Jan 15, 2010

Picking NFL Divisional Games

-How I did last weekend: 1-3

Not bad picks last weekend really, though the Bengals were an awful choice. I don't think many people predicted the Patriots shooting themselves in the foot quite as dramatically as they did. And the Green Bay-Arizona game...Could have gone either way.

-Playoff record: 1-3

Cardinals at Saints: Here we are again, another Cardinals team that was so inconsistent in the regular season turns to gold in the playoffs....Groundhog's day anyone?

Kurt Warner was awesome against Green Bay, and the Saints secondary shouldn't scare him too much.

The real key to this one is whether Drew Brees can get his offense ticking again. The Saints offense has been pedestrian of late compared to what we know it can be. If he continues to struggle to click with his receivers, and the Cardinals defense (which, by the way, is no juggernaut itself) get a few stops, Arizona may be able to pull away.

Finally a mention of what would potentially be the best storyline of the weekend. Deuce McAllister, a fan favorite in New Orleans during the seven seasons he spent there as a running back, has watched football from his living room couch all season after the Saints released him this off-season. Now, due to injury concerns, he's been re-signed and will take the field against the Cardinals. You'd have to be a pretty cold-hearted individual to not be pulling for him at least a little bit on Saturday.

The Saints have all the talent in the world, but the Cardinals have all the intangibles on their side. They have been here before, and they've created something of a playoff aura around themselves. I'm done betting against them. Cardinals.

Ravens at Colts: The Colts have been focusing on this game since Jim Caldwell decided it wasn't worth risking the starters' fitness to go for the perfect season. Well, they'll need all of that focus if the Baltimore D plays like it did against New England.

Ray Lewis had certainly marshaled his defensive troops superbly in that game: they caused four Patriot turnovers, and pressured Tom Brady all game. But shutting down a 'Wes-Welkerless' Patriots offense is an entirely different proposition from getting to MVP Peyton Manning and stopping him.

The Ravens simply have too many offensive frailties to win another playoff game: the team has been carrying quarterback Joe Flacco of late rather than the other way round.

Nonetheless the Patriots only squeaked by the Ravens in low scoring game when they met in the regular season, so expect another close one. Colts.

Cowboys at Vikings: Sure, Brett Favre likes playing football; loves it in fact. But make no mistake about it, the reason he put his 40 year-old body through another full regular season was for another shot at the postseason. And guess what, the Vikings organization brought him in specifically because they believed he would give them a better chance in the playoffs, not because they were enamored with the feel-good story of another Favre comeback. That makes this an awfully big game for the gray-haired gunslinger from Mississippi.

Across from him, he finds a Cowboys defense that has only given up 31 points in its last four games. They can rush the passer with DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer and their secondary is developing into a nasty, scrappy little unit.

The Vikings love playing at home, they are 8-0 this season and outscored opponents 262-124, but the Cowboys provide by far the biggest test to their Metrodome dominance.

A blowout of the hapless Giants doesn't conceal the fact that Minnesota had cooled in the final few weeks of year, just as Dallas was beginning to hit its stride. Cowboys.

Jets at Chargers: It's strength on strength as the Chargers high-octane passing offense takes on the Jets defense; number one in the league both against the pass and overall. Put it this way, if you're not excited about watching San Diego's pro bowl wide receiver Vincent Jackson take on the Jets shutdown corner Darrelle Revis on Sunday, then you don't like football that much....

The Chargers haven't lost a game since mid-October and were the hottest team entering the playoffs. However the Jets' D should make this a close game. If they can make plays and keep Philip Rivers out of rhythm, they have the running game to keep him off the field and chew up the clock.

Nonetheless, I don't see Mark Sanchez mustering another performance like last week's (when he went an error-free 12 of 15 for 182 yards), because the Chargers will get far more pressure on him than the Bengals managed. Expect Antonio Cromartie and Quentin Jammer, San Diego's experienced corners, to get more of opportunities to make plays against the rookie thanks to that pressure.

It's the playoffs and the Jets definitely have some the ingredients needed to knock the Chargers off, but San Diego is a tough team to pick against. Chargers.

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