year than anything I could say.
Draft 'Do-Over': The Packers don't have a glaring weakness, though their offensive line was a tormented at times (Remember that 4.5 sack day Jared Allen against Green Bay??). I think they take Michael Oher at this spot who could have filled in for them at both left and right tackle this season. Raji wasn't a bad pick, he just filled a less pressing need.
10. San Francisco 49ers: Michael Crabtree, WR: A stupid holdout (yes, he get more money than Heyward-Bey, which was the sticking point all along, but he also signed for an extra year, meaning he's still making a million less every year than his nemesis across the Bay...his agent probably glossed over that minor detail) cost him crucial off-season reps and the first five games of the season.
Of course when he did start taking reps, he was the stud everyone him expected to be and showed that he was indeed the best receiver in the draft. He finished the season with 48 catches for 625 yards and 2 touchdowns, in an offense that struggled passing the football. All the signs point to him becoming a big time receiver at this level, especially if the Niners find a quarterback who can get him the ball.
Draft 'Do-Over': Even with the holdout headache, San Francisco stick with their man. He's going to be a key component of their offense over the next few seasons.
11. Buffalo Bills: Aaron Maybin, DE: Definitely one of the low profile first-rounders, Maybin actually appeared in all 16 games for the Bills this year as they tried to use him as a situational pass-rusher. He finished the year with 18 tackles but no sacks (after getting the fans' hopes up with two in preseason).
Draft 'Do-Over': The Bills, who were basically just after a playmaker on defense, look elsewhere in a “do-over”, probably in the direction of one of the Brians, Orakpo or Cushing.
12. Denver Broncos: Knowshon Moreno, RB: Moreno had two explosive years at Georgia as both a rusher and a receiver out of the backfield leading Josh McDaniels to see him as the perfect versatile weapon for his new offense. However, despite getting lots of touches from the start, Moreno struggled to be as dangerous in the NFL. He carried the ball a lot in 2009, 247 times (10th most in the league), but ended up with an poor 3.8 yard average. He was better in the passing game, making 28 receptions at 7.6 yards a clip. He also was good news in the red zone, accounting for 9 touchdowns (7 rushing, 2 receiving).
Looking forward, McDaniels, if he wants a create a solid running game (which I think he clearly does), needs to use Moreno as part of a stable of backs rather than the main guy. His receiving and red zone skills are valuable, but he didn't really show himself to be an every-down-run-between-the-tackles kind of running back. (And let's be honest fewer and fewer NFL teams are doing that these days anyway.)
Draft 'Do-Over': This is a tough one to change because the Broncos had such a need at the running back going into last year's draft. They stick with Moreno, just, but have a good long look at Cushing, and Orakpo.
13. Washington Redskins: Brian Orakpo, DE: The Redskins got exactly what they wanted out of Orakpo, a big rookie season, after they converted him from defense end to outside linebacker in their 3-4 defense. Orakpo adjusted well to the change, and showed his skills as a pass-rusher, racking up 11 sacks (tied for 7th in the league and more than James Harrison, Julius Peppers and Mario Williams). He also had 37 tackles and a forced fumble: enough to book his trip to the Pro Bowl in Miami.
Draft 'Do-Over': The Redskins have so many problem areas that they could go a number of different directions, but Orakpo is a highly sought after commodity in the NFL: a versatile pass-rusher who can get to the quarterback. He will only become more valuable as the Redskins improve. They stay put.
14. New Orleans Saints: Malcolm Jenkins, CB: Jenkins featured from the very first game for New Orleans coming in as their nickelback while backing up Jabari Greer and Tracy Porter. Got a chance to start when Greer went down with an injury in Week 10, and was decent as a starter without really wowing anyone. His two best games of the season were against Tampa Bay, as he got his first professional pick in the first, and recorded 8 tackles in the second.
Draft 'Do-Over': Hard to pick a major area of need for the eventual Superbowl-winning Saints. They stick with Jenkins who provides them with a solid option at backup cornerback, with the potential to be starter not too far in the future.
15. Houston Texans: Brian Cushing, OLB: Basically looked at home on an NFL field from the very first snap. He started every game for the Texans, finished second on the team in both tackles (87) and sacks (5), and brought a ferociousness and intensity that only a 22 year-old can. Deservedly walked away with the NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Award.
Draft 'Do-Over': The Texans look nowhere else, but then again there's no way Cushing would last this long.
16. San Diego Chargers: Larry English, DE: Featured in 13 games for the Chargers, who converted him to outside linebacker in their 3-4 D. English finished with 23 tackles and 2 sacks for the year. Though he showed some promise rushing the passer, he didn't rack up enough sacks to justify such a high draft pick, and Chargers fans will be concerned that he may not be able to fill Shawne Merriman's shoes should 'Lights Out' be headed out.
Draft 'Do-Over': With the USC connection on top of the 8 more sacks in 2009, the Chargers turn to Clay Matthews.
17. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Josh Freeman, QB: Freeman was brought in as a long-term project by Tampa Bay, but he saw action as early as week 7 against the Patriots (in London of all places) when Raheem Morris had had enough of Josh Johnson's poor play.
He started every game after that and was inconsistent as you could expect a rookie QB to be. He was great against the Falcons and Seahawks, but laid eggs against the Jets (no shocker there) and the Saints.
All in all, Freeman showed lots of potential as a rookie and had a season he can definitely build on. Still has a long way to go though.
Draft 'Do-Over': Falcons stick with Freeman just because quarterback is the biggest of their many areas of need.
18. Denver Broncos: Robert Ayers, DE: Another pass rusher who failed to shine in his rookie year. Only started one game for the Broncos, but featured in 12 more. He ended up with only 13 tackles and not a single sack, though he did score a defensive touchdown when he returned a fumble to pay-dirt against the Steelers.
The most noise he made this season was actually when he took a season of frustration out on Jamaal Charles, dropping him on his head and getting fined $5,000 by the NFL in the process.
Draft 'Do-Over': Denver didn't really need the extra pass rush with Elvis Dumervil having a career year with 17 sacks. With their 3-4 scheme, the Broncos could use an extra linebacker, and both Rey Maualuga and James Laurinaitis fit the bill.
19. Philadelphia Eagles: Jeremy Maclin, WR: Some thought Maclin would go as high as seventh to the Raiders before the draft. So when he was still on the board after the first 18 picks, Andy Reid jumped at the opportunity to trade up to get him, and he wasn't disappointed. After a big 142 yard day against Tampa Bay in week 5, he became a solid option for Donovan McNabb, good for 4 to 5 receptions per game. Another good sign: his biggest game of the year came in the playoffs against the Cowboys when he hauled in 7 passes for 146 yards, in the process becoming the youngest player to score a touchdown in NFL history.
He still needs to work on getting open and being a bigger presence on offense, but he should get plenty of chances to shine opposite the dangerous DeSean Jackson.
Draft 'Do-Over': No slight to Maclin, but given the mess the Eagles had to deal with at linebacker (and particularly middle linebacker this year) they go with Rey Maualuga, a hitter who fits their aggressive defensive style, this time around.
20. Detroit Lions: Brandon Pettigrew, TE: Pettigrew had a solid first year for Detroit, catching 30 balls and averaging 34 receiving yards a game (which is a little worse than middle of the pack for tight ends). He also caught the touchdown pass on THAT Matthew Stafford play. However, a torn ACL on Thanksgiving cut his season short. Still has a big role to play in the Lions' revival.
Draft 'Do-Over': Pettigrew was the top rated tight end in the draft, and the Lions desperately wanted to give Matthew Stafford some more weapons in the passing game. This time around, they don't let Harvin slip right under their nose.
21. Cleveland Browns: Alex Mack, C: The Browns raised a few eyebrows by picking Mack ahead of Max Unger and Eric Wood, both of whom were considered better prospects at center by some. Mack proved Cleveland right by starting every game at center (both Wood and Unger slid over to right guard on their teams), and steadily improving as the year went on. In Cleveland's final three games, Mack, along with the rest of the offensive line, paved the way for three straight 100+ rushing games for running back Jerome Harrison.
Draft 'Do-Over': Cleveland's late season revival started with improvement of both their offensive and defensive lines. Mack has the potential to be the leader of their O-line for years to come, and is exactly the type of player the Browns needed.
22. Minnesota Vikings: Percy Harvin, WR: Rookie of the Year: You can't blame teams from being a little unsure about Harvin before the draft. Anyone who tests positive for marijuana at the combine, the most important weekend for hopeful draftees, deserves to have their judgment questioned. But the Vikings looked beyond that to how Harvin had made the Florida offense tick in his college playing days and used their first round pick on him.
It was a gamble that paid off. Harvin caught his first touchdown pass in the first game of season. Two weeks later, he returned his first kickoff for a TD against the 49ers. For much of the season, he was a genuine triple threat, as a receiver, returner, and even a rusher (he averaged 9 yards per run). He earned the trust of Brett Favre, becoming his 'go-to' guy on third down.
A couple of health issues, first a virus then a string of unexplained migraines, were the only blots on his rookie season. Vikings fans will just be hoping that those migraines don't continue to haunt him in the future.
Draft 'Do-Over': Minnesota still loves Harvin, a great addition to a team with very few weaknesses.
23. Baltimore Ravens: Michael Oher, OT: Oher grabbed far more headlines for the blockbuster movie based on his life, The Blind Side, than he did for his play this season. And that's too bad, because he had a very good first year. Moved to right tackle during preseason, he was a starter from day 1. He consistently opened holes in the run game for Ray Rice and was solid in pass protection. He fully deserved his Pro Bowl selection. Barring injury, the Ravens have found themselves a ten-year starter.
Draft 'Do-Over': Are you kidding me? The kid's a movie star.
24. Atlanta Falcons: Peria Jerry, DT: One of the biggest questions surrounding Jerry leading up to the draft was his durability, due to the numerous injuries he had suffered during his playing days at Ole Miss. Well, he tore up his knee in his first start of the season against Carolina, which caused him to miss the remainder of the year. If he can stay healthy, he has the potential to develop into a good defensive disruptor, but at this stage it's a big if.
Draft 'Do-Over': Could go with Ron Brace, the defensive tackle who went to the Patriots in the second round, but then again Brace didn't make much of an impact as a rookie either. Maybe rookie Pro Bowl CB Jairus Byrd would be a good addition to their secondary.
25. Miami Dolphins: Vontae Davis, CB: Davis certainly has had his moments this season. He featured in 15 games, starting 9. He picked up 45 tackles, 4 interceptions (including two of Tom Brady) and 11 defended passes. Though he did get beat on some big plays, he also showed a confidence and nastiness that the Dolphins liked. You get the feeling that with a good off-season, Davis is going to be a lot better next year.
Draft 'Do-Over': The concern about Davis going into the draft was his attitude and his inability to be coached. There were no whispers of a poor attitude on Vontae's part during his rookie year which makes me think Miami stick with what they got.
26. Green Bay Packers: Clay Matthews, OLB: A serious contender for defensive rookie of the year, Matthews established himself as a starter early on in the season and showed a knack for making big plays. Despite his lack of size, he proved very adept at rushing the passer, picking up 10 sacks on the year. Living proof that you have to respect NFL bloodlines (both his dad and uncle were longtime NFL starters)
Draft 'Do-Over': A great pickup for Green Bay's young defense, the Packers stay put.
27. Indianapolis Colts: Donald Brown, RB: Brown struggled as a rookie picking up only 281 rushing yards (or one good Jerome Harrison game) on the season, averaging 3.6 yards a carry. Cut him a bit of slack because the Colts couldn't establish the run for any of its backs this season. But still, those aren't the numbers you expect out of a first round draft pick. One bright spot for Brown was his ability to be a threat in the receiving game, where he caught 11 passes for 169 yards.
Draft 'Do-Over': Although Brown is a better fit for their style of offense, Indy goes for Shonn Greene this time around because he gives them a tough inside run game.
28. Buffalo Bills: Eric Wood, C: Wood slid over to right guard and joined a completely re-tooled offensive line in Buffalo, which along with the rest of the Bills team struggled in 2009. Wood got injured in Week 11 when he suffered a compound fracture to his lower leg. Up until that point the Bills O-line had allowed 27 sacks of the quarterback (both Trent Edwards and Ryan Fitzpatrick). Lots of work to do this offseason.
Draft 'Do-Over': The Bills might go with an other option for their O-line, like Phil Loadholt for example, who was solid at right tackle for the Vikings this season.
29. New York Giants: Hakeem Nicks, WR: Nicks proved to be a good downfield and redzone threat (he was tied with Harvin for second in TD receptions for a rookie) for New York with great size, big hands, and a bit of a burst. He averaged an impressive 16.8 yards a catch but was also inconsistent. His rookie season was perfectly captured in this two play sequence against the Eagles. He should see plenty of single coverage next season opposite the dangerous Steve Smith. Might give him the opportunity to shine.
Draft “Do-Over”: Some thought Nicks was a bit of a reach this high in the draft, but the Giants will be happy with what he's shown so far. However, their defense (especially their secondary) was plain awful this year. They go for Jairus Byrd in the “do-over”.
30. Tennessee Titans: Kenny Britt, WR: Britt actually had a remarkably similar season to the man picked just ahead of him. He had 43 catches to Nicks' 47, 701 receiving yards to 790, and a 16.7 average to 16.8. Though he caught three less touchdown passes, he did have one of the most dramatic catches of the year, a game winner as time expired against the Cardinals.
Draft “Do-Over”: The Titans definitely needed help at wide receiver and I think they stick with Britt, unless they believe Austin Collie's rookie success had less to do with Peyton Manning and the Colts system than I do.
31. Arizona Cardinals: Chris “Beanie” Wells, RB: Beanie had a decent enough rookie year finishing with 793 rushing yards at 4.5 yards a clip and 7 touchdowns. He was even a little better in the postseason upping his average to 5.2 yards a carry. However, the big concern about Wells is his fumbling. He fumbled 4 times during the regular season, tied for fifth most by a running back in the NFL.
2010 will probably be more important than 2009 for Wells. Now that Kurt Warner has retired, the Cardinals will depend on him and Tim Hightower (who also had fumbling issues in 2009) to be a much bigger part of the offense with inexperienced Matt Leinart taking over at quarterback.
Draft “Do-Over”: Wells was an important pick-up for the Cardinals and definitely still makes sense for them long-term. Still after watching Arizona's defense get torched in two straight playoff game, you wonder if they might use this pick on the other side of the ball.
32. Pittsburgh Steelers: Evander “Ziggy” Hood, DT: A traditional 4-3 DT in college, Hood moved to defensive end in the Steelers 3-4. Despite a season-ending injury to the player ahead of him, Aaron Smith, Hood did not see significant playing time his rookie year, featuring in only five Steelers games. He finished with 5 tackles and a sack of Joe Flacco. Always considered a bit of a project due to some technical weaknesses, the Steelers shouldn't be too disappointed by his lack of production in his rookie year.
Draft 'Do-Over': Steelers probably stick with Hood because they can afford to develop him, though the weakness of their offensive line might have been addressed with Eben Britton or a Sebastian Vollmer.
Late-Round Sleepers who should have gone higher:
-Jairus Byrd, FS: Second Round: Buffalo Bills: The cornerback turned safety out of Oregon finished tied for first in the NFL in interceptions with 9 picks (five more than any other rookie), and was one of only 6 rookies to make the Pro Bowl.
-Sebastian Vollmer, OT: Second Round: New England Patriots: The huge German out of Houston participated in 14 Patriots games, starting 8 times. Filled in at both left tackle for Matt Light and right tackle for Nick Kaczur when they were injured. Was thrust into the national limelight when he shut down Dwight Freeney during New England's game against the Colts on Sunday Night Football in Week 10.
-Shonn Greene, RB: Third Round: New York Jets: Averaged 5 yards a carry running behind the Jets powerful offensive line. Had two consecutive 100 yard+ playoff against the Bengals and Chargers.
-Louis Vasquez, OG: Third Round: San Diego Chargers: Started 11 games at right guard for the high-flying Chargers after beating out veteran Kynan Forney for the job. Was so good that Forney was later released. Who says spread offenses don't produce good linemen? (Vasquez is out of Texas Tech)
-Jerraud Powers, CB: Third Round: Indianapolis Colts: Got plenty of chances to play when the Colts secondary was hit with multiple injuries. Finished the season with 56 tackles, 1 interception, and a forced fumble. Picked off another pass in the playoffs and started in the Superbowl. Not bad for a third-round rookie.
-Austin Collie, WR: Fourth Round: Indianapolis Colts: His production was definitely inflated by the Colts offensive system and playing with Peyton Manning, but don't take too much away from this BYU product. Was consistently reliable, showed great hands, and ran great routes. Just the type of polished receiver that NFL teams overlook for size or raw ability.
-Johnny Knox, WR: Fifth Round: Chicago Bears: An explosive, undersized small-school product, Knox was an instant hit for the Bears: his first NFL reception was good for 68 yards. Finished up with 527 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns. Was also a big threat on kickoff returns, averaging 29 yards a return and taking one back to the house.
-Julian Edelman, WR: Seventh Round: New England Patriots: Wes Welker version 2.0? Played a part-time role for New England for most of the season but displayed a lot of similarities to Welker. Is small but quick, has a good burst, nice moves and is very tough.
NFL 2009 Draft: First Round:
1. Detroit Lions: Matthew Stafford, QB: Pre-draft, Stafford was vocal about wanting the challenge (and the cash of course) of being the number one overall pick. Jim Schwartz saw enough to like about the strong-armed Georgia QB to make him his first draft choice as Lions head coach.
In early September, Stafford was named Detroit's starting QB. He had a dismal first game, completing only 16 of 37 passes against the Saints with three interceptions. He improved after that but was still pretty inconsistent throughout the year. Just like Sanchez and Freeman, the other two quarterbacks taken in the first round, he threw a lot of interceptions (20, exactly the same number as Sanchez) and had his up games and his down games.
His rookie season will probably best remembered for the last minute game-winning drive he led against the Browns. I would love to vividly describe it here, but I can't compete with the way NFL Sound FX captured it. Just watch.
Draft 'Do-Over': Sanchez might be a tempter for the Lions, but I think they stick with Stafford. Let's not forget Stafford took over an 0-16 team and also didn't have an elite defense to cover his behind when he made a mistake. I also think that Stafford showed that he is a real fighter this year. Unlike some other past high draft picks who look like they could care less at times (Yes, I'm looking at you JaMarcus), how the Lions were doing and how he was playing clearly mattered to Stafford. That side of him, along with his potential skill set could take him a long way in this league.
2. St. Louis Rams: Jason Smith, OT: Smith had a bit of a nightmare year, which probably started the minute he was drafted by the Rams. It can't be easy when you're expected to come in and immediately become the franchise left tackle of a team that has no quarterback, no real offensive weapons (Steven Jackson aside), and that hasn't had a winning season since 2003.
Smith had a lot of injury problems in 2009: he hurt his knee early in the season and sustained a concussion on November 22 against the Cardinals which kept him out for the rest of the year. All in all, he featured in 7 games, started only five and was mediocre at best.
Draft 'Do-Over': The Rams were probably the team hurt the most by passing on Mark Sanchez. After a season of terrible quarterback play, they're going to have dive into the unknown by drafting a QB in the 2010 draft (possibly Sam Bradford, who has great potential but who, just like Smith, is injury-prone). This time around they avoid that uncertainty by snapping up Sanchez.
3. Kansas City Chiefs: Tyson Jackson, DE: The Chiefs' choice of Jackson at this slot had more to do with the team's needs than pure talent. Many thought Jackson was a reach at third overall, but the Chiefs wanted and needed a defensive end in their new 3-4 scheme.
Through the first seven games of the season, Jackson really struggled, only recording 3 tackles. But the Chiefs stuck with him and he was far more productive down the stretch, accounting 24 tackles in the last nine games. Not the numbers of true defensive difference maker, but still a marked improvement. No sacks on the year for Jackson, but the Chiefs always envisioned him as more of a run stuffer and someone who could tie up blockers.
Looking ahead to next year, the Chiefs now have two LSU D-line projects, Jackson and 2008 first round pick Glenn Dorsey. Both have a long way to go.
Draft 'Do-Over': The Chiefs realize that Jackson was a reach, and ideally trade down if they insist on drafting him. Or they hope he lasts till the second round and with this pick, select either B.J. Raji or Brian Orakpo, two defensive players they could use.
4. Seattle Seahawks: Aaron Curry, OLB: Aaron Curry was considered the closest thing to a surefire success in the 2009 draft, and that's why the Seahawks made him the highest drafted linebacker since LaVar Arrington in 2000. He was handed a starting job immediately, and came out hot. He had 28 tackles, 2 sacks and 2 forced fumbles in his first five games. He then slowed down, recording only 25 tackles and no sacks in his last nine games. Even his coach admitted that Curry hit the rookie wall and was trying too hard to make big plays. His role was reduced as the season progressed and he sat out the Seahawks final two games.
Draft 'Do-Over': The Seahawks and everyone else still expect Curry to become a good linebacker in this league, so there's no guarantee they would want to change their pick. I just wonder if, having watched Matt Hasselbeck's production drop off this year, they might have been tempted to lure Mark Sanchez to the Northwest to prepare him to be the future of their franchise. If they had, he might be reunited with his college coach Pete Carroll right now.
5. New York Jets: Mark Sanchez, QB: The Jets went for broke on draft day trading up with Cleveland to get the quarterback they loved; and thus the “Sanchize” was born. Sanchez had a real roller-coaster season. He came out on fire in his first three games, but then his level of play dropped off, as he began throwing interceptions (he had a three pick day against the Saints, then five and four pick days against the Bills and the Patriots respectively later in the year).
Most of his mid-season struggles were forgotten though, as he led the Jets to victories in five of their last six games, and they scraped into the playoffs. Surrounded by a good team (and great defense in particular), he won his first two playoff games, including a huge upset of the red-hot Chargers, before bowing out to the Colts in the AFC title game (Sanchez's QB rating was 93.3 in that game).
Sanchez had by far the most eventful season of the first round rookies, and will look to build on it next year. He still has a lot of work to do (let's not forget his QB rating in the regular season was only 63.0 and he threw 20 interceptions versus 12 touchdowns), but the Jets will have loved the poise and cool he showed in the postseason.
Draft 'Do-Over': No need for the Jets to rethink their bold draft day move. They got their man the first time around.
6. Cincinnati Bengals: Andre Smith, OT: A lengthy holdout not only failed to bring him the extra dollars he was hoping for, but also caused him to miss almost the entire preseason. To make things worse, only three days after inking his deal, he fractured his left foot setting him back even further. He ended up featuring in 6 games and got credited with a single start.
Draft 'Do-Over': Smith might turn out to be a solid long-term contributor, but the Bengals might go for a Michael Crabtree or Percy Harvin here, given their lack of weapons in the passing game down the stretch.
7. Oakland Raiders: Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR: Al Davis always thinks he knows best, but when it comes to selecting Heyward-Bey 7th overall last year, you would hope by now that he's having a few regrets about going completely against conventional wisdom. Heyward-Bey's contributions in 2009? 9 catches for 124 yards and a touchdown. That's 41 catches and 501 yards less than Michael Crabtree (who missed the first five games of the season with his holdout).
Heyward-Bey finished the year riding the pine for the Raiders all through December and has a long way to go to avoid being another Oakland draft bust.
Draft 'Do-Over': Disregarding Heyward-Bey's raw speed, the Raiders go with Harvin, exactly the kind of versatile weapon the Oakland offense needs.
8. Jacksonville Jaguars: Eugene Monroe, OT: By all accounts, Monroe had a rocky season protecting David Garrard's blind side. He started well, holding Dwight Freeney, Bertrand Berry and Mario Williams 'sackless' in his first three games. Then a bad case of the flu cost him a game, and caused him to lose 14 pounds. In his return, he allowed 3 sacks against the Seahawks and was benched. He split time with Tra Thomas on the left side for the rest of the season.
Nonetheless on February 5th, the Jaguars released Thomas, meaning Monroe will be their undoubted starter at left tackle next season which is a positive for him. Then again, when you give a guy a five-year $35 million contract, you pretty much have to play him for a certain amount of time no matter how poorly he does.
Draft 'Do-Over': With Andre and Jason Smith already off the board, the Jaguars only other viable option at offensive tackle would be Michael Oher. I think they go with him, but whether he could perform as well on the left side as he has on the right side for the Ravens this year is debatable.
9. Green Bay Packers: B.J. Raji, DT: Raji split time at nose tackle with Ryan Pickett in the Packers 3-4 defense. Although he was mostly a substitute, he did take some snaps in all of the season's final 13 games, recording 19 tackles, a sack and 4 tackles for loss. He showed good explosiveness in the middle of line and when he got into the backfield, he made plays.
Now the Packers have a real decision on their hands. With Pickett becoming an unrestricted free agent this offseason, do they want to pay him big free agent bucks (and we're talking no-salary-cap big bucks here), or have they seen enough from Raji to cut ties with Pickett and hand B.J. the keys? That will probably be a better barometer of Raji's rookie year than anything I could say.
Draft 'Do-Over': The Packers don't have a glaring weakness, though their offensive line was a tormented at times (Remember that 4.5 sack day Jared Allen against Green Bay??). I think they take Michael Oher at this spot who could have filled in for them at both left and right tackle this season. Raji wasn't a bad pick, he just filled a less pressing need.
10. San Francisco 49ers: Michael Crabtree, WR: A stupid holdout (yes, he get more money than Heyward-Bey, which was the sticking point all along, but he also signed for an extra year, meaning he's still making a million less every year than his nemesis across the Bay...his agent probably glossed over that minor detail) cost him crucial off-season reps and the first five games of the season.
Of course when he did start taking reps, he was the stud everyone him expected to be and showed that he was indeed the best receiver in the draft. He finished the season with 48 catches for 625 yards and 2 touchdowns, in an offense that struggled passing the football. All the signs point to him becoming a big time receiver at this level, especially if the Niners find a quarterback who can get him the ball.
Draft 'Do-Over': Even with the holdout headache, San Francisco stick with their man. He's going to be a key component of their offense over the next few seasons.
11. Buffalo Bills: Aaron Maybin, DE: Definitely one of the low profile first-rounders, Maybin actually appeared in all 16 games for the Bills this year as they tried to use him as a situational pass-rusher. He finished the year with 18 tackles but no sacks (after getting the fans' hopes up with two in preseason).
Draft 'Do-Over': The Bills, who were basically just after a playmaker on defense, look elsewhere in a “do-over”, probably in the direction of one of the Brians, Orakpo or Cushing.
12. Denver Broncos: Knowshon Moreno, RB: Moreno had two explosive years at Georgia as both a rusher and a receiver out of the backfield leading Josh McDaniels to see him as the perfect versatile weapon for his new offense. However, despite getting lots of touches from the start, Moreno struggled to be as dangerous in the NFL. He carried the ball a lot in 2009, 247 times (10th most in the league), but ended up with an poor 3.8 yard average. He was better in the passing game, making 28 receptions at 7.6 yards a clip. He also was good news in the red zone, accounting for 9 touchdowns (7 rushing, 2 receiving).
Looking forward, McDaniels, if he wants a create a solid running game (which I think he clearly does), needs to use Moreno as part of a stable of backs rather than the main guy. His receiving and red zone skills are valuable, but he didn't really show himself to be an every-down-run-between-the-tackles kind of running back. (And let's be honest fewer and fewer NFL teams are doing that these days anyway.)
Draft 'Do-Over': This is a tough one to change because the Broncos had such a need at the running back going into last year's draft. They stick with Moreno, just, but have a good long look at Cushing, and Orakpo.
13. Washington Redskins: Brian Orakpo, DE: The Redskins got exactly what they wanted out of Orakpo, a big rookie season, after they converted him from defense end to outside linebacker in their 3-4 defense. Orakpo adjusted well to the change, and showed his skills as a pass-rusher, racking up 11 sacks (tied for 7th in the league and more than James Harrison, Julius Peppers and Mario Williams). He also had 37 tackles and a forced fumble: enough to book his trip to the Pro Bowl in Miami.
Draft 'Do-Over': The Redskins have so many problem areas that they could go a number of different directions, but Orakpo is a highly sought after commodity in the NFL: a versatile pass-rusher who can get to the quarterback. He will only become more valuable as the Redskins improve. They stay put.
14. New Orleans Saints: Malcolm Jenkins, CB: Jenkins featured from the very first game for New Orleans coming in as their nickelback while backing up Jabari Greer and Tracy Porter. Got a chance to start when Greer went down with an injury in Week 10, and was decent as a starter without really wowing anyone. His two best games of the season were against Tampa Bay, as he got his first professional pick in the first, and recorded 8 tackles in the second.
Draft 'Do-Over': Hard to pick a major area of need for the eventual Superbowl-winning Saints. They stick with Jenkins who provides them with a solid option at backup cornerback, with the potential to be starter not too far in the future.
15. Houston Texans: Brian Cushing, OLB: Basically looked at home on an NFL field from the very first snap. He started every game for the Texans, finished second on the team in both tackles (87) and sacks (5), and brought a ferociousness and intensity that only a 22 year-old can. Deservedly walked away with the NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Award.
Draft 'Do-Over': The Texans look nowhere else, but then again there's no way Cushing would last this long.
16. San Diego Chargers: Larry English, DE: Featured in 13 games for the Chargers, who converted him to outside linebacker in their 3-4 D. English finished with 23 tackles and 2 sacks for the year. Though he showed some promise rushing the passer, he didn't rack up enough sacks to justify such a high draft pick, and Chargers fans will be concerned that he may not be able to fill Shawne Merriman's shoes should 'Lights Out' be headed out.
Draft 'Do-Over': With the USC connection on top of the 8 more sacks in 2009, the Chargers turn to Clay Matthews.
17. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Josh Freeman, QB: Freeman was brought in as a long-term project by Tampa Bay, but he saw action as early as week 7 against the Patriots (in London of all places) when Raheem Morris had had enough of Josh Johnson's poor play.
He started every game after that and was inconsistent as you could expect a rookie QB to be. He was great against the Falcons and Seahawks, but laid eggs against the Jets (no shocker there) and the Saints.
All in all, Freeman showed lots of potential as a rookie and had a season he can definitely build on. Still has a long way to go though.
Draft 'Do-Over': Falcons stick with Freeman just because quarterback is the biggest of their many areas of need.
18. Denver Broncos: Robert Ayers, DE: Another pass rusher who failed to shine in his rookie year. Only started one game for the Broncos, but featured in 12 more. He ended up with only 13 tackles and not a single sack, though he did score a defensive touchdown when he returned a fumble to pay-dirt against the Steelers.
The most noise he made this season was actually when he took a season of frustration out on Jamaal Charles, dropping him on his head and getting fined $5,000 by the NFL in the process.
Draft 'Do-Over': Denver didn't really need the extra pass rush with Elvis Dumervil having a career year with 17 sacks. With their 3-4 scheme, the Broncos could use an extra linebacker, and both Rey Maualuga and James Laurinaitis fit the bill.
19. Philadelphia Eagles: Jeremy Maclin, WR: Some thought Maclin would go as high as seventh to the Raiders before the draft. So when he was still on the board after the first 18 picks, Andy Reid jumped at the opportunity to trade up to get him, and he wasn't disappointed. After a big 142 yard day against Tampa Bay in week 5, he became a solid option for Donovan McNabb, good for 4 to 5 receptions per game. Another good sign: his biggest game of the year came in the playoffs against the Cowboys when he hauled in 7 passes for 146 yards, in the process becoming the youngest player to score a touchdown in NFL history.
He still needs to work on getting open and being a bigger presence on offense, but he should get plenty of chances to shine opposite the dangerous DeSean Jackson.
Draft 'Do-Over': No slight to Maclin, but given the mess the Eagles had to deal with at linebacker (and particularly middle linebacker this year) they go with Rey Maualuga, a hitter who fits their aggressive defensive style, this time around.
20. Detroit Lions: Brandon Pettigrew, TE: Pettigrew had a solid first year for Detroit, catching 30 balls and averaging 34 receiving yards a game (which is a little worse than middle of the pack for tight ends). He also caught the touchdown pass on THAT Matthew Stafford play. However, a torn ACL on Thanksgiving cut his season short. Still has a big role to play in the Lions' revival.
Draft 'Do-Over': Pettigrew was the top rated tight end in the draft, and the Lions desperately wanted to give Matthew Stafford some more weapons in the passing game. This time around, they don't let Harvin slip right under their nose.
21. Cleveland Browns: Alex Mack, C: The Browns raised a few eyebrows by picking Mack ahead of Max Unger and Eric Wood, both of whom were considered better prospects at center by some. Mack proved Cleveland right by starting every game at center (both Wood and Unger slid over to right guard on their teams), and steadily improving as the year went on. In Cleveland's final three games, Mack, along with the rest of the offensive line, paved the way for three straight 100+ rushing games for running back Jerome Harrison.
Draft 'Do-Over': Cleveland's late season revival started with improvement of both their offensive and defensive lines. Mack has the potential to be the leader of their O-line for years to come, and is exactly the type of player the Browns needed.
22. Minnesota Vikings: Percy Harvin, WR: Rookie of the Year: You can't blame teams from being a little unsure about Harvin before the draft. Anyone who tests positive for marijuana at the combine, the most important weekend for hopeful draftees, deserves to have their judgment questioned. But the Vikings looked beyond that to how Harvin had made the Florida offense tick in his college playing days and used their first round pick on him.
It was a gamble that paid off. Harvin caught his first touchdown pass in the first game of season. Two weeks later, he returned his first kickoff for a TD against the 49ers. For much of the season, he was a genuine triple threat, as a receiver, returner, and even a rusher (he averaged 9 yards per run). He earned the trust of Brett Favre, becoming his 'go-to' guy on third down.
A couple of health issues, first a virus then a string of unexplained migraines, were the only blots on his rookie season. Vikings fans will just be hoping that those migraines don't continue to haunt him in the future.
Draft 'Do-Over': Minnesota still loves Harvin, a great addition to a team with very few weaknesses.
23. Baltimore Ravens: Michael Oher, OT: Oher grabbed far more headlines for the blockbuster movie based on his life, The Blind Side, than he did for his play this season. And that's too bad, because he had a very good first year. Moved to right tackle during preseason, he was a starter from day 1. He consistently opened holes in the run game for Ray Rice and was solid in pass protection. He fully deserved his Pro Bowl selection. Barring injury, the Ravens have found themselves a ten-year starter.
Draft 'Do-Over': Are you kidding me? The kid's a movie star.
24. Atlanta Falcons: Peria Jerry, DT: One of the biggest questions surrounding Jerry leading up to the draft was his durability, due to the numerous injuries he had suffered during his playing days at Ole Miss. Well, he tore up his knee in his first start of the season against Carolina, which caused him to miss the remainder of the year. If he can stay healthy, he has the potential to develop into a good defensive disruptor, but at this stage it's a big if.
Draft 'Do-Over': Could go with Ron Brace, the defensive tackle who went to the Patriots in the second round, but then again Brace didn't make much of an impact as a rookie either. Maybe rookie Pro Bowl CB Jairus Byrd would be a good addition to their secondary.
25. Miami Dolphins: Vontae Davis, CB: Davis certainly has had his moments this season. He featured in 15 games, starting 9. He picked up 45 tackles, 4 interceptions (including two of Tom Brady) and 11 defended passes. Though he did get beat on some big plays, he also showed a confidence and nastiness that the Dolphins liked. You get the feeling that with a good off-season, Davis is going to be a lot better next year.
Draft 'Do-Over': The concern about Davis going into the draft was his attitude and his inability to be coached. There were no whispers of a poor attitude on Vontae's part during his rookie year which makes me think Miami stick with what they got.
26. Green Bay Packers: Clay Matthews, OLB: A serious contender for defensive rookie of the year, Matthews established himself as a starter early on in the season and showed a knack for making big plays. Despite his lack of size, he proved very adept at rushing the passer, picking up 10 sacks on the year. Living proof that you have to respect NFL bloodlines (both his dad and uncle were longtime NFL starters)
Draft 'Do-Over': A great pickup for Green Bay's young defense, the Packers stay put.
27. Indianapolis Colts: Donald Brown, RB: Brown struggled as a rookie picking up only 281 rushing yards (or one good Jerome Harrison game) on the season, averaging 3.6 yards a carry. Cut him a bit of slack because the Colts couldn't establish the run for any of its backs this season. But still, those aren't the numbers you expect out of a first round draft pick. One bright spot for Brown was his ability to be a threat in the receiving game, where he caught 11 passes for 169 yards.
Draft 'Do-Over': Although Brown is a better fit for their style of offense, Indy goes for Shonn Greene this time around because he gives them a tough inside run game.
28. Buffalo Bills: Eric Wood, C: Wood slid over to right guard and joined a completely re-tooled offensive line in Buffalo, which along with the rest of the Bills team struggled in 2009. Wood got injured in Week 11 when he suffered a compound fracture to his lower leg. Up until that point the Bills O-line had allowed 27 sacks of the quarterback (both Trent Edwards and Ryan Fitzpatrick). Lots of work to do this offseason.
Draft 'Do-Over': The Bills might go with an other option for their O-line, like Phil Loadholt for example, who was solid at right tackle for the Vikings this season.
29. New York Giants: Hakeem Nicks, WR: Nicks proved to be a good downfield and redzone threat (he was tied with Harvin for second in TD receptions for a rookie) for New York with great size, big hands, and a bit of a burst. He averaged an impressive 16.8 yards a catch but was also inconsistent. His rookie season was perfectly captured in this two play sequence against the Eagles. He should see plenty of single coverage next season opposite the dangerous Steve Smith. Might give him the opportunity to shine.
Draft “Do-Over”: Some thought Nicks was a bit of a reach this high in the draft, but the Giants will be happy with what he's shown so far. However, their defense (especially their secondary) was plain awful this year. They go for Jairus Byrd in the “do-over”.
30. Tennessee Titans: Kenny Britt, WR: Britt actually had a remarkably similar season to the man picked just ahead of him. He had 43 catches to Nicks' 47, 701 receiving yards to 790, and a 16.7 average to 16.8. Though he caught three less touchdown passes, he did have one of the most dramatic catches of the year, a game winner as time expired against the Cardinals.
Draft “Do-Over”: The Titans definitely needed help at wide receiver and I think they stick with Britt, unless they believe Austin Collie's rookie success had less to do with Peyton Manning and the Colts system than I do.
31. Arizona Cardinals: Chris “Beanie” Wells, RB: Beanie had a decent enough rookie year finishing with 793 rushing yards at 4.5 yards a clip and 7 touchdowns. He was even a little better in the postseason upping his average to 5.2 yards a carry. However, the big concern about Wells is his fumbling. He fumbled 4 times during the regular season, tied for fifth most by a running back in the NFL.
2010 will probably be more important than 2009 for Wells. Now that Kurt Warner has retired, the Cardinals will depend on him and Tim Hightower (who also had fumbling issues in 2009) to be a much bigger part of the offense with inexperienced Matt Leinart taking over at quarterback.
Draft “Do-Over”: Wells was an important pick-up for the Cardinals and definitely still makes sense for them long-term. Still after watching Arizona's defense get torched in two straight playoff game, you wonder if they might use this pick on the other side of the ball.
32. Pittsburgh Steelers: Evander “Ziggy” Hood, DT: A traditional 4-3 DT in college, Hood moved to defensive end in the Steelers 3-4. Despite a season-ending injury to the player ahead of him, Aaron Smith, Hood did not see significant playing time his rookie year, featuring in only five Steelers games. He finished with 5 tackles and a sack of Joe Flacco. Always considered a bit of a project due to some technical weaknesses, the Steelers shouldn't be too disappointed by his lack of production in his rookie year.
Draft 'Do-Over': Steelers probably stick with Hood because they can afford to develop him, though the weakness of their offensive line might have been addressed with Eben Britton or a Sebastian Vollmer.
Late-Round Sleepers who should have gone higher:
-Jairus Byrd, FS: Second Round: Buffalo Bills: The cornerback turned safety out of Oregon finished tied for first in the NFL in interceptions with 9 picks (five more than any other rookie), and was one of only 6 rookies to make the Pro Bowl.
-Sebastian Vollmer, OT: Second Round: New England Patriots: The huge German out of Houston participated in 14 Patriots games, starting 8 times. Filled in at both left tackle for Matt Light and right tackle for Nick Kaczur when they were injured. Was thrust into the national limelight when he shut down Dwight Freeney during New England's game against the Colts on Sunday Night Football in Week 10.
-Shonn Greene, RB: Third Round: New York Jets: Averaged 5 yards a carry running behind the Jets powerful offensive line. Had two consecutive 100 yard+ playoff against the Bengals and Chargers.
-Louis Vasquez, OG: Third Round: San Diego Chargers: Started 11 games at right guard for the high-flying Chargers after beating out veteran Kynan Forney for the job. Was so good that Forney was later released. Who says spread offenses don't produce good linemen? (Vasquez is out of Texas Tech)
-Jerraud Powers, CB: Third Round: Indianapolis Colts: Got plenty of chances to play when the Colts secondary was hit with multiple injuries. Finished the season with 56 tackles, 1 interception, and a forced fumble. Picked off another pass in the playoffs and started in the Superbowl. Not bad for a third-round rookie.
-Austin Collie, WR: Fourth Round: Indianapolis Colts: His production was definitely inflated by the Colts offensive system and playing with Peyton Manning, but don't take too much away from this BYU product. Was consistently reliable, showed great hands, and ran great routes. Just the type of polished receiver that NFL teams overlook for size or raw ability.
-Johnny Knox, WR: Fifth Round: Chicago Bears: An explosive, undersized small-school product, Knox was an instant hit for the Bears: his first NFL reception was good for 68 yards. Finished up with 527 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns. Was also a big threat on kickoff returns, averaging 29 yards a return and taking one back to the house.
-Julian Edelman, WR: Seventh Round: New England Patriots: Wes Welker version 2.0? Played a part-time role for New England for most of the season but displayed a lot of similarities to Welker. Is small but quick, has a good burst, nice moves and is very tough.
Feb 7, 2010
NFL Superbowl XLIV
-Gotta love the story of these Saints. Four and half years have past since Hurricane Katrina struck the Louisiana coast and the Superdome became a safe haven for the storm's refugees, but you got the feeling that most of America was embracing the New Orleans story and pulling for the Saints on Sunday.
The Saints had to do it the hard way, coming back from 10-0 down to beat the Colts. They relied on some patient and scrappy D, some explosive offense at times, and an incredibly timely turnover.
Credit Drew Brees who snapped back from a slow start to play a mistake free game (He completed 29 of 32 passes after the Saints first two possessions), and the New Orleans D which didn't stop blitzing Peyton Manning all night, never allowing him to settle into a rhythm.
Oh, and don't forget Tracy Porter, the cornerback who was born in Louisiana, who has been a Saints fan his whole life, and who gave himself a ridiculous hairdo just because he was so excited to be playing in the Superbowl with his favorite team.
Porter read exactly what Manning and receiver Reggie Wayne were trying to do as the Colts drove to tie the game late in the fourth quarter. He jumped the route, got in front of Wayne, picked off Manning's pass and took it back 74 yards to the house. Game over. Go wild Bourbon Street.
-The game might not have been the most entertaining or explosive (only 5 offensive plays over 20 yards all night), but it was a victory for gutsy coaching. Sean Payton and Jim Caldwell's coaching philosophy could not be more different, and Payton's risky style was the clear winner on the day. He may have failed on 4th-and-goal from the one yard line in the first half, but his decision to go for the onside kick at the start of the second half was inspired and a real turning point in the game.
On the other side of the ball, whereas the Saints kept coming with the blitz until the very end, no matter how many passes Manning completed, the Colts backed off and played soft D for most of the game. This meant Brees got in a rhythm completing short passes and didn't have to deal with much pressure.
The Superbowl is not the time to play it safe with your game calling, Mr. Caldwell. A valuable lesson for the rookie coach.
-You just wonder what impact this loss might have on Peyton Manning's legacy. In the week leading up to the game, people were beginning to talk about him as the greatest quarterback of all time, what with his four MVPs and potential two Superbowl rings. But now he's 1-1 on the biggest stage of all, and he made a huge mistake with the game on the line.
Bad news for Peyton (who is by far the best player in the league and has been for a while) but people will remember that Porter pick for a long time. Legends are made and destroyed on Superbowl Sunday, my friend...just ask Joe Montana
-In a postseason that's been awful for kickers (see Graham, Shayne and Kaeding, Nate), give Garrett Hartley some props. First kicker in Superbowl history to hit three field goals of 40+ yards. He kept the Saints in it when they couldn't score touchdowns. 9 crucial points.
-Dwight Freeney may not have had a huge impact on the game, but that was one monstrous sack of Drew Brees in the first half. On the play, Freeney bull-rushed Jarrod Bushrod and pushed him back into Brees. He reached out, latched onto the Saints quarterback's jersey somewhere around the shoulder, and with literally only one arm pulled Brees down, slamming him into the ground. Violently.
Turned out to be the only sack of the game. Not bad for the man working with only one peg for most of the past two weeks.
That being said, the Colts hardly got any pressure on Brees the rest of the way.
-Superbowl Halftime Show: The Who, 6/10. I'm sure I'm going to offend some people with my comments here, so if you're a diehard Daltrey and Townshend fan, look away now.
The band looked washed up. Their voices weren't great, their outfits were horrible, and can someone please tell Pete Townshend that kids these days aren't impressed by the windmill anymore?? (I know it's your signature move, dude, but try something else. Or at least tone it down a little.)
“Teenage Wastelands” is an epic song, and the stage lighting looked pretty cool, but I was bored as soon as “Who are you” came to an end.
-Superbowl Top Five Commercials:
Google: Call me a sentimental fool, but that was a cute ad. Creative too, telling a entire story through Internet searches.
Snickers: Love watching Bette White getting tackled. In any context. And hearing her say: “That's not what your girlfriend said last night,”of course.
Emerald Nuts and Pop Secret Popcorn: Something very funny about people flapping around like dolphins and jumping out of a show pool to get some salty Emerald treats.
Bud Light: Can't pick one out of the package of ads in particular, but they ranged from solid to very funny.
Dodge: Just one of the multitude of downtrodden men ads we saw on Sunday, but this one was the best.
-Final Postseason Record: 4-7
Did not see this one coming, I have to say. I didn't think the Colts offense could be slowed down the way the Saints managed to. Shout out to my fellow Eugene apartment dweller Madison B. who bounced back from an 0-4 wild-card weekend to best me today by picking the Saints.
Feb 6, 2010
Picking Superbowl XLIV
-How I did last weekend (or two weeks ago if you're counting): 2-0
Finally a good playoff week, though Favre and the Vikings almost ruined it for me
-Records in the playoffs: 4-6
One Superbowl pick away from slightly-below-average postseason.
Saints vs. Colts: Almost five months after the season's first regular season game we finally get to the big one, the Superbowl, and honestly we could not have hoped for a better match-up. Throughout the 2009 season, the Colts and Saints have been consistently been the best teams in their respective conferences.
The Saints came out of the gates faster, blowing away the Eagles, the Jets, the Giants and the Patriots before we even got to December. In their final five games, they cooled off, going 2-3 and barely beating the Bucs and Falcons. In truth, they looked like a vulnerable number one seed heading into the playoffs. The Cowboys, the Packers, and the Vikings all looked like they had more momentum. However, the Saints outlasted all of them in the postseason, and though Brett Favre back in the Superbowl would have been a great story, New Orleans finally making it is an even better one.
The Colts did not have the explosive or emphatic wins early in their season but got our attention just because they consistently kept winning. Despite a number of tough match-ups including games against the Ravens, Patriots, Texans (twice) and Broncos, they were 14-0 with two weeks left and most likely would have gone undefeated had Jim Caldwell not decided to rest his starters with the number 1 seed locked up. Two comfortable postseason wins later, here they are in the Superbowl once again.
Everyone is expecting a offensive shoot-out on Sunday and though I think we shouldn't expect either team to score less than 20 points, talk of breaking the highest-scoring Superbowl record is maybe taking things too far. Neither team is known for its defense but in games like these, defenses can usually come up with at least a few stops and maybe a turnover or two.
A lot of focus this week has centered around the Colts elite pass-rusher Dwight Freeney's damaged ankle, and how much of a factor he can be in Sunday's game. Without Freeney, some analysts are saying, the Colts are going to struggle to get to Drew Brees. No pressure will mean Brees and his stable of receivers will have their way with the Colts secondary.
My gut tells me that the two weeks off will have allowed Freeney to heal up enough to at least partake in some obvious passing situations. How explosive his ankle allows him to be is what everyone will be watching for the first time he takes the field.
The Saints pass-rush, on the other hand, was fearsome against the Vikings in the NFC championship game, hitting Favre repeatedly and leaving him battered and bruised (even though they didn't sack him). Then again, Peyton Manning is the best in the league when it comes to avoiding contact and not taking sacks. We saw against the Jets how, through completions, he can take the sting out of a pass-rush. Wouldn't be surprised if it happened again against New Orleans.
Ultimately, I think the game is going to come down which offense executes better (cliché alert, but doesn't mean it's not true) and gets into a better rhythm. And that's why I'm going with the Colts here. Having watched both teams all season, I have to say that while the Colts occasionally get cold and Manning isn't immune to throwing picks, they are far more consistent in moving the ball on offense. The Saints do have the capacity to light up a game with big plays and look completely unstoppable, but they also can get into ruts. Just look at their game against the Vikings, they gained only 65 yards of offense in the entire second half and converted 3 out of 12 third downs.
With or without Dwight Freeney, I think the Colts defense will be able to generate more stops than the Saints defense and barring turnovers completely altering the face of the game, that should be enough for Peyton Manning to win his second Superbowl.
Colts: 31 Saints: 24
Finally a good playoff week, though Favre and the Vikings almost ruined it for me
-Records in the playoffs: 4-6
One Superbowl pick away from slightly-below-average postseason.
Saints vs. Colts: Almost five months after the season's first regular season game we finally get to the big one, the Superbowl, and honestly we could not have hoped for a better match-up. Throughout the 2009 season, the Colts and Saints have been consistently been the best teams in their respective conferences.
The Saints came out of the gates faster, blowing away the Eagles, the Jets, the Giants and the Patriots before we even got to December. In their final five games, they cooled off, going 2-3 and barely beating the Bucs and Falcons. In truth, they looked like a vulnerable number one seed heading into the playoffs. The Cowboys, the Packers, and the Vikings all looked like they had more momentum. However, the Saints outlasted all of them in the postseason, and though Brett Favre back in the Superbowl would have been a great story, New Orleans finally making it is an even better one.
The Colts did not have the explosive or emphatic wins early in their season but got our attention just because they consistently kept winning. Despite a number of tough match-ups including games against the Ravens, Patriots, Texans (twice) and Broncos, they were 14-0 with two weeks left and most likely would have gone undefeated had Jim Caldwell not decided to rest his starters with the number 1 seed locked up. Two comfortable postseason wins later, here they are in the Superbowl once again.
Everyone is expecting a offensive shoot-out on Sunday and though I think we shouldn't expect either team to score less than 20 points, talk of breaking the highest-scoring Superbowl record is maybe taking things too far. Neither team is known for its defense but in games like these, defenses can usually come up with at least a few stops and maybe a turnover or two.
A lot of focus this week has centered around the Colts elite pass-rusher Dwight Freeney's damaged ankle, and how much of a factor he can be in Sunday's game. Without Freeney, some analysts are saying, the Colts are going to struggle to get to Drew Brees. No pressure will mean Brees and his stable of receivers will have their way with the Colts secondary.
My gut tells me that the two weeks off will have allowed Freeney to heal up enough to at least partake in some obvious passing situations. How explosive his ankle allows him to be is what everyone will be watching for the first time he takes the field.
The Saints pass-rush, on the other hand, was fearsome against the Vikings in the NFC championship game, hitting Favre repeatedly and leaving him battered and bruised (even though they didn't sack him). Then again, Peyton Manning is the best in the league when it comes to avoiding contact and not taking sacks. We saw against the Jets how, through completions, he can take the sting out of a pass-rush. Wouldn't be surprised if it happened again against New Orleans.
Ultimately, I think the game is going to come down which offense executes better (cliché alert, but doesn't mean it's not true) and gets into a better rhythm. And that's why I'm going with the Colts here. Having watched both teams all season, I have to say that while the Colts occasionally get cold and Manning isn't immune to throwing picks, they are far more consistent in moving the ball on offense. The Saints do have the capacity to light up a game with big plays and look completely unstoppable, but they also can get into ruts. Just look at their game against the Vikings, they gained only 65 yards of offense in the entire second half and converted 3 out of 12 third downs.
With or without Dwight Freeney, I think the Colts defense will be able to generate more stops than the Saints defense and barring turnovers completely altering the face of the game, that should be enough for Peyton Manning to win his second Superbowl.
Colts: 31 Saints: 24
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