NFL Week 3

-Two teams that disappointed in 2009, the Steelers and the Chiefs, are among the three remaining undefeated franchises this season (in addition to the winner of the Bears-Packers Monday night contest). The fact that both teams have made it this far has to be considered a surprise. It was widely assumed that the Steelers would have to weather the storm resulting from the suspension of their franchise quarterback, Ben Roethlisberger, while the Chiefs were coming off their third consecutive losing season.

Pittsburgh has relied on its defense this year, dominant once again thanks in no small part to the return of its All-Pro safety Troy Polamalu from injury. They've forced turnovers (7 in a single game against the Titans) while giving up only 11 points per game and 4.3 yards per play (best in the NFL in both categories).

Meanwhile the Chiefs are fast becoming one of the storylines of the season. They have a host of talented young athletes on both sides of the ball, while head coach Todd Haley has been showing creativity and guts in his decision-making. They already have a two game lead in their division and will be a handful for most of the teams who visit Arrowhead Stadium.

-A well-fought, exciting game in Miami. The Dolphins had owned the Jets in recent times, winning three straight against New York. But the Jets responded on Sunday night, led by another strong performance from quarterback Mark Sanchez.

After being run out of town by the Ravens physical defense in Week 1, Sanchez has looked like a different player in Weeks 2 and 3. His two touchdown throws to Dustin Keller in the first half against Miami showed just how accurate he can be as a pocket passer, and though he only completed 54 percent of his passes on the night, he avoided the costly turnover that may have flipped the game on its head.

I have to say I was also impressed with Miami's passing game. Sure, the Jets didn't have their best cornerback Darelle Revis on the field, but the Dolphins moved the ball through the air with ease, collecting 363 passing yards. This forced Rex Ryan to neglect his normally ferocious pass rush and drop more and more defenders into pass coverage; a move which paid dividends on the game's final drive when Miami couldn't get the ball into the endzone.

With the Jets, Dolphins and Pats all sitting on 2-1 records and playing good football, the AFC East division race might end up being one of the tightest and most exciting in the league this season.

-The NFL's two most dominant running backs doing what they do best. Tennessee's Chris Johnson scored twice against the Giants while rushing for 125 yards on 32 carries. Not a huge yard per carry average (3.9), but far more impressive when you take into account that New York repeatedly loaded the box, with 8 defenders near the line of scrimmage, to stop him.

Adrian Peterson outdid Johnson with a performance reminiscent of his first two seasons in the league. He rushed for 160 yards on 23 carries (in case you're keeping score at home, that's almost 7 yards per carry) and a couple touchdowns. The most encouraging thing for Vikings fans about Peterson's game at the moment is that he seems to have put his fumbling issues behind him. He coughed up the ball 9 times in '08, and 7 times in '09, but hasn't had a fumble on 70 carries this year.

-There's a lot of things wrong with San Francisco's offense right now, but the performance of rookie offensive tackle Anthony Davis must be near the top of that list. The Niners drafted Davis 11th overall in the 2010 draft to shore up the right side of their offensive line in the present, and potentially the crucial left side in years to come. But Davis has gotten off to a slow start in the City by the Bay.

Already known as a frequent false start offender throughout the preseason and first two regular season games, Davis struggled with two other aspects of his game against the Chiefs. He allowed two sacks of Alex Smith, including a play where Kansas City sent only four rushers, one of which – Tamba Hali – ran around Davis as if he wasn't there and took Smith down, causing a fumble. Davis also showed mental weakness: he was called for a 15-yard unnecessary roughness penalty for aiming a punch at Chiefs DT Shaun Smith's midriff, a mistake that ultimately ended a promising San Francisco drive.

-Going 3 for 3 on 40+ yard field goals in the Superbowl will give you a couple free passes, Garrett Hartley, but don't push your luck. Saints kicker Hartley missed a 29 yard chip shot in overtime while Drew Brees was fist pumping on the sideline. Atlanta then ran the ball down the field, and hit their kick to seal the surprise victory. Hartley had been close to a 90 percent kicker in his first two seasons in New Orleans, but has missed two of five this year.

-Rookie Performance of the Week: Seahawks safety Earl Thomas came up big against San Diego, picking off one of the league's best quarterbacks, Philip Rivers, twice. Oh, and did I mention, both of his interceptions came in fourth quarter? And the second one was in the end zone and effectively ended the game?? That's just studly from the former Texas man.

-Play of the Week: Everyone loves a good trick play.

-Ridiculous Play of the Week: Funny thing is, this could have been Aqib Talib's second pick of the day.

-Five Quick Hits:

1/ Your prayers have been answered, Joe Flacco. You have your go-to receiver, and his name is Anquan Boldin.

2/ For all the preseason talk of improvement in New York, these 2010 Giants look a lot like the 2009 version, don't they?

3/ Peyton Manning seems to throw a touchdown pass to a receiver that I've never heard of every other week. Against Denver, that man was Blair White, a rookie out of Michigan State. Welcome, sir, to the NFL's best franchise to be a receiver.

4/ First win of Sam Bradford's professional career, and a well-deserved one (and here's a bonus cheap giggle).

5/ See you in a couple years, Kevin Kolb.

Picking NFL Week 3

How I did last week: 10-6

The 2009 Cincinnati Bengals. I'll settle for that, though I've been kicking myself all week for not going with my gut and picking the Bears upset of the Cowboys like I wanted to.

Record on the season: 18-14

Pulling into the black.

Bills at Patriots: The Texans already got their longtime monkey, the Colts, off their back this season, but the Bills seem to be a million miles away from overcoming their own personal divisional nemesis, the Pats, who they have lost 13 straight to. Maybe C.J. Spiller has a breakout game, maybe Patrick Chung and the frustrated Donte Whitner each pick off a Tom Brady pass leading to the Bills pulling off a tremendous upset. But at Gillette Stadium, where New England hasn't lost a regular season game since November 2008... I wouldn't bet on it. Patriots.

49ers at Chiefs: Heartbreaking. That's the only way I can describe San Francisco's loss to the defending Superbowl champs Monday night on a last second field goal. However, turnovers aside, the Niners proved they could move the ball on offense and score touchdowns against the Saints, something that the Chiefs, despite being 2-0, has struggled with so far (two offensive touchdowns in two games). I still like San Francisco to win the NFC West (also known as the NFL's worst division by a country mile) but they can't afford to fall to 0-3. 49ers in a defense-dominated battle.

Titans at Giants: The Giants couldn't stop the Colts from running the ball on them last Sunday. This week they welcome Chris Johnson, who now needs 166 rushing yards per game to reach his 2,500 yard goal. New York will load the box to stop CJ2K and that will allow Vince Young to kickstart Tennessee's anemic passing game. Titans.

Browns at Ravens: Joe Flacco may have had his worst outing as a pro last week (17 of 39 passes completed and 4 interceptions), but unless he decides Sunday morning to throw all his passes left-handed, I wouldn't even contemplate picking the Browns (who've lost to both the Bucs and Chiefs so far) to win in Baltimore. Ravens.

Bengals at Panthers: If there's one team that I've proved entirely incapable of deciphering during my time as an NFL progniscator, it's the Cincinnati Bengals. I underestimated them at the start of last season, then overestimated them in the season's last few weeks and playoffs. Nothing's changed in 2010: I'm 0-2 on Bengals picks. That's why it worries me that this pick seems so cut and dry. The Panthers are 0-2, haven't been able to run the ball this season, and are giving a rookie quarterback, Jimmy Clausen, his first NFL start. Cincinnati should devour them. Bengals.

Steelers at Buccaneers: If Josh Freeman wants to prove to the world that he can continue to play mistake-free ball (he has a 95 passer rating through two games), then doing so against a defense that's forced 10 turnovers in two games would be a great place to start. Tampa Bay's improved defense shouldn't give up too many points to Charlie Batch, but Pittsburgh's D will keep them on the field for much longer that they'd like. Steelers.

Falcons at Saints: Atlanta is probably the only team that could challenge New Orleans' dominance of NFC South this season, and beating the Saints in the Superdome would certainly send out a strong message that the divisional race is on. But until Matt Ryan shows a little more clutch in one of these big games, I refuse to pick the Falcons to win. Come on, Matty Ice, live up to that nickname and prove me wrong! Saints.

Lions at Vikings: I'll give you one more chance Mr. Favre. Vikings.

Cowboys at Texans: For the second straight game, Tony Romo will pass for over 300 yards in a Cowboys' loss. Why? Because Dallas can't run the ball, Houston's explosive offense can score points in bunches and, most importantly, the Texans have newfound belief in themselves. Texans.

Eagles at Jaguars: The total about-face of Philadelphia head coach Andy Reid (usually legendary for his stubbornness) with regards to the Eagles quarterback controversy (documented adeptly here by SI.com's Peter King), should tell you one thing. Michael Vick's performances on the last two Sundays weren't flukes. Reid must believe that Vick can get back to the level he was performing at prior to his run-in with the law. If you believe in Vick's supposed maturation process, perhaps even better. Either way, he should be able to rain points on Jacksonville. Eagles.

Redskins at Rams: The two happiest men that the Redskins front office moved for Donovan McNabb this offseason? Tight end Chris Cooley and receiver Santana Moss. McNabb's passing ability has given new life to both Moss, who has 16 catches for 166 yards through two games, and Cooley, who is averaging 72 receiving yards per game and 16 yards per catch (both career highs by some distance). Redskins.

Colts at Broncos: A tragedy in Denver this past week reminded us of the over-the-top importance that as a society we attach (thanks in part to columns like this one) to what is ultimately just a game. In light of Kenny McKinley's death, a player who couldn't imagine a life without football, any attempt to try and analyze this matchup seems a little too frivolous. Colts.

Raiders at Cardinals: A game both teams will really want, given that the loser could be staring 1-4 square in the face (Raiders play Chargers and Texans in Week 3 and 4, while Cardinals play the Saints and the Chargers). Aside from both squeaking past the Rams, neither team has shown us much this season, so I'll go with the home team. Cardinals.

Chargers at Seahawks: So which one is the real Seahawks team? The one that blew out San Francisco in Week 1 or the one that committed three turnovers and gave up 17 unanswered points in the first half to Denver in Week 2? History suggests the latter, and I'm inclined to agree. Chargers.

Jets at Dolphins: There are a lot of factors in Miami's favor for this matchup. They beat the Jets twice last season, they're playing at home, and they're full of confidence coming off back-to-back wins. However, in New York's impressive fightback against New England last week (sans Darelle Revis), I saw a glimpse of the team Rex Ryan has been talking about to anyone who would listen for the last six months. Jets.

Packers at Bears: Games played on Monday nights always seem to be closer than you'd thought they'd be. I think Chicago, in front of its home fans, gives the Pack a hard-fought, close game. Ultimately, however, this will also be the game where the Bears finally face the music for their disaster of an offensive line. Packers.

NFL Week 2

-Manning Bowl II: A classic nail-biter, it wasn't. A reminder of how good the Colts can be when they get rolling, it certainly was. This was a statement win for Indianapolis. All week, their players have been hearing a smorgasbord of the following: the Colts can't defend the run, they're soft, they can't run the football, they are over-reliant on Peyton Manning, their offensive line is poor, etc., etc. During one the pregame shows, ESPN pundit Keyshawn Johnson repeatedly maintained that after watching hours of game film, he believed the Colts era was coming to an end.

Don't be making plans for the funeral just yet, Keyshawn.

The Colts first statement of the night was to score a rushing touchdown (a 7 yard run by Donald Brown) on their opening drive. Indy's defense went on to make a number of statements: harnassing the Giants running game, continuously pressuring Eli Manning and causing turnovers.

The elder Manning is long through with having to make any statements, but he went 20 of 26 for 255 yards and three touchdowns on the night just for the heck of it. The game was as good as over by halftime, with the Colts up 24-0.

The victory once again demonstrated the strength of the Indianapolis Colts franchise. It seems that every time the media starts asking questions of them or sniffs out some perceived vulnerability, the Colts respond well and deliver a performance that reminds us of why they have been at or near the top of the AFC for so long.

-Two high profile quarterbacks struggling = Two traditional NFC powerhouses start 0-2. Let's start with Brett Favre (I heard somewhere that he likes top billing). After looking shaky last week in the Thursday night season-opener against the Saints, Favre had a day to forget against Miami: tossing three picks, losing a fumble (which was returned for a touchdown) and throwing two incompletions on fourth down for two more turnovers.

Until he starts winning some games, the questions are going to continue rain down about his age, his desire and quite simply if he still has it. The bad news for Minnesota is that they have very little in terms of a backup plan at quarterback: they are going to live and die with Favre under center this season. I wonder, I just wonder if they might be starting to kick themselves for passing on Carolina rookie quarterback Jimmy Clausen with the 34th pick of the 2010 draft.

Meanwhile, in Dallas, the season has been all about missed opportunities. Just as they did in their opener, the Cowboys got into promising positions time and again, but failed to convert those opportunities into maximum points. There was the David Buehler missed field goal from 44 yards, the Roy Williams fumble and the two Tony Romo interceptions. Romo did end up throwing for almost 400 yards on the day but came up short in the business end of the game.

Both the Vikings and the Cowboys have a decent shot at winning next week against the Lions and at the Texans respectively, but if either of them don't, the alarm bells will be doing more than ringing.

-Last season, it was the Jets defense that had everyone talking. This season, the Steelers defense is back, in a big way. Where do you want to start? Holding the league's best running back to 34 yards on 16 carries? Brutalizing Vince Young to the point where Jim Fisher felt forced to bench him?Laying big hit after big hit on the Titans playmakers? Nah, let's go with turnovers. Pittsburgh forced six of them against Tennessee (and a seventh on special teams): three interceptions and three fumbles. When the Steelers D plays like that, led by safety Troy Polamalu and linebacker James Harrison, they become Pittsburgh's best offense, regardless of who they have at quarterback.

-How about those Buccaneers? They may not have beaten two of the league's best teams, but still, who had them starting 2-0? I certainly didn't. Tampa Bay owes its emergence to:

a) The continued improvement of second-year quarterback Josh Freeman who may only be completing a little over 55% of his passes this season (29 of 52) but has a 4-1 TD to interception ratio through two games.
b) Its rookie wide receiver Mike Williams, who already has two touchdown grabs for the Bucs.

Still, their winning record could very well be history sooner rather than later as they face the Steelers, the Bengals and the Saints in their next three games. But for the moment, Tampa Bay should enjoy the rarefied air at the top.

-A mostly “Darelle-Revis-less” Jets secondary holds up well against the Patriots passing attack. When Revis left the game with a tight hamstring and New York trailing New England 14-7, it appeared that Tom Brady might have a great opportunity to really get rolling. Instead Antonio Cromartie, rookie Kyle Wilson, backup safety Brodney Pool and co. shut Brady down. They intercepted him twice, and covered Randy Moss and Wes Welker brilliantly: the two star receivers had only one catch between them in the second half.

On the other side of the ball, the Jets offense avoided mistakes and, thanks to big days from the rejuvenated Ladanian Tomlinson, the rejuvenated Braylon Edwards, and Mark Sanchez, scored the points that they couldn't last week in Baltimore.

-Rookie Performance of the Week: Against the Eagles, Lions running back Jahvid Best ran like the player who terrorized Pac-10 defenses for the last two seasons. Best was effective both running and receiving the ball: rushing for 78 yards and two touchdowns and catching 9 passes for 154 yards and another TD, on this beaut of a play.

-Play of the Week: Randy Moss doing what he does best.

-Ridiculous Play of the Week: Bounce, bounce, bounce....

-Five Quick Hits:

1/If you like comebacks and you like offense, you better have been watching the Redskins-Texans overtime thriller. There were 947 yards of total offense in the game of the season to date, as Houston overcame a 27-10 deficit late in the third quarter to win on a Neil Rackers kick..

2/ Graham Gano, you just got iced.

3/ I don't how Andy Reid is going to keep both his promise to Kevin Kolb and the fans in Philadelphia happy.

4/ Clay Matthews once had to walk on to the USC football team. Today, the second-year outside Packers linebacker leads the NFL in sacks with six, three of which came Sunday against Buffalo. He's going to have a big, big year.

5/ Thank you Derek Anderson for proving my interception prediction true (Twice). Could the Max Hall era really start in Arizona before the winter kicks in?

Picking NFL Week 2

How I did last weekend: 8-8

Rustier than Brett Favre's throwing arm.

Record on the season so far: 8-8

Don't be taking any of these picks to the bookies just yet.

Steelers at Titans: I don't have anything against Chris Johnson – he's undoubtedly one of the league's most exciting players – but I think he's dreaming if he really thinks he can have a 2,500 yard season. Even if he avoids injury and plays in every game, he's going to have to average 156.25 rushing yards per game. That means his vintage performance last week against the Raiders (142 rushing yards at an average of 5.3 yards per carry and 2 TDs) isn't good enough. The Steelers linebackers will help him rein in his targets a little. Steelers.

Ravens at Bengals: Watching Baltimore's opener, it appeared that Joe Flacco may finally have enough receiving weapons to regularly convert in obvious passing situations, something he hasn't had over the course his professional career so far. That's bad news for the division rivals Bengals who beat the Ravens twice last season. Meanwhile Cincinnati is in a slump: they haven't won against a good team since they overcame the Steelers in week 10 of last season. They need a W in a game like this one. Ravens.

Eagles at Lions: The battle of the backup QBs? If Kevin Kolb isn't cleared to play from his concussion, that's what this game will be. Even with 19 months of prison time under his belt, I'd still take Michael Vick over Shaun Hill any day (what an un-PC thing to say...apologies). After a poor preseason, Vick flashed the dual-threat ability that made him an NFL superstar while leading an Eagles fightback against the Packers last week. Should he produce another good individual performance, the Eagles faithful will be calling for the Kolb experiment to end though it has barely begun. Eagles.

Cardinals at Falcons: Derek Anderson shredded the Rams secondary for almost 300 yards last weekend, but he completed only 22 of 41 passes. I'm not buying Anderson stock just yet. I think Mr. Consistently Inconsistent throws at least one pick against Atlanta. Falcons.

Dolphins at Vikings: Miami always seems to be involved in close games: they don't earn many style points in victory (as evidenced by their uninspiring 15-10 victory over Buffalo last week) but they rarely get blown out either. Minnesota's current offensive frailties will keep this game close also, but Adrian Peterson is due a monster day and he'll deliver against the Dolphins. Vikings.

Chiefs at Browns: The Chiefs had a big win against San Diego last Monday. But I remember a similar win at home against the Steelers in week 11 of 2009. I jumped on the Kansas City bandwagon after that one, only to see them lose five straight games. What's that famous George W. Bush quote? “Fool me once...Shame on...Shame on you....You fool me, you can't get fooled again.” Point is Matt Cassel 's disappointing day (10 of 22 passes for 68 yards) was well disguised by some big special teams and defensive plays. I think the Browns will expose his lack of progress as the signal caller in Kansas City. Browns.

Buccaneers at Panthers: Big test for rookie defensive tackles Gerald McCoy and Brian Price. The two new starters will be charged with stopping two fuming running backs in DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, who each rushed for 1100+ yards last year but were held to 74 yards on 21 carries between them in week 1. Panthers.

Bills at Packers: If you have any doubt as to who is going to win this game, then you haven't been watching Aaron Rodgers run the Green Bay offense over the last twelve months. Packers.

Bears at Cowboys: Neither Chicago nor Dallas set the world alight in week 1. The Bears needed a controversial no-catch call to overcome the Lions, while the Cowboys played mistake-full football on route to being upset by the Redskins. Julius Peppers will be licking his chops at the prospect of facing the Cowboys porous/ hold-happy offensive line, and if the Bears can limit the damage done by Dallas receiver Miles Austin (easier said than done: he had 10 catches, 146 yards and a TD last week), they could win in Jerry's house. Cowboys.

Seahawks at Broncos: New Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll looked like his boisterous, energetic, USC self last Sunday and his players were loving every minute of it. How Carroll manages his team in moments of adversity, however, will be the true test of whether he succeeds in his return to the world of professional coaching. Playing on the road against a team that desperately doesn't want to lose its sixth straight regular season game (dating back to last December) could provide a first taste of adversity. Broncos.

Rams at Raiders: Way to ease your new franchise quarterback into the fray, Steve Spagnuolo. 55 pass attempts in Sam Bradford's first regular season start? You gotta be kidding me! Only Peyton Manning threw more passes in week 1. The bad news from Bradford's debut: the three picks he threw. The good news: he completed 58% of those passes and looked cool and collected out there. The best news: if he stays healthy, he's only going to get better. Raiders.

Jaguars at Chargers: David Garrard looked sharp in Jacksonville's opener, but I just can't see the Chargers slipping up at home when a 0-2 record is on the line. Chargers.

Patriots at Jets: New York's All-World cornerback Darelle Revis has been grabbing headlines (again), this time with a sore left hamstring that held him out of some practices during the week. But the Jets cornerback who should really be under pressure against the Patriots is Antonio Cromartie on the other side of the field. The Ravens picked on Cromartie last week, throwing pass after pass in his direction. He did intercept one, but he also gave up a lot of yardage. Now he faces the slippery Wes Welker, Brady's favorite third down target, who looked to be back to his best against Cincinnati. New York's offense struggles to keep pace with New England's. Patriots.

Texans at Redskins: You don't go and blow all the momentum gained from finally getting the better your longtime nemesis (as Houston did against Indianapolis last weekend) by losing the following week to a “work in progress” team like the Redskins. The game's two key match-ups: Texans running back Arian Foster against the Redskins defensive front seven and Houston Pro Bowl defensive end Mario Williams versus Washington rookie left tackle Trent Williams. The Texans win both. Texans.

Giants at Colts: Manning Bowl 2: Peyton vs Eli. Peyton got the better of the brothers' first professional encounter, leading the Colts to a 26-21 victory back in 2006. This time around, Peyton needs to win again to prevent the Colts from slipping to an 0-2 start for the first time since his rookie season in 1998. The Giants will try and test the Colts run defense, which is clearly one of their biggest weaknesses, as showcased by the Texans game. However New York's running game isn't as strong as Houston's. I expect both quarterbacks to get 30 to 40 passing attempts and you always like Peyton in a shootout situation; especially against his snot-nosed little bro. Colts.

Saints at 49ers: San Francisco suffered a major implosion last week in Seattle, casting serious doubt over their ability to be the cream of the NFC West crop. This Monday night game is a great chance for them to have a statement win by beating the Superbowl champs in front of their home fans and a national TV audience. Mike Singletary will have his team fired up that's for sure; if their defensive leader Patrick Willis doesn't lay someone out with a big hit by the end of the first quarter, I'd be very surprised. This game will be close, but until I actually see more out of the San Francisco offense in a non-preseason situation, I just can't pick them over New Orleans. Saints.

NFL Week 1 2010: Part Deux

Five Thoughts on Monday Night's Doubleheader

-The Jets and Ravens are mirror images of each other, and on Monday the Ravens were just a little bit better. These are two teams that emphasize defense and specifically run defense. On offense, they both try and establish the run first. But against each other, neither could get much of offense going and the game turned into a defensive slug-fest.

In the end, the difference turned out to be what each team could do on third down. The Ravens converted 11 of 19 third downs, mainly on Joe Flacco passes. He went a number of receivers on those conversions: Anquan Boldin, Todd Heap, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Willie McGahee all got a piece of the action.

Being successful on third down allowed the Ravens to enjoy almost double the time in possession of the Jets and produce the game's only touchdown drive.

-A night of offensive offense by the Jets. The last meaningful play of the game perfectly summed up the night's work for Mark Sanchez and co. On 4th and 10 at the New York 31 with 41 ticks left, Sanchez threw an out route to tight end Dustin Keller, who, under very little pressure but led by the throw, stepped out of bounds a good yard short of the first down marker. Turnover. Game over.

Here are few stats for you on the Jets offense. 6 first downs. 1 of 11 on third down conversions. 176 total offensive yards. 60 passing yards. 3 fumbles, one of which was lost (more on that in a moment).

The Jets may have a good enough defense to keep them close in most games, but the offense has to pick up some of the slack. Santonio Holmes coming back after week 4 should help, as will playing against weaker defenses than Baltimore's.

Nonetheless Rex Ryan's Superbowl champions prediction is looking more and more ill-advised by the day. Look, this team had a fantastic postseason run this winter but their offense is undoubtedly still a work in progress. I think Ryan's bold outlook may just have heaped too much pressure on this team and particularly on its young franchise quarterback.

-Big things are expected out of Shonn Greene this season, but the second year man had an opener to forget. Greene was one of the star's of the last postseason with two games of 100+ rushing yards. His breakout was part of the reason the Jets released their leading rusher Thomas Jones in March.

But Greene fumbled the ball twice against the Ravens, one of which was lost. He also rushed for only 18 yards on 5 carries and dropped an easy swing pass. The Jets will need Greene to be a much more prominent piece of the offense in the coming weeks.

-The Chiefs pull off a shocker at Arrowhead against the Chargers. Aided by a raucous crowd, a torrential downpour and an out-of-sync San Diego offense (how many of those have we seen this week?), Kansas City produced just enough big plays to overcome the Chargers.

The Chiefs barely gained more first downs than the Jets (9) but scored their three touchdowns on a 56-yard touchdown run, a 94-yard punt return and three plays after a 23-yard fumble return. They then set about protecting their lead the best they could, shutting down San Diego's rookie running back Ryan Matthews and double-teaming Antonio Gates on almost every play.

Philip Rivers tried his best to get the Chargers back in the game but suffered from miscommunications with his offensive line and receivers, and saw a number of his passes dropped.

The win reminded me of just how noisy Arrowhead can get and what a daunting place it can be to run an offense especially when the Chiefs are playing well.

-Kansas City now has two kick returners that will scare the bejesus out of teams this season. Well if you had an offense that struggles to put points on the board, wouldn't you pick up two of the best kick returners in the draft? That's precisely what Kansas City Chiefs did by selecting Dexter McCluster and Javier Arenas in the second round of this year's draft.

The strategy paid immediate dividends in the opener. Arenas brought the crowd noise to a whole new level with big punt return of 36 and 24 yards in the second quarter. McCluster sent them into ectasy when he returned Mike Scifres 60-yard punt 94 yards for a touchdown, a team record.

Anyone who watched the game could tell you that every time one of the two touched the ball, you felt there was a chance that it was going to the house. I'd be surprised if opponents keep giving either of them many more return chances.

NFL Week 1 2010

Six quick thoughts (on a day where more football was missed than watched):

+ Huge win for the Houston Texans: In fairness to Houston, this one has been coming for a while. The Texans came close to breaking their horrendous streak against the Colts (1-15 all-time) in both of the games they played against them last season but came up just short.

On Sunday, Houston played lights-out, taking the first lead of the game and never relinquishing it. The closest the Colts came to getting back into it was the 13-10 halftime score. But the Texans received the ball to start the third quarter and went on a 16-play touchdown drive which ate up almost nine minutes of clock and proved to be a backbreaker for the Colts.

That drive brings us to the key difference between previous Houston-Indiannapolis matchups and Sunday's game: Arian Foster.

Foster, an undrafted running back in 2009 who missed all of last season with an injury, had a career-day: rushing for mammoth 231 yards and 3 touchdowns. On that opening drive of the third quarter, Houston fed Foster the ball 10 times and Indianapolis couldn't stop him: Foster converted two third downs and a key fourth down to keep the chains moving.

Foster proved to be the great equalizer for the Texans, by both keeping Manning off the field for long stretches of the game (something they haven't been able to do in the past), and exploiting the Colts poor run-defense (a question mark for them even last season).

+And credit to some of the day's other upsetters: There's no doubt that neither the 49ers or the Cowboys played as well as they should have. But give some love to the Seahawks and the Redskins. Both were 3-point underdogs going in but both showed some homefield pride, played solid defense and came through some dicey moments – the Seahawks only mustered 11 yards on their first three offensive possessions and the Redskins withstood the Cowboys last-minute drive – to come away with well-deserved wins.

+Matt Ryan better look out for that dreaded “Junior Slump”: Granted, I didn't watch the Steelers-Falcons game in its entirety and Ryan's individual stats don't look bad on paper: 27 of 44 for 252 yards and an interception.

BUT with 1:45 left in the fourth quarter and the score locked at 9-9, Ryan took over at the Atlanta 21 with a chance to lead a game-winning drive. His first pass from scrimmage was so telegraphed that Troy Polamalu saw it coming from what seemed to be the other side of the field and picked it off.

That should have been curtains for Ryan and the Falcons, but the Steelers missed the potential game-winning field goal to send the game into overtime. After Atlanta won the coin flip, Ryan proceeded to go 1 of 3 for 9 yards as the offense stalled once again, and this time Pittsburgh granted them no reprieve.

Ryan had a phenomenal rookie season in 2008, but seemed to falter at big moments against high quality opposition last season. He did it again in the first game of 2010 and that will have Falcons fans worried.

+ The Calvin Johnson call: Ok, so I think we can all agree (Bears fans aside perhaps) that Johnson was a little hard done by on the call that ruled the potentially game-winning touchdown for the Lions an incompletion. But my question is (after watching the play about ten times), why did he take his left hand off the football in the first place? Neither of Johnson's arms were entangled with the defender's; it was almost as if he was simply trying to break his fall/ soften his landing. On a game-winning play? In the NFL?

Of course, everything seems SO simple to the fan/ pundit sitting on a couch or La-Z-Boy at home watching the game in super slow-mo, but still...Strange moment.

+Rough day for starting quarterbacks: Kevin Kolb of the Eagles and Matt Moore of the Panthers both sustained concussions in their games against the Packers and Giants respectively.

However the most serious quarterback injury of the day appears to be that of the Lions Matthew Stafford. Stafford injured his throwing shoulder thanks to a Julius Peppers sack. Early reports have the second-year signal caller missing multiple weeks of action.

One week (actually, one week minus two fixtures), and already three teams scrambling to their backup options at QB. Just goes to show how the hours and hours that NFL teams put into planning and preparation can be seriously disrupted with just one bad hit on their most important player.

+The Browns will be hoping (maybe praying) that they didn't read the tea leaves wrong when they gambled this offseason that quarterback Jake Delhomme had another couple seasons left in his arm.

If Delhomme continues to perform as he did on Sunday, his signing might just cost them the little bit of momentum they developped at the end of last season, thanks to Jerome Harrison's heroics and an improving offensive line.

Picking NFL Week 1

Raiders at Titans: For the first time in a while, the Raiders made a series of very smart off-season moves. They cut JaMarcus Russell (which made me happy simply because I was getting sick of bashing the guy), drafted stud linebacker Rolando McClain and made some signings to bolster their run defense in defensive tackle John Henderson and outside linebackers Kamerion Wimbley and Quentin Groves. Well, if they want to start stopping the run, playing against the NFL's best running back is certainly a good first test. Titans.

Panthers at Giants: Most casual NFL fans probably don't remember what happened last time these two teams played. But I guarantee the Giants do. The G-men were humiliated 45-9 by Carolina two days after Christmas last year. Jonathan Stewart rushed for over 200 yards in that game, and New York's number one goal will be to stop the Panthers running game on Sunday. If they can do that, Eli Manning should be able to dissect Carolina's defense, given the lack of a threatening Panthers pass-rush. Giants.

Colts at Texans: The Texans want to beat the Colts. Really, really badly. We all know the stats on this one. They are 1-15 all-time against Peyton Manning and co. They haven't forgotten the 20-7 halftime lead they blew at Reliant Stadium last season. Or the 42-yard missed field goal that prevented them from forcing overtime at Lucas Oil Stadium in the return match-up. But the Texans lost their best cornerback, Dunta Robinson, to free agency this off-season. Peyton will like the sound of that. Colts.

Broncos at Jaguars: The Broncos have been taking a beating with prognosticators lately after a spate of injuries and poor preseason showings. But they still have more of a solid squad than the Jaguars. Moreover, by all accounts, Kyle Orton appeared far more comfortable in the McDaniels' offense this season. Broncos.

Falcons at Steelers: Into the fire goes Dennis Dixon, a third year pro with only one NFL start to his name, against Atlanta. He didn't play exactly the way the Steelers wanted him to this preseason but they love his mobility in and out of the pocket. The Steelers defense should give Matt Ryan plenty of problems, but, in the end, Dixon's inexperience costs them the win. Falcons.

Dolphins at Bills: C.J. Spiller looked like a star in the making this preseason. Unfortunately, there isn't much strength around him. Miami will focus on shutting him down and allowing Trent Edwards to make some mistakes, something history suggests is quite likely to happen. Dolphins.

Lions at Bears: I like the way GM Martin Mayhew and head coach Jim Schwartz are rebuilding the Lions. I can't wait to see Ndamukong Suh take the field and get into opposition backfields. I also think Matthew Stafford will be much better this year. However, I still have a lot of faith in Jay Cutler and he'll surely be aware that this is a make-or-break year in his professional career. Bears.

Bengals at Patriots: The big question surrounding the Patriots is their defense. They gave up a ton of yards this preseason, and haven't been able to get to the quarterback for a while now. The Bengals strong running game with Cedric Benson should allow them to keep Tom Brady off the field for big chunks of the game, and that's never good news in New England. Bengals.

Browns at Buccaneers: The Browns gambled big on Jake Delhomme this off-season, and it might not be a bad play as Delhomme looked like he still had a season or two left in him during the preseason games. His experience may be very important to this up-and-coming team. Browns.

49ers at Seahawks: If the 49ers want to stake their claim to being the best in the NFC West, losing to the Seahawks in their opener would pretty much be the worst imaginable start. The 49ers defense should be able to smother most of what the Hawks can produce offensively: Seattle's O-line is weak (no first-round pick tackle Russell Okung in this one) and their receiving corp is paper thin. That means that Alex Smith will only have to be solid, not spectacular, to win this game for San Francisco. He has appeared more than capable of that this preseason. 49ers.

Packers at Eagles: I didn't watch that many preseason games, but one I did catch was the Green Bay-Indianapolis Colts match-up. I was quite simply blown away with how effectively Aaron Rodgers ran the offense in the few possessions he played. I like Green Bay a lot this season: I like them to win the NFC North and I think they could go deep into the postseason. They'll be too much to handle for an Eagles team debuting a new quarterback. Packers.

Cardinals at Rams: There are definitely tougher secondaries in the league that Sam Bradford could be facing in his regular season debut, but the number one overall pick is still bound to have some early jitters. The key to the game will be how Bradford deals with all the early pressure Arizona is bound to throw at him and his poor offensive line. Cardinals.

Cowboys at Redskins: Man, did Tony Romo stink bad this preseason. But I'm calling smokescreen/ indifference on his part. Once the lights go on on Sunday night, he will be sharp. I'd bet money on it. Meanwhile part of the reason Donovan McNabb isn't with the Eagles anymore was how he performed against the Cowboys in what turned out to be the last two games of his career in Philadelphia. Cowboys.

Ravens at Jets: One of most mouth-watering match-ups of the first week. The Ravens addressed their biggest weakness – the receiving corps – in spades during the off-season. In come Anquan Boldin, Donte Stallworth, Ed Dickson, Dennis Pitta and just a few days ago, T.J. Houshmandzadeh adding to Joe Flacco's favorite target last season, running back Ray Rice. As we saw on “Hard Knocks”, the Jets have both plenty of confidence and expectations heading into the season. But their offense sputtered in the preseason, and I think people too quickly forgot, in the midst of their 2009 postseason run, that Mark Sanchez was average at best for large parts of the regular season. I think Jets coach Rex Ryan may be in for some disappointment this year. Ravens in a low-scoring game.

Chargers at Chiefs: I love the Chiefs selecting Eric Berry with the fifth pick of this year's draft. Anyone who says safeties don't have enough of an effect on teams to go that high obviously haven't watched Troy Polamalu play recently. I think Kansas' D will be better this year, but they don't have the offensive weapons to keep pace with Philip Rivers and the Chargers high-powered offense. Chargers.

NFL Preview: Part 3

Top 5 non-playoff teams most likely to make the playoffs this year:

AFC:

Pittsburgh Steelers:

There are plenty of good reasons the Steelers won't make the playoffs this season:

1/ They are without their star quarterback, Ben Roethlisberger, for the first four games of the year.

2/ Once he returns, they face a brutal schedule, including games against the Saints, the Jets, the Ravens, the Bengals (twice), the Patriots.

3/ The AFC North is fast becoming the second toughest division in the NFL, behind only to the NFC East. Both the Ravens and the Bengals were pretty darn good last year, and both should be even better this year (Baltimore, with its host of new wide receivers, in particular).

However, one thing tells me that the Steelers can overcome all of this adversity: history.

The franchise hasn't missed the playoffs for two consecutive seasons since 1999 and 2000. They've played in the postseason six of the last nine years, and won two of the last five Superbowls.

Moreover, because of his off-season problems, Pittsburgh most important player, Roethlisberger, will be playing with a massive chip on his shoulder this season. Always known as a fiery competitor, he's going to want to win football games like never before in 2010. I imagine being booed in every stadium but Heinz Field will only add fuel to that fire.

Bottom Line: A decade of NFL success doesn't happen by accident. The Steelers are still one of the league's best organizations and will undoubtedly be in the playoff mix, at the very least, come late December, early January.

Houston Texans

The Texans haven't had a losing record since 2006. Despite that fact,the franchise (founded in 2002) has yet to play in a single postseason game. The primary reason? The Indianapolis Colts.

The Colts have had a stranglehold on the AFC South since its inception, also in 2002, winning the division six times in its eight year existence. Indianapolis has also battered Houston head-to-head during those years: they are 15-1 all-time against the Texans.

While the Colts are still favored to win the AFC South this season, the Texans should have a good shot at an AFC Wild card berth. Their passing game is in the league's top tier, they have a running back, Arian Foster, that many pundits are expecting to have a big year, and their defense has a number of exciting young players (Brian Cushing, DeMeco Ryans, Mario Williams, Amobi Okoye).

Bottom Line: If any NFL team is due a playoff appearance, it's the Texans. Of course that doesn't mean it will happen, but Houston come out losers in a lot of close games last year. Turn some of those into Ws and they should be in.

NFC

San Francisco 49ers:

The 49ers have timed their resurgence perfectly. With Kurt Warner too old (and retired) and Sam Bradford too young (and green), Alex Smith has a good chance to take San Francisco to a new level in the NFC West's power vacuum.

Both the Seahawks and the Rams seem on the road to losing seasons in 2010 and unless Derek Anderson can metamorphosis into the quarterback he was in 2007 (when he led the Browns to a 10-6 record and went to the Pro Bowl), the Cardinals could be too.

Meanwhile the 49ers have stockpiled a talented roster through a series of good drafts in the last five years. Last season, they started 3-1 and went 3-1 in their last four games on the way to a 8-8 record. Had it not been for a brutal October and early November (they went 1-5), they might well have been a playoff team.

The 49ers also went 5-1 against divisional foes last year, another factor that should be a boost to their playoff chances.

Bottom Line: A 9-7 season might well be enough to carry the division and, barring a Smith meltdown, San Francisco looks a good bet to post a winning record.

Atlanta Falcons

Like the Texans, the Falcons just missed out on the playoffs last season as they finished with a 9-7 record.

Atlanta has one the league's best young quarterbacks in Matt Ryan, as well as a number of other offensive weapons in running back Michael Turner, Hall of Fame-bound tight end Tony Gonzalez and Pro Bowl wideout Roddy White.

If Ryan can be a little more consistent and elevate his game when he plays top opponents (the Falcons only beat one playoff-bound team, the Jets, last year), Atlanta could lock up a wildcard berth, though challenging the Saints for the division is probably beyond the Falcons this season.

Bottom Line: It's a big year for Ryan. But with a two years of NFL experience under his belt, I expect him to produce a better body of work this season.

New York Giants

Halfway through October last season, the Giants were 5-0 and cruising. The wheels fell off after that, as they lost their next four games and eight of their final eleven.

The biggest problem for New York was their defense, which gave up 32.4 points a game in those final eleven games. Their once fearsome pass-rush became toothless and their secondary couldn't cover anyone.

I expect new defensive coordinator Perry Fewell (Bill Sheridan was fired after last year's debacle) to shore up the Giants' D. Free-agent safeties Antrel Rolle and Deon Grant and veteran linebacker Keith Bulluck were signed in the offseason to give the defense a bit more experience.

Although New York still looks thin at linebacker, they do have a lot of talented pass-rushers – Justin Tuck,Osi Umenyiora, Chris Canty, and first round draft pick Jason Pierre-Paul – who should play better this year now they're all back to full health.

Bottom Line: Because of all the Giants other failings, the fact that Eli Manning had his best ever regular season in 2009 fell under the radar a bit. He looked comfortable with both his receiving corps and O-line. If the defense can play just a bit better than last year (and that shouldn't be too difficult), Manning's play could take the Giants back to the postseason.

The five who'll miss out:

AFC:

-Cinncinati Bengals

-New England Patriots

NFC:

-Arizona Cardinals

-Philadelphia Eagles

-Minnesota Vikings

Thursday Night Prediction:

Vikings at Saints: Last January, these two teams played a tightly-contested NFC Championship game in the Superdome which the Saints won in overtime. The Vikings shot themselves in the foot in that game, fumbling the ball six times, three of which they lost, and throwing two interceptions.

While the offseason has been fairly quiet in New Orleans, Minnesota fell victim to the latest episode of the “will he, won't he Brett Favre retirement saga.” It appears Favre came as close as he has ever been to actually packing it in this time. Since his return, he lost his top receiver Sidney Rice to hip injury that will keep him out for half the year. Slot receiver Percy Harvin remains a question mark because of his chronic migraines.

I expect the Vikings to rely more heavily on running back Adrian Peterson this time around, if anything to prevent the still-not-100% Favre from taking too many sacks.

As for the Saints, they will probably try to establish the run early on, but if that doesn't work Drew Brees will be confident he can dominate the Vikings' secondary.

It appears to me that, barring a monster night for AP, the Saints should prevail in this one simply because the Vikings don't appear, at this moment, to be the force they were last year. Saints

NFL Preview: Part 2

Every season, fans of every NFL team hope that a couple of their new draft picks come in and shine immediately, win starting roles, and contribute heavily in their rookie seasons.

Of course, in reality, that doesn't happen. But while some teams have the luxury of giving their rookies time to develop and learn the system, others don't.

Here are my top 5 rookies most needed to perform in 2010 by their respective teams.

Top 5 rookies most needed to perform in 2010

Sam Bradford, QB, St Louis Rams

In all likelihood, the Rams will be the first NFL team to have a rookie quarterback start a game for them this season. And, depending on how Matt Moore plays in Carolina and how the Matt Leinart-Derek Anderson combo performs in Arizona, they may also be the only team to start a rookie QB in 2010.

The good news for St. Louis is that that quarterback is Sam Bradford, the number one overall pick of the 2010 draft who, when healthy, was a stud at Oklahoma. He has a strong arm, can make all the throws and most importantly, is an extremely accurate passer.

Moreover, so far, he has earned rave reviews in training camp. He was also stellar in his first preseason start, shredding the Patriots secondary for 189 yards and 2 touchdowns.

The bad news for St. Louis is that rookie quarterbacks historically struggle when thrust into a starting role early on. Those struggles are only intensified when the rookie has a weak supporting cast around him (just ask David Carr).

With an inexperienced offensive line and a poor receiving corps (made all the weaker after number one receiver Donnie Avery was lost for the season in the second preseason game with a knee injury), many Rams fans would probably just be happy if Bradford can make it through the season with his health and confidence intact.

Gerald McCoy, DT, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The 2009 Tampa Bay defensive line was just awful. The Bucs finished dead last in the NFL in run defense, allowing a whopping 158.2 yards per game on the ground.

Fixing that problem was the focus of the off-season for Tampa Bay and therefore they were delighted to have Gerald McCoy, a former high school All-American and five-star recruit, fall into their laps at the third overall pick.

McCoy, another Oklahoma grad, was a three-year starter in Norman who had his best year as a senior, amassing 15 ½ tackles for loss, and six sacks.

Now the Bucs desperately need McCoy, along with fellow rookie Brian Price out of UCLA, to plug running lanes in the Tampa 2 defense.

Easier said than done in the NFC South -- which features three teams that run the ball well: the Panthers, Saints, and Falcons – but for the Tampa Bay to have any kind of recovery season, McCoy will have to adapt quickly to shedding blockers much bigger and more wily than the ones he faced in college.

C.J. Spiller, RB, Buffalo Bills

The Bills have been desperate for a offensive play-maker for a good few seasons now. They even welcomed the T.O. Show to town in 2009 with hopes of giving the team a bit more pizazz, an experiment that failed miserably.

Buffalo's first pick in this year's draft was C.J. Spiller out of Clemson, the consensus best available running back in the draft, who clocked a 4.27 40 at the combine.

With Marshawn Lynch (a first-round pick in '07) and Fred Jackson already in the backfield, many questioned whether the Bills should have addressed their needs at quarterback or offensive line with their first pick.

However, the Bills seemed positively prescient when both Jackson and Lynch got hurt during the preseason. Spiller took full advantage of the extra reps, showing America his potential by scoring three touchdowns, including one of the most electrifying plays of the preseason: a 31-yard touchdown run where he made three Colts defenders miss.

With his speed, burst and moves, Spiller could add a home-run ability to Buffalo's running game which could kick start their sleeping offense.

Kyle Wilson, CB, New York Jets

How much Kyle Wilson, a late first round pick out of Boise State, will be needed depends greatly on whether the Jets All-World cornerback Darelle Revis continues his protracted holdout. But with September here and Revis still not in camp, Wilson may well be starting at cornerback Week 1 opposite Antonio Cromartie against the Ravens.

Pretty big shoes to fill for Wilson: replacing the best player on the best defense in the NFL last season.

Wilson has impressed during training camp and preseason, moving ahead of Dwight Lowery on the New York's cornerback depth chart: should Revis end his holdout, Wilson is expected to be penciled in as the team's starting nickel corner.

Like the rest of New York's secondary, Wilson will benefit from the pressure the Jets fearsome pass-rush puts on quarterbacks. Nonetheless, the Jets opponents will go after him early and often, taking their passing game to his side of the field to gauge how talented he really is.

He'll have to be ready.

Koa Misi, OLB, Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins' football team is pretty solid across the board without really excelling in particular area. In a division featuring two of the AFC's best teams, the Jets and the Patriots, being solid doesn't cut it.

One area the Dolphins really wanted to improve was their pass-rush to get after Tom Brady, Mark Sanchez and co. They threw their hat in with Koa Misi with the 40^th overall pick, a defensive lineman at Utah, who they plan to convert into a pass-rushing linebacker in their 3-4 defense.

Misi had 26 tackles for loss and 10.5 sacks over the course of his college career and the Dolphins liked his versatility and athleticism for their D.

So far, Misi has practiced almost exclusively with the first team throughout training camp and got all three preseason starts. His performances so far have not blown anyone away, however, and he was demoted to the second team at a recent practice.

But Miami needs linebackers who can get after the quarterback in their defensive scheme and because they don't have many others on their roster, they just might have to stick with Misi in their starting lineup as he gets used to the pace of the NFL.

What other rookies are going to be greatly needed by their teams this season? Chime in.