Jan 24, 2010

NFL Conference Games

Quick Hits:

-The key to the Colts-Jets title game turned out to be Indy's offensive line getting to grips with the Jets pass-rush. Colts fans must have been worried after Peyton Manning was sacked twice on his first four dropbacks, but those turned out to be the only two times the Jets got to him. After that, a combination of good protection and long drives with completion after completion entirely took the sting out of the Jets pass rush.

It'll be very interesting to see what Saints defensive coordinator Greg Williams does to attempt to dial up pressure on Manning in the Big One.

-You know one of the things that makes Manning so special as a quarterback: he loves to go back to the receiver with the hot hand. Example: With just over two minutes left in the second quarter against New York, on 2nd and 10, deep in Colts territory, he threw an 18 yard strike to rookie receiver Austin Collie.

Next play, after the two minute warning, he tossed a beautiful pass down the seam just beyond the grasp of a Jets defender and into Collie's hands. 46 yard pick up, 1st down at the Jets 16.

On the next play, Collie runs the exact same route in the middle of the field, and Manning finds him in between the linebacker and the safety for a touchdown. 3 passes, 80 yards and a touchdown, all in under a minute and all to one receiver.

When Manning gets in that kind of zone, you sometimes feel that it's only him and the receiver out there on the field and no matter what the defense does, they can't stop him. Scary stuff. Scary good, of course.

Because the Jets did everything they could to take away Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark, Collie and Pierre Garcon were the two receivers Manning was locked into on Sunday, and they had almost 300 yards between them.

-Credit to the Jets offense and Mark Sanchez in particular, they really did everything they could to put New York in a winning position. First off, there was Sanchez's 80 yard touchdown pass to Braylon Edwards early in the second quarter (by the way, probably one of best executed offensive plays I've seen all season...both the route and the throw were absolutely perfect), then we saw a good bit of trickery by Brad Smith for a big completion that led to another TD in the first half.

The Jets did stall offensively in the second half, but there were hampered by the injury to Shonn Greene, and let's be honest, this team wasn't built to hang 30 points on the board, especially against a team as good as the Colts.

All in all, Mark Sanchez's postseason has to be one of the best ever by a rookie QB, and look for the Jets to be a power in the AFC next season.

-Rant of the week goes to Rex Ryan. Ryan went all 'Lou Pinella' on the officials after he thought (rightly) that they missed a late hit on 'the Sanchezise'. First, there was a headset and hat toss, and then he launched into a tirade that you didn't a lipreader to decipher. Top marks.

-The Saints march on in the Superdome, but Monday morning, after the euphoria of victory has worn off, they'll know that they were lucky to get through. Here are two stats that will tell you why.

a) 65 yards of offense on six possessions in the entire second half (only 4 more yards than Courtney Roby's kickoff return at the start of it). Now that's worrying Saints fans, I don't care what you tell me. The offense looked disjointed, and Drew Brees was fidgety and inaccurate after the interval.

b) 3 of 12. That's how they did on third down conversions against the Vikings (a lot of those were 3rd and short too). They were unable to sustain drives by continually coming up short on the most important down. It prevented the offense from getting into a rhythm.

Why did they win then, you might ask yourself? Simple answer, Minnesota turnovers: 5 (You seen many games where one team turned the ball over five times go to overtime recently??), great defense that led to those turnovers, and a mistake-free overtime possession that led to the winning field goal.

-The Vikings couldn't hold onto the ball. Yes, the Saints do a great job of trying to punch the ball out every time they tackle, but still. 6 fumbles. In an NFC title game. That's just bad.

-Say what you will about Brett Favre, but you can't deny that he is one of the ultimate competitors in the NFL. Favre took hit after hit on Sunday (15 by Fox's last count). He grimaced in pain after a couple of them, and had to be supported off the field after another. But he stayed in there till the very end, and almost led his team to an improbable win.

There has to be some competitive fire burning in that man to trade in a quiet luxurious retirement for the beating he took out on the Superdome astroturf at forty years old. You almost found yourself wishing -despite yourself- that he would get that final shot at the Superbowl he so desperately craved.

-Matchup within the matchup of the week: Jabari Greer on Sidney Rice. Greer turned Rice, who had exploded against the Cowboys last week, into a non-factor: 4 catches for 43 yards (though he did get one touchdown). In fact on both of his interceptions, Favre was trying to force the ball to Rice when he was tightly covered.

Now Greer and the rest of the Saints secondary have to turn around and do the same thing to all four of the Colts receiving threats in two weeks' time.

Jan 23, 2010

Picking NFL Conference Games

-How I did last weekend: 1-3

1-3, again! I didn't feel quite so horrible about myself after reading the staff of Pro Football Weekly's picks and seeing that very few amongst their ten experts did much better. Nonetheless with the benefit of hindsight, I realize I read far too much into the late-season slumps of the Saints and Vikings.

-Record on the playoffs: 2-6

It's comforting to know that even if I pick both conference games and the Super Bowl correctly, I still won't break .500 on the postseason...

Jets at Colts: Don't take anything away from the Saints-Vikings game, but to me, this is the most intriguing match-up of the weekend.

We learned last week that these Jets were more than just this season's Cinderella team, they are a real threat to go all the way. On the other hand, the Colts were consistently the best team in the NFL throughout the season till they sat their starters the last two games of the year (Greatest fact of the week: if Jim Caldwell hadn't pulled Peyton Manning and co. against the Jets in week 16, there's very little chance New York would be here right now. So that decision may not only end up costing the Colts a perfect season but also a Superbowl berth. Imagine the potential ire in the Circle City...).

Thing is, the Jets actually match up really well against the Colts. The Colts, just like the Chargers whom New York knocked off last week, don't have much of a running game to speak of. They were dead last in the NFL running the ball during the regular season, and only ran for 44 yards on 23 carries against the Ravens last week.

The Jets will fancy their chances of stopping Joseph Addai and Donald Brown and forcing Indy into a lot of obvious passing situations (Rex Ryan also made it clear to the media this week that the Jets' D will not be falling for one second for all the play action Indy likes to use). This is where the Jets shine. They will rush and pressure Manning all game long just like they did with Philip Rivers, while allowing their excellent secondary (I promise I won't give you another Darrelle Revis eulogy this week) to go to work covering the Colts receivers.

On the other side of the ball, another factor swings the balance in the Jets favor. The Colts aren't very good at stopping the run either, the bread and butter of New York's offense. Indy gave up over 126 rushing yards a game, while New York was running for 172 yards a game during the regular season. If Shonn Greene can continue to establish the run, and even break a couple big ones, the Colts are in trouble.

Of course, Peyton Manning is the great equalizer. He's the league MVP for the second successive year, and if anyone can break down the Jets vaunted defense, it's him. He is used to throwing the ball in obvious passing situations, is the best in the NFL at avoiding pressure and can probably put enough points on the board in one half, if the offense is in tune, to put the game out of reach.

Hate to say it, because it's a bit of a cliché, but it really does come down to how well Manning plays on Sunday. He's not always been perfect this season (his interception total of 16 was his highest since 2002), and threw two picks last week against the Ravens (one was called back for a penalty), but if he can avoid the big turnovers, it's hard to bet against the best player in the NFL.

Thought about the Jets long and hard, and can practically see how they might win on Sunday, but Indy has proved me wrong every time I've doubted them this season. Colts.

Vikings at Saints: Ah, the NFC title game we wished for most of the season, and then doubted would ever happen as the season drew to a close.

Both teams unexpectedly destroyed their opponents last week, playing as well as we had seen them do all season, giving us very few flaws to pick apart, making this game extremely difficult to predict. Will it come down to injuries? Can Percy Harvin perform despite his migraines? Will Pat Williams and Ray Edwards, two vital cogs of the Minnesota defense, be able to shake off their knocks? How about Jeremy Shockey (who gives the Saints offense a nastiness and swagger as well a solid option at tight end)?

As I see it, one key battle is Reggie Bush, who played out of his skin last week, against the Vikings outside linebackers Ben Leber and Chad Greenway. The Saints will probably try to get the ball out of Drew Brees' hands quickly to avoid the Vikings terrifying pass rush, and that might mean a lot of screen passes and quick throws to Bush on the outside. If Leber and Greenway, as well as Jasper Brinkley, can contain Bush and prevent the short passing game, Brees might find himself in a lot of uncomfortable passing situations.

On the other side of the ball, Adrian Peterson's surprising lack of production of late (he hasn't had a 100 yard day since November 15) is a concern for the Vikings. However, he does still has that homerun capability to scare the Saints into loading the box. Combine that with the chemistry between Brett Favre and Sidney Rice throwing the deep ball of late and it's enough to give Vikings the edge (though ball-hawk Darren Sharper spending three years in Minnesota and being very familiar with their system balances it out a little).

Expect an explosion of offense in a game that either team could run away with, but will probably, just because of the size of the occasion go down to the wire.

The deciding factor in the end: the Saints are at home. Watching last week's games, I couldn't help but feel the home fans in both New Orleans and Minnesota played some part in their team's win. The Vikings haven't traveled well this season (they're 4-4 away from the Metrodome this season), and the Superdome is going to a few notches up from loud on Sunday. The fans just might not let the Saints lose. Saints.

Jan 18, 2010

NFL Divisional Week

-I guess right about now is the moment we forget all about the Saints end of season woes. On Saturday, New Orleans looked once again like the team that destroyed the Jets, Eagles, and Patriots during the course of the regular season.

Its defense was solid and made a few plays, but the real strength of this team is its offense, and Drew Brees and co. were simply awesome against the Cardinals. Brees threw the ball crisply and accurately, Marques Colston was at his “matchup-nightmare” best with Devery Henderson and Jeremy Shockey supporting him well.

But the real star of the show was Reggie Bush. Running back Bush, the number 2 overall pick in 2006, came to New Orleans with almost impossible expectations to live up to. For much of his four seasons in Louisiana, he hasn't been able to live up to them. On Saturday, he did...More than.

Bush ran for 84 yards and a touchdown on 5 carries and added 4 catches for 24 yards. He also returned a punt for a touchdown that effectively put the game out of the reach of the Cardinals. He set the tone early, running over defenders on his first two carries, and ran the ball with purpose all day long. There was none of the dancing, toe tapping, or sideline to sideline running that have plagued Bush in his NFL career. He ran north and south, between the tackles, and displayed the explosive speed we've always known he's had.

What a trump card for Sean Payton to have in his back pocket for the rest of the playoffs! Any team the Saints play from here on in better have some kind of plan to stop Reggie.

-Moral of the story for the Cardinals: don't expect to win consecutive playoff games if you don't play defense. No matter how good your offense is.

-The Colts were far from terrifying for most of the game against the Ravens, but beware, this team knows how to win. Indianapolis flashed its quality at times -particularly when it scored two touchdowns in the last two minutes of the second quarter- but benefited primarily from the Ravens offensive's ineptitude.

The Colts inability to run the ball (44 yards on 23 carries, that's less than 2 yards per rush) must be a concern, but then again they might not face a front seven as frightening as the Ravens for the rest of the playoffs.

You just get the feeling that Manning and the offense had plenty left in the tank, and believe me they might well need it against the Jets next week.

-Speaking of the Colts, has a team ever had better luck with two rookie corners than Indianapolis has had this season? When they drafted Jerraud Powers in the third round from Auburn and signed Jacob Lacey, undrafted out of Oklahoma State, could they have possibly imagined the two of them contributing as much as they have their rookie seasons?

Both Powers and Lacey seized their opportunity when injuries allowed them to get some playing time early on this season and both looked like seasoned vets against the Ravens. They both had one defended pass, and Powers picked off Joe Flacco in final minutes.

But the thing is, it's not luck. The Colts have done this time and time again, making stars out of low-profile draft picks and free agents. Clint Session, Raheem Brock, Pierre Garcon, Robert Mathis, Gary Brackett, the list goes on and on.

Powers and Lacey are just the two latest products of the school of footballing excellence that is Indianapolis.

-Moral of the story for the Ravens: don't expect to win consecutive playoff games if your offense is one-dimensional. No matter how good your defense is. If there's a bigger problem area on any playoff team than the one Baltimore has at wide receiver, I'd like to hear it.

With Derrick Mason surely having his last game in purple and black, Ozzie Newsome and John Harbaugh have got to get something done either in the draft or in free-agency. Aside from Mason and Ray Rice, Joe Flacco just doesn't seem to have any chemistry with his other receivers.

-Don't take anything away from Minnesota, but where did this display by the Cowboys come from? We knew the Vikings would be better than they had been the past few weeks what with homefield advantage and a week of rest. But I don't think anyone saw this type of display coming from the Cowboys.

The team we saw on Sunday was the spitting image of the team that lost two straight back in December, and whose toughness was being questioned all over the media. Since that time it seemed the Cowboys had turned the corner, that Tony Romo and the team as a whole was playing to its potential.

Not so in the Metrodome. They didn't play well in any phase of the game but their offense was particularly bad. They did lose LT Flozell Adams to injury early on, but nonetheless did a woeful job of protecting Romo, who himself was a shadow of the QB who torched Philly twice the last two weeks. The kicker was that they had opportunity after opportunity to get back in the game, but couldn't come up with a single, big momentum-swinging play.

-In case you didn't know it yet, this Jets team is for real...and they are going to keep doing it the ugly way. It would be easy to say that New York is only in the conference championship game because of its defense, which is the best in the NFL. And to a large extent that's true.

Against the Chargers, the defense blitzed and pressured Philip Rivers all game while still maintained excellent down-field coverage. 344 might sound like a lot of yards to give up, but they also forced 6 punts San Diego punts and three field goals (all of which were missed by the way, more on that later). Most importantly, they held the Chargers to just 14 points the fewest they've scored in a game all season.

But this team is more than just a stellar defense. Rookie QB Mark Sanchez struggled at times, especially early on, but he was at his best exactly when the Jets needed him to be, leading the comeback in the fourth quarter. RB Shonn Greene continues to be a revelation, notching his second straight 100 yard playoff game. Their stalwart offensive line, which contains three pro-bowlers, was equally good in both run and pass situations.

Don't look now but we've got ourselves another Cinderella team, folks, one that was 4-6 through November 22nd. And the best part is, they don't play anything like a Cinderella team. They just play flat-out ugly, and the whole of New York is loving it.

-Play of the week: This play from Pierre Garcon stopped what could have been a real momentum shifter in the Colts-Ravens game. It showed unbelievable hustle from Garcon, who, after watching Manning's throw get picked by Ed Reed, ran forty yards back the other way just behind Reed before making the perfect diving punch-out to knock the ball loose. Reed, who's been picking quarterbacks for a long long time, never saw him coming.

-Five Superstars of the Weekend:

1) Reggie Bush, RB, Saints: Notice how Sean Payton hardly put him back in the game after he had returned that punt to pay-dirt. That tells me he wanted to make sure that not only would Bush have plenty left in the tank but also that he didn't want other teams to get too much of a look at how the Saints might use him the rest of the way. He just might be the player to watch for the rest of the playoffs.

2) Ray Edwards, DE, Vikings: Probably the most unheralded of Minnesota's four defensive linemen (the others being Jared Allen, Pat and Kevin Williams), but he was the best of the lot on Sunday. He sacked Tony Romo three times, forced a fumble, had another tackle for a loss and countless other pressures. All that despite missing a big chunk of the second half with a knee injury.

3) Darrelle Revis, CB, Jets: You really could have picked any one of the Jets starting eleven defensive players after the game they played on Sunday. But Revis is the talisman of this D, and yet again he lived up to the hype. The Chargers barely went after him, but when they did, on two deep balls to Vincent Jackson, he almost intercepted the first and did intercept the second (albeit rather fortuitously). He also didn't give up a single catch all game to any receiver he was covering; not even a five yard hitch....Will Manning dare throw his way?

4) Brett Favre, QB, Vikings: Say what you will about him running up the score on Dallas in the final minutes, but Favre was money against the Cowboys: 15 of 24 for 234 yards and 4 TDs. No signs of fatigue for the veteran, especially not during his touchdown celebrations.

5) Sidney Rice, WR, Vikings: On a weekend where some of the league's finest wide receivers were on display, Rice outshone them all. His second catch of the game was a 47-yard Favre bomb, his third a 16-yard dump-and-run for another TD. He finished with 141 receiving yards and three touchdowns.

Honorable Mention: Drew Brees, QB (Saints); Peyton Manning, QB (Colts); Ben Leber, LB (Vikings); Jason Witten, TE (Cowboys); Shonn Greene, RB and David Harris, LB (Jets); Antonio Gates, TE (Chargers).

-Five Duds of the Weekend.

1) Nate Kaeding, K, Chargers: Can you believe it? For the second postseason week in a row a kicker sits atop the dud list. That's right, a kicker. Kaeding is the Pro Bowl kicker for the AFC this season, but suffered perhaps one of the most dramatic cases of commentator jinx ever after Jim Nantz called him “an automatic” as he lined up to take his first field goal. He missed all three of his kicks in the game, from 36, 57, and 40 yards, which turned out to be a killer for the Chargers in a low-scoring game.

2) Tony Romo, QB, Cowboys: Yes, he had to deal with a lot of pressure against the Vikings, but he also held onto the ball far far too long on multiple occasions. He fumbled three times (losing two), and threw a horrible interception to Ben Leber. Welcome back playoff Tony, where have you been?

3) Bryant McFadden, CB, Cardinals: Another day of poor pass coverage from McFadden who got picked on by Drew Brees and the Saints offense. Didn't give the Cardinals offense a chance.

4) Joe Flacco, QB, Ravens: Flacco wasn't dreadful, but has to be the fall guy for Baltimore's offensive ineptitude. He did throw two picks and generally didn't bring the best out of his receivers.

5) Ladanian Tomlinson, RB, Chargers: The fact of the matter is part of the reason the Jets were able to get so much pressure on Philip Rivers because they knew they didn't have to worry so much about the Chargers run game. LT picked up just 24 yards on 12 carries. He's a long way from being the game-changer he used to be.

Honorable mention: Nick Hardwick, C (Chargers); Doug Free, OT and Mark Colombo, OT (Cowboys).

Jan 15, 2010

Picking NFL Divisional Games

-How I did last weekend: 1-3

Not bad picks last weekend really, though the Bengals were an awful choice. I don't think many people predicted the Patriots shooting themselves in the foot quite as dramatically as they did. And the Green Bay-Arizona game...Could have gone either way.

-Playoff record: 1-3

Cardinals at Saints: Here we are again, another Cardinals team that was so inconsistent in the regular season turns to gold in the playoffs....Groundhog's day anyone?

Kurt Warner was awesome against Green Bay, and the Saints secondary shouldn't scare him too much.

The real key to this one is whether Drew Brees can get his offense ticking again. The Saints offense has been pedestrian of late compared to what we know it can be. If he continues to struggle to click with his receivers, and the Cardinals defense (which, by the way, is no juggernaut itself) get a few stops, Arizona may be able to pull away.

Finally a mention of what would potentially be the best storyline of the weekend. Deuce McAllister, a fan favorite in New Orleans during the seven seasons he spent there as a running back, has watched football from his living room couch all season after the Saints released him this off-season. Now, due to injury concerns, he's been re-signed and will take the field against the Cardinals. You'd have to be a pretty cold-hearted individual to not be pulling for him at least a little bit on Saturday.

The Saints have all the talent in the world, but the Cardinals have all the intangibles on their side. They have been here before, and they've created something of a playoff aura around themselves. I'm done betting against them. Cardinals.

Ravens at Colts: The Colts have been focusing on this game since Jim Caldwell decided it wasn't worth risking the starters' fitness to go for the perfect season. Well, they'll need all of that focus if the Baltimore D plays like it did against New England.

Ray Lewis had certainly marshaled his defensive troops superbly in that game: they caused four Patriot turnovers, and pressured Tom Brady all game. But shutting down a 'Wes-Welkerless' Patriots offense is an entirely different proposition from getting to MVP Peyton Manning and stopping him.

The Ravens simply have too many offensive frailties to win another playoff game: the team has been carrying quarterback Joe Flacco of late rather than the other way round.

Nonetheless the Patriots only squeaked by the Ravens in low scoring game when they met in the regular season, so expect another close one. Colts.

Cowboys at Vikings: Sure, Brett Favre likes playing football; loves it in fact. But make no mistake about it, the reason he put his 40 year-old body through another full regular season was for another shot at the postseason. And guess what, the Vikings organization brought him in specifically because they believed he would give them a better chance in the playoffs, not because they were enamored with the feel-good story of another Favre comeback. That makes this an awfully big game for the gray-haired gunslinger from Mississippi.

Across from him, he finds a Cowboys defense that has only given up 31 points in its last four games. They can rush the passer with DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer and their secondary is developing into a nasty, scrappy little unit.

The Vikings love playing at home, they are 8-0 this season and outscored opponents 262-124, but the Cowboys provide by far the biggest test to their Metrodome dominance.

A blowout of the hapless Giants doesn't conceal the fact that Minnesota had cooled in the final few weeks of year, just as Dallas was beginning to hit its stride. Cowboys.

Jets at Chargers: It's strength on strength as the Chargers high-octane passing offense takes on the Jets defense; number one in the league both against the pass and overall. Put it this way, if you're not excited about watching San Diego's pro bowl wide receiver Vincent Jackson take on the Jets shutdown corner Darrelle Revis on Sunday, then you don't like football that much....

The Chargers haven't lost a game since mid-October and were the hottest team entering the playoffs. However the Jets' D should make this a close game. If they can make plays and keep Philip Rivers out of rhythm, they have the running game to keep him off the field and chew up the clock.

Nonetheless, I don't see Mark Sanchez mustering another performance like last week's (when he went an error-free 12 of 15 for 182 yards), because the Chargers will get far more pressure on him than the Bengals managed. Expect Antonio Cromartie and Quentin Jammer, San Diego's experienced corners, to get more of opportunities to make plays against the rookie thanks to that pressure.

It's the playoffs and the Jets definitely have some the ingredients needed to knock the Chargers off, but San Diego is a tough team to pick against. Chargers.

Jan 11, 2010

NFL Wildcard Week

-My prediction of another weekend of uncompetitive football almost came true. With less than five minutes gone in the second half of the last game of the weekend, Larry Fitzgerald scored on a 33-yard touchdown pass to put the Cardinals up 31-10 over the Packers.

With the Bengals, Eagles and Patriots having already limped out of the playoffs after producing poor performances, it looked like the entire weekend was about to whizz by without a single good game.

Thankfully, Aaron Rodgers and the Packer offense were scintillating after that Fitzgerald TD, scoring 35 points and forcing the game into overtime. Their second half display breathed some life into what had been a very dull weekend.

The Bengals couldn’t produce the passing game they desperately needed in order to mount a successful comeback against the Jets. The Eagles had no answer to Tony Romo and the Cowboys offense and the Patriots shot themselves in the foot with early turnovers.

All three teams were booed by their fans at some point during their games (both the Patriots and Bengals were at home), and can you blame them? After the emotional rollercoaster that is a season in the NFL, the very least the fans deserve is a competitive playoff display to prove to them the journey was worth it.

Philadelphia, New England and Cincinnati all laid a massive egg in that respect this weekend.

-Did the NFL very quietly and discreetly introduce a new model of football for the playoffs sometime last week? Because no one could seem to hold onto the ball.

There were 14 fumbles in the four wildcard games. I’m certainly no math quiz but I think that works out to more than three a game. That seems high, given that we were supposed to be watching eight of the best teams in football.

Not to mention all the dropped passes on display: the Jets Braylon Edwards’s drop in the endzone Saturday in particular springs to mind, but a number of Green Bay receivers were also guilty on Sunday.

-A quick thought on what is rapidly becoming a highly controversial no-call. The blogosphere is blowing up today with talk of the no-call for Michael Adams grabbing Aaron Rodgers’ facemask as he forced the fumble in what turned out to be the decisive play of the Green Bay-Arizona overtime.

It’s certainly an interesting case because the facemask contact definitely occurred after Adams’ arm had stripped the ball and forced the fumble. The contact was also incidental in the sense that it didn’t cause the fumble or have an effect on the play.

However critics of the no-call argue that defenders cannot touch a quarterback’s facemask in any situation without some yellow laundry being tossed.

As Peter King pointed out, once the fumble has occurred, the officials’ eyes are supposed to be focused on the ball rather than the quarterback and his facemask. Furthermore, in the chaos that usually transpires when the ball is fumbled, it is pretty common for penalties, that in normal play would be called, to be ignored.

It will be interesting to see if this play, because it occurred in such a crucial situation in such a crucial playoff game and the hit was put on a quarterback not a role player, will force the NFL to yet another rule reconsideration.

-Five superstars of the weekend:


1) Kurt Warner, Cardinals:
Best performance by a passer this weekend. Simple as that. He failed to connect on only 4 of the 33 passes he threw, and torched the Green Bay secondary (particularly in the middle of the field) for 379 yards and 5 TDs. Is Warner about to deliver another very special January?

2) Anthony Spencer and DeMarcus Ware, Cowboys: The premier pass rushing combo in the NFL right now. Bar none. They combined for three sacks and countless other pressures. Brett Favre won’t be looking forward to seeing them next week.

3) Julian Edelman, Patriots: There was so much pressure on Edelman coming into this game to step up and be a Wes Welker clone. He did a pretty darn good job, catching two touchdown passes, and showing a fantastic ability to keep moving after the first hit. He also had a wonderful punt return of 28 hard yards.

4) Greg Jennings, Packers: Jennings was freakishly good against the Cards. No need to read about it, just watch.

5) Cedric Benson, Bengals: For much of the game he was the Bengals only source of offense. Dragged Cincinnati back into the contest with a 47 yards TD run in the fourth quarter. He’s big, strong, and has a nasty change of direction.

Honorable mention: Shonn Greene and Mark Sanchez (Jets), Felix Jones (Cowboys), Vince Wilfork (Patriots), Dwan Edwards and Ray Rice (Ravens), and Steve Breaston (Cardinals).


-Five duds of the weekend:

1) Shayne Graham, Bengals: As a kicker, it’s pretty hard to make it to number 1 in the dud list, so that gives you an idea of the kind of day Graham had against the Jets. He missed two crucial field goals, from only 28 and 35 yards, in the second half. The former Pro Bowler couldn’t handle the pressure of the big stage.

2) Chad Ochocinco, Bengals: Ochocinco doesn’t really ‘do’ common sense, so there’s not much point in explaining to him the stupidity of giving the best cover corner in the league extra ammunition to shut you down by calling him out in the national media. Darrelle Revis certainly didn’t look like he needed a brown paper bag to cover you, Chad…either time.

3) Donovan McNabb, Eagles: McNabb opened up an offseason of speculation about his job in Philly after two bad performances against Dallas. He held the ball too long, took four sacks, and failed to get the offense moving.

4) Carson Palmer, Bengals: Palmer needed to have a big game for Bengals in their first playoff appearance since 2005. He ended up showing less poise than the rookie across from him Mark Sanchez. He looked jittery on his early throws, throwing the ball too high and not following through properly.

5) Nick Collins, Patriots: Before the game, whispers emerged from the Cardinals camp that they believed they could attack the Packers in the middle of the field with their passing game. What an understatement that turned out to be! Steve Breaston, Larry Fitzgerald, and Early Doucet practically set up camp between the Green Bay hash marks. Collins, the primary safety, has to be the fall guy for this. That was his turf to cover.

Honorable mention: Tom Brady and Randy Moss (Patriots), Bryant McFadden, Antrel Rolle and Neil Rackers (Cardinals), Sheldon Brown (Eagles).

Jan 8, 2010

Picking NFL Wildcard Games

-How I did last week: 14-2

For a few minutes, I had a shot at a perfect 16-0....The first time in my life that I might have had something in common with Peyton Manning.

-Record on the season: 83-52

After going over 60% on the regular season, let's move on to the playoffs, where the men are separated from the boys.

Jets at Bengals: Of the three wildcard match-up previews last weekend, the game in East Rutherford was probably the most lopsided. Not only did the Jets dominate the Bengals, but they had possession for more than 40 minutes and limited Cincinnati to five first downs and 70 yards of total offense. Now that's taking domination to a whole new level.

However there are few things that should be different for the Bengals this time around:

a) This game actually means something to them. I can't imagine it was easy for their bruised and battered players to get pumped for a meaningless game in freezing cold New Jersey last week.

b)They will have its full contingency of starters back. That includes their 96-yards per game running back Cedric Benson, their primary run-stuffer Domata Peko and their starting safety Chris Crocker. (Sorry Jets fans, that also means no more J.T. O'Sullivan cameos.)

c) The game is in Cincy, and that counts for something come playoff time.

Nonetheless they still face a formidable opponent in the Jets defense which is ranked number one in the NFL. New York will probably slow down the Bengals running game, and Darrelle Revis should prevent Chad Ochocinco from having too much of an impact.

It is on the other side of the ball that we can expect to see more significant change from last week when the Jets pounded the Bengals' D for 257 rushing yards using a stable of rushers, including Thomas Jones, rookie Shonn Greene and running back/quarterback/wide-out/kick returner/mailman Brad Smith.

This week expect the Bengals defense to cheat up, load the box and dare Mark Sanchez to beat them through the air. The overlooked stat of Sunday's blowout: Sanchez completed only 50% of his passes for only 63 yards. His quarterback rating is 63 on the season, worse than his backup's (Kellen Clemens checks in at a not-so-gaudy 63.8). The Bengals have possibly the best cornerback tandem in the league in Jonathan Joseph and Leon Hall, and they'll be quite happy to leave them one-on-one with the Jets receivers as long as Sanchez is under center.

If great pitching is what wins teams games in October, great quarterbacking is what does the trick in January. And the Jets just don't have that (yet). Bengals.

Eagles at Dallas: This is another game that would require a major role reversal for the Eagles to prevail after they were blanked by the Cowboys last week, but there are a few factors in their favor:

a) Andy Reid post-season record. He is undefeated in playoff openers in his decade as the Eagles head coach and will leave no rock unturned in his search to find the answers to beat Dallas. Couple that with Tony Romo's playoff record as a starter, 0-2, and the fact he hasn't quite shaken the “choker” moniker yet, and it all becomes very confusing.

b) Despite the fact they've lost twice to Dallas this year, the Eagles are still a very good team. At times this season, their offense has looked more explosive than any other in the league (thanks to Mr. Explosion himself DeSean Jackson), and their defense can still dial up pressure with the best of them.

A couple big plays by either unit (or even a monster DeSean Jackson kick return) could swing the balance in their favor.

However, the problem for the Eagles is that the Cowboys match up very well against them. The Eagles like to blitz, but Tony Romo is at his best when defenses come after him. The Eagles have fast receivers who have the ability to get open downfield when McNabb has time in the pocket, but the Cowboys have a great pass rush that has sacked McNabb 7 times in two games this season.

If Philadelphia has any shot at beating Dallas, my money on Andy Reid to find it, but until then, even though my heart says Birds, my head says 'Boys....firmly. Cowboys.

Ravens at Patriots: The only match-up we didn't already see last weekend. The two teams did play earlier this season in Foxborough though, a game the Patriots won 27-21 thanks to a Mark Clayton drop on 4th down in the final seconds.

Both teams would have to do some serious patchwork -Baltimore on offense, New England on defense- to advance much further in the playoffs, but don't think for one second that that will make this game any less competitive or hard-fought.

Had Wes Welker not torn up his knee in last week's game in Houston, this pick would have gone far more comfortably to the Patriots. However Welker's injury is a huge blow for New England. Not only does Welker lead the NFL in receptions (123), but he has more yards (1348) than Randy Moss this season.

For a Patriots team that has no running game to speak of, losing Welker means that any team they face, including the Ravens, will double cover Randy Moss every chance they get. Tom Brady is simply going to have to go elsewhere with the ball, so...Welcome to the party, Julian Edelman. The rookie out of Kent State, who will start in place of Welker Sunday, has become the talk of the town in Boston this week.

If Edelman, along with Ben Watson, Sam Aiken and *gasp* Joey Galloway, can catch some balls and take some of the pressure off Moss, the New England offense should be able to put more points on the board than the Ravens. If not, expect Baltimore to take over the game and Ray Rice to work the Patriots sub-par defense on the ground.

Nonetheless, the postseason super-combo of Brady and Belichick and the Foxborough homefield advantage (the Patriots are undefeated there this year) are enough to swing my vote. Patriots.

Packers at Cardinals: Anyone who has watched the Cardinals play this season knows exactly what to expect from them. A complete lack of consistency.

Their inconsistency was perfectly captured in their week 13 and 14 games. In week 13, they produced one of the performances of the season to completely outclass the high-flying Vikings 30-17. Yet, the following week they tripped up in San Francisco, turning the ball over five times and getting handled comfortably 24-9 by the 49ers.

The truth of the matter is no one really knows which team will show up Sunday: the one that made that memorable run to the Superbowl last season, or the one that lost twice to the 8-8 49ers. Nonetheless, even they don't play their best, I can't see the Cardinals getting pushed around as easily by the Packers as they were last week.

Speaking of the Packers, they have been consistent. Consistently good. They have won 7 of their last 8 (their loss during that run came on the last play of their game against the Steelers, by the way, a game they really should have prevailed in) and Aaron Rodgers is looking every bit the franchise quarterback Mike McCarthy dreamed him to be.

It's hard to find many flaws in this Green Bay team. Its defense and offensive line looked porous earlier this season, but both have been shored up in the second half. If there is one weak link the Cardinals will look to exploit with their excellent receiver core, it's backup cornerback Jarrett Bush who has started in Al Harris' place ever since the veteran got hurt.

All in all, barring a monstrous day from Kurt Warner and the Cardinals receivers, I think this young Packers team will stop any chance of another Cardinals Superbowl run. Packers.

Jan 5, 2010

NFL Week 17

-All in all, you could not wished for a less suspenseful final week of season. Blow-out to my left, blow-out to my right... Even with two AFC playoff spots, an NFC East title,and an NFC number 2 seed still up for grabs, Sunday's set of games failed spectacularly to deliver the suspense and drama we have come to expect from America's favorite game.

There was some drama at Reliant Stadium where the Texans scored 21 unanswered points in the fourth quarter against New England, and Ben Roethlisberger had to shake off a tough hit to his throwing arm to lead a crucial drive which prevented a similar comeback by the Dolphins.

But all in all, much the excitement of the day in the AFC was sapped by the simple fact that the two teams who controlled their own playoff destiny, the Ravens and the Jets, had very winnable games against the Raiders and the already playoff-bound Bengals to punch their tickets for the big tournament. Both won without much difficulty leading the whole game.

In the NFC, the two important games to determine the NFC East title and the NFC playoff seedings both ended in blow-outs with the Vikings destroying the Giants and the Cowboys blanking the Eagles.

Ah well, you can't hope for gold every week...

-If week 17 was a dress rehearsal for the wild card games, let's hope things don't quite go as planned when the real thing rolls around. We got sneak-peeks at three of the four wild card playoff games we'll be seeing next weekend, and 24 points was the smallest margin of victory in those games.

Which begs the question: are the Jets, Cowboys and Packers really that much better than the Bengals, Eagles and Cardinals? Or was Ken Whisenhunt's thinking of “showing the opposition nothing” the main reason for the lack of competition?

My gut leans towards the latter, but you never know, we could be in for another uncompetitive weekend.

-Rating the backup quarterbacks: One fun thing about having so many teams with nothing left to play for was that we got to see a bunch of guys under center who we aren't used seeing. Here's how the backups did:

+Charlie Frye, Raiders: Bounced back from a nightmare game against Cleveland, to finish with a QB rating over 100. Threw for 180 yards and a TD, and completed 72% of his passes. JaMarcus Russell may well be third string by the time August rolls around. A

+Matt Moore, Panthers: Can we even call him a backup anymore? A 4-1 record as a starter and a 98.5 QB rating this season. Provides exactly the type of solid, mistake-free quarterbacking that a strong running team like the Panthers needs. A

+Daunte Culpepper, Lions: The veteran turned back the clock to have his best game of the season, hitting 67% of his passes and throwing for 262 yards. No W though. A-

+Billy Volek, Chargers: The career backup man provided exactly what you'd expect from a backup QB. 63% completion rate, a TD and an interception, and an 82 QB rating. A-

+Tyler Thigpen, Dolphins: The former Chiefs signal caller came on in the worst possible circumstances, down 27-10 to the Steelers after both the first and second string quarterback had been knocked out of the game with injuries. Thigpen led the Dolphins on two quick touchdown drives and threw a beautiful TD pass to Davone Bess. He did throw two interceptions though affects his score. B

+Mark Brunell, Saints: Brunell was inaccurate (just over 50% completion and an interception), and just scraped by 100 yards passing. Was working with primarily backup receivers though. B-

+Brian Hoyer, Patriots: The rookie out of Michigan State came on for two series, one at the end of each half. He went a solid yet unspectacular 8 of 12 with no TDs or picks. B-

+J.T. O'Sullivan, Bengals: The journeyman QB actually completed more passes than Carson Palmer on the day (3 to Palmer's 1), but he also fumbled twice. Both fumbles were undoubtedly on him, as he held the ball loosely and too long on both plays. D+

+Matt Leinart, Cardinals: The former first round pick out of USC got his third chance to start in place of Kurt Warner this season, and yet again failed to live up to expectations. He did complete 13 of 21, but his rating dropped to 33.1 after two bad interceptions. He avoids an F though because he does throw a nice tight spiral. D-

+Curtis Painter, Colts: 4 of 17, that's a 24% completion rate. On top of that, Painter fumbled for the second game in a row and also threw an interception. Two weeks, two awful cameos for the rookie out of Purdue. F

Jan 2, 2010

The Rose Bowl: Thoughts from the Student Section

-Don't take anything away from the Buckeyes, they were good value for their win. We got a little taste of Terrelle Pryor's upside Friday, didn't we? We expected him to be mobile, to move around in the pocket and make tacklers miss, but I don't think many people (apart from Jim Tressel and his coaching staff) envisioned Pryor throwing the ball 37 times, and completing 23 of those passes.

And when Pryor and the Ohio State offense came up short, the Buckeye's defense bailed them out. The D-line pressured Jeremiah Masoli almost every time he dropped back to pass, and didn't allow the Ducks running game to wear them down. The secondary held up well too: Masoli only had 81 passing yards on the day.

-Moving on to the Ducks, you have to say that, given the performance of the offense, they had little hope of winning this game. I haven't seen Oregon's offense look that toothless and one-dimensional since the very beginning of the year. One stat (apart from Masoli's 9 completions) that perfectly captured the game was the number of Duck first downs. 12. For an offense that prides itself in moving the ball, and going on long but fast drives, that's a number that kills you.

The Ducks had 26 first downs against Cal, 31 against USC and 25 against Oregon State in the Civil, their three biggest wins of the season. But they couldn't get that momentum going on offense. 12 first downs, that's approaching Boise State territory (they had 6 in that game).

Ohio State managed to keep the Ducks in third-and-long all day, and Masoli does not yet have the vision, poise and touch when he passes the football to beat a defense as good as Ohio State through the air in obvious passing situations.

To me that's something that Chip Kelly has to work on this off-season. Get Masoli a package of plays that he is comfortable executing in those obvious passing situations (from the shotgun if necessary). And that doesn't mean he has to throw a lot of long balls either. Utilize the team's speed by throwing good screens and tossing LaMichael James and Kenjon Barner the ball out of the backfield. Oh, and get the offensive line to work on its pass as well as its run protection. Masoli needs more time back there in those situations.

-Given the team's woes on offense, and the resulting extra time they had to spend on the field, I thought the defense actually gave a fairly good account of themselves. The secondary did get beat a number of times by the explosive DeVier Posey and Pryor did rack up over 70 rushing yards, but the front seven did also get to Pryor quite a bit (Kenny Rowe, my defensive MVP this year, picked up three of Oregon's four sacks) and held Brandon Saine and Daniel Herron to under 100 yards on 28 rushes.

-Finally a quick mention for special teams. If there was one huge positive to take from Friday's game it was the performance of special teams. Time and time again, they gave Oregon a lift with a big return, and prevented Ohio State from doing likewise. 204 yards of kickoff and punt returns: that's a huge number. They did a fantastic job of setting the table for the offense and giving them great field position.

Jan 1, 2010

Picking NFL Week 17

-How I did last week: 9-6

Not great, not horrible.

-Record on the season: 69-50

Hanging in there at almost 58%.

Colts at Bills: Don't expect anyone important on the Colts to play much in this one. Imagine the uproar if one of Indy's starters actually hurt themselves in Buffalo, with the hope of the perfect season already sacrificed to keep everyone healthy. Jim Caldwell would never be able to walk around in Indiana again....Bills.

Saints at Panthers: It may not appear so, but I think this match-up will actually matter more to both teams than a number of the weekend's other games. The Saints desperately need momentum heading into the playoffs. Should they lose here, they won't play until the division playoffs after a long layoff and entirely low on confidence. On the other side, Matt Moore has himself a NFL quarterback job to win. He'll have to do so without his favorite target Steve Smith, who was lost for the season with a fractured forearm. Panthers.

Jaguars at Browns: Hands up if you saw this Browns three-game winning streak coming? Well obviously not this writer, who picked against them all three weeks...I can't bear to miss another Browns pick so I'll justify picking them by telling myself that the Jaguars didn't look too comfortable in cold conditions in New England last week, which they'll get another taste of in Cleveland. Browns.

Eagles at Cowboys: The best matchup of the weekend, for the NFC East division title. The Eagles spanked the Cowboys when they played this same fixture last December, but the Cowboys beat the Eagles earlier this season in Philly. This also might just a warm-up act, as they could face each other in the wild-card round next week, but I like Dallas just because they looked good value for their win over the Eagles in November . Dallas.

Bears at Lions: If I'm a higher-up in the Bears organization, I'm watching this Brandon Marshall situation in Denver very closely. The chemistry Marshall and Jay Cutler had in Denver was undeniable, and I'm pretty sure the Bears faithful wouldn't mind seeing what their franchise QB could do with a receiver of Marshall's caliber in the Windy City. Only problem: the Broncos already own the Bears 1st round pick next year, and Chicago gave its second rounder to the Bucs for Gaines Adams (pretty sure that's not panning out the way they hoped). So I can't see it happening. Bears.

Steelers at Dolphins: Nice try, LaMarr Woodley: the man has obviously wielded the powerful weapon of reverse psychology before. Unfortunately for him, I doubt anything he could say could wind the Patriots or Bengals up enough to fight for the wins that Pittsburgh needs to make the playoffs. As for the Fins, they need a minor miracle. Steelers.

Patriots at Texans: If you were Bill Belichick, would you have any desire to face the defending champ Steelers in the first round of the playoffs?? Texans.

Giants at Vikings: Ah, back inside the warm indoor confines of the Mall of America field, where the Vikings are 7-0 this season. Unfortunately for Minnesota, they'll have to venture out of their comfy dome if they progress in the playoffs. But for right now, I think they'll just be happy to be home. Vikings.

Bengals at Jets: The Jets, along with the Ravens, are in the privileged position of controlling their own playoff destiny. Another piece of luck for New York: for the second week running, they face a team that will in all likelihood rest its starters (which makes this latest piece of Chad Ochocinco trash talk all the more bizarre). Jets.

Falcons at Buccaneers: Atlanta has found out the hard way that there's a big difference between a team that goes 11-5 and one that goes 9-7 (provided they win this one, of course). It's all part of second year quarterback Matt Ryan's learning curve though, I suppose. He'll know by now how special what the Falcons achieved in his rookie year was, and hopefully what he needs to do to get them back there. Falcons.

49ers at Rams: If you're trying to win a starting quarterback job in the NFL, as Alex Smith is (and not for the first time in his life either), it doesn't hurt to play the Lions and Rams in your last two regular season games. Especially a Rams franchise with next year's number 1 overall pick clearly in its sights. 49ers.

Packers at Cardinals: We might see this matchup again next week in a much more meaningful scenario in the wild-card round of the playoffs. In fact, we probably will, as the Giants, Dallas and Arizona would all have to win for the Cardinals to clinch the NFC's second seed and a bye. However if the Giants do prevail in the earlier game, things could get very interesting...Packers.

Ravens at Raiders: The Ravens just need to win their game in Oakland to claw its way out of the mire that the AFC playoff race has become. Let's face it, if they can't do that, they have no place playing in the postseason. Ravens.

Chiefs at Broncos: Josh McDaniels is one intense dude. Anyone see when NFL Network wired him? All I know is that I wouldn't want to be on his bad side, but I guess Brandon Marshall doesn't mind. Broncos.

Redskins at Chargers: How do you pick this one? Chargers back-ups against Redskins. Should be a no-brainer, if you've watched the Redskins the last two weeks, you know it's not. Still, I'll show Washington a little respect here. Redskins.

Titans at Seahawks: Chris Johnson, all eyes are on you in this one. The lightening quick running back can become the sixth player in NFL history to pass 2,000 rushing yards in a single season on Sunday if he can pick up another 128 yards. That's a big number for most players, but for Johnson, against Seattle's D...let's just say I wouldn't be too shocked. Titans.