Picking NFL Divisional Weekend

How I did last week: 1-3

Burned by Marshawn Lynch’s long run, a late Jets drive, and Tramon Williams’ leap.

Record on the playoffs: 1-3

Gotta pull off a winning record this weekend to enhance my playoff reputation.

Ravens at Steelers: When two defensive-minded teams that hate each other face off in the playoffs, you can usually expect a pretty good show. But when the two teams are as evenly matched as the Steelers and Ravens are, you can expect a nailbiter.

These two teams don’t do blowouts of each other: both of their games this season (and last season as well) were decided by a field goal. Neither team scored over 17 points in either matchup. Both games basically came down to a single remarkable play at the death: Joe Flacco 18-yard TD strike to T.J. Houshmandzadeh in the first, Troy Polamalu sack/forced fumble in the second.

And, most likely, the same will apply Saturday.

One nugget of information swung my pick here. Ben Roethlisberger didn’t play in either of Pittsburgh’s last two losses to Baltimore. So with Big Ben under center and the Heinz Field faithful in full voice, the slight edge goes to the Steel City.

Steelers.

Packers at Falcons: If there’s one man feeling a little bit of extra pressure Saturday, it’ll be Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan. We all know the kid can play, is superb in the Georgia Dome, and has a playoff-caliber nickname (kind of): “Matty Ice.” But until he gets that first playoff victory under his belt, there’s bound to be some extra nervousness in him.

He’ll face a tough passing defense from Green Bay, which isn’t opposed to trying to slow a passing game with some discreet grabbing or holding of opposing receivers. As in their first meeting (won by Atlanta on a late field goal), Falcons coach Mike Smith will try and punish Green Bay by giving Michael Turner a lot of carries, something the Pack didn’t really have an answer for last time around.

However, the Packers have been very sharp the last three weeks and seemed to discover a new facet to their offense in rookie running back James Starks. If Starks can get moving again, Aaron Rodgers will see a lot more open receivers.

Can’t see this game not being extremely close, but in the end, the Packers extra playoff pedigree will put them on top.

Packers.

Seahawks at Bears: Seattle pulled off the upset of wildcard weekend by knocking off the defending Superbowl champ Saints at Qwest Field. But two of the biggest things going for the ‘Hawks in that game, the element of surprise and raucous hometown support, won’t be there this time around.

As we saw last week, the Seahawks defense isn’t strong enough to hold any playoff-caliber team to under 24 points, so for Seattle to win they’ll have to have another explosion of points on offense. And as the Bears have the league’s second best run defense, the Seahawks most likely won’t get much help from their running game, putting a lot of weight on Matt Hasselbeck’s shoulders to repeat his performance against New Orleans.

The Bears have been solid rather than great for most of the year: they aren’t particularly special in any one area of the game. They are better than Seattle though but won’t underestimate them as the Saints did.

Chicago’s offensive line was a major weakness earlier in the season when the Seahawks beat them at Soldier Field. Jay Cutler took six sacks in that game, but the line has improved over the last half of the season.

As much as I’d like to be the one renegade to pick the Seahawks to pull off another huge upset, barring the Bears O-line falling apart again, I just can’t see it happening. Bears.

Jets at Patriots: New England laid an oldschool a**whuppin’ on New York last time these two teams met at Foxboro, crushing them 45-3 in early December. And as much as Rex Ryan has had to say since that happened, the chances of the Jets finding a way to beat Tom Brady in his own backyard Sunday seem very slim to most onlookers.

For the improbable to happen, the Jets will have to find a way to score points, lots of points. New England hasn’t been held to under 31 points since their Week 9 loss to Cleveland. That means New York running game will have to be a big factor in this one, not only in churning out first downs but in keeping the high-octane New England offense on the sideline. Perhaps even more vitally, Mark Sanchez is going to have to produce a performance far superior to anything we have seen from him recently.

On the other side of the field, New England will be well rested, but not rusty, because if anyone can get the most for his team out of a bye week, it’s Bill Belichick. You can be sure that Brady and the rest of Pats are fully aware of everything Ryan has been saying about them to the press, and they won’t be satisfied by anything but another blowout victory.

Closer than last time? Sure. Close enough for the Jets to squeak a victory? I wouldn’t count on it.

Patriots.