Picking Superbowl XLIV

-How I did last weekend (or two weeks ago if you're counting): 2-0

Finally a good playoff week, though Favre and the Vikings almost ruined it for me

-Records in the playoffs: 4-6

One Superbowl pick away from slightly-below-average postseason.

Saints vs. Colts: Almost five months after the season's first regular season game we finally get to the big one, the Superbowl, and honestly we could not have hoped for a better match-up. Throughout the 2009 season, the Colts and Saints have been consistently been the best teams in their respective conferences.

The Saints came out of the gates faster, blowing away the Eagles, the Jets, the Giants and the Patriots before we even got to December. In their final five games, they cooled off, going 2-3 and barely beating the Bucs and Falcons. In truth, they looked like a vulnerable number one seed heading into the playoffs. The Cowboys, the Packers, and the Vikings all looked like they had more momentum. However, the Saints outlasted all of them in the postseason, and though Brett Favre back in the Superbowl would have been a great story, New Orleans finally making it is an even better one.

The Colts did not have the explosive or emphatic wins early in their season but got our attention just because they consistently kept winning. Despite a number of tough match-ups including games against the Ravens, Patriots, Texans (twice) and Broncos, they were 14-0 with two weeks left and most likely would have gone undefeated had Jim Caldwell not decided to rest his starters with the number 1 seed locked up. Two comfortable postseason wins later, here they are in the Superbowl once again.

Everyone is expecting a offensive shoot-out on Sunday and though I think we shouldn't expect either team to score less than 20 points, talk of breaking the highest-scoring Superbowl record is maybe taking things too far. Neither team is known for its defense but in games like these, defenses can usually come up with at least a few stops and maybe a turnover or two.

A lot of focus this week has centered around the Colts elite pass-rusher Dwight Freeney's damaged ankle, and how much of a factor he can be in Sunday's game. Without Freeney, some analysts are saying, the Colts are going to struggle to get to Drew Brees. No pressure will mean Brees and his stable of receivers will have their way with the Colts secondary.

My gut tells me that the two weeks off will have allowed Freeney to heal up enough to at least partake in some obvious passing situations. How explosive his ankle allows him to be is what everyone will be watching for the first time he takes the field.

The Saints pass-rush, on the other hand, was fearsome against the Vikings in the NFC championship game, hitting Favre repeatedly and leaving him battered and bruised (even though they didn't sack him). Then again, Peyton Manning is the best in the league when it comes to avoiding contact and not taking sacks. We saw against the Jets how, through completions, he can take the sting out of a pass-rush. Wouldn't be surprised if it happened again against New Orleans.

Ultimately, I think the game is going to come down which offense executes better (cliché alert, but doesn't mean it's not true) and gets into a better rhythm. And that's why I'm going with the Colts here. Having watched both teams all season, I have to say that while the Colts occasionally get cold and Manning isn't immune to throwing picks, they are far more consistent in moving the ball on offense. The Saints do have the capacity to light up a game with big plays and look completely unstoppable, but they also can get into ruts. Just look at their game against the Vikings, they gained only 65 yards of offense in the entire second half and converted 3 out of 12 third downs.

With or without Dwight Freeney, I think the Colts defense will be able to generate more stops than the Saints defense and barring turnovers completely altering the face of the game, that should be enough for Peyton Manning to win his second Superbowl.

Colts: 31 Saints: 24