Sep 10, 2010

Picking NFL Week 1

Raiders at Titans: For the first time in a while, the Raiders made a series of very smart off-season moves. They cut JaMarcus Russell (which made me happy simply because I was getting sick of bashing the guy), drafted stud linebacker Rolando McClain and made some signings to bolster their run defense in defensive tackle John Henderson and outside linebackers Kamerion Wimbley and Quentin Groves. Well, if they want to start stopping the run, playing against the NFL's best running back is certainly a good first test. Titans.

Panthers at Giants: Most casual NFL fans probably don't remember what happened last time these two teams played. But I guarantee the Giants do. The G-men were humiliated 45-9 by Carolina two days after Christmas last year. Jonathan Stewart rushed for over 200 yards in that game, and New York's number one goal will be to stop the Panthers running game on Sunday. If they can do that, Eli Manning should be able to dissect Carolina's defense, given the lack of a threatening Panthers pass-rush. Giants.

Colts at Texans: The Texans want to beat the Colts. Really, really badly. We all know the stats on this one. They are 1-15 all-time against Peyton Manning and co. They haven't forgotten the 20-7 halftime lead they blew at Reliant Stadium last season. Or the 42-yard missed field goal that prevented them from forcing overtime at Lucas Oil Stadium in the return match-up. But the Texans lost their best cornerback, Dunta Robinson, to free agency this off-season. Peyton will like the sound of that. Colts.

Broncos at Jaguars: The Broncos have been taking a beating with prognosticators lately after a spate of injuries and poor preseason showings. But they still have more of a solid squad than the Jaguars. Moreover, by all accounts, Kyle Orton appeared far more comfortable in the McDaniels' offense this season. Broncos.

Falcons at Steelers: Into the fire goes Dennis Dixon, a third year pro with only one NFL start to his name, against Atlanta. He didn't play exactly the way the Steelers wanted him to this preseason but they love his mobility in and out of the pocket. The Steelers defense should give Matt Ryan plenty of problems, but, in the end, Dixon's inexperience costs them the win. Falcons.

Dolphins at Bills: C.J. Spiller looked like a star in the making this preseason. Unfortunately, there isn't much strength around him. Miami will focus on shutting him down and allowing Trent Edwards to make some mistakes, something history suggests is quite likely to happen. Dolphins.

Lions at Bears: I like the way GM Martin Mayhew and head coach Jim Schwartz are rebuilding the Lions. I can't wait to see Ndamukong Suh take the field and get into opposition backfields. I also think Matthew Stafford will be much better this year. However, I still have a lot of faith in Jay Cutler and he'll surely be aware that this is a make-or-break year in his professional career. Bears.

Bengals at Patriots: The big question surrounding the Patriots is their defense. They gave up a ton of yards this preseason, and haven't been able to get to the quarterback for a while now. The Bengals strong running game with Cedric Benson should allow them to keep Tom Brady off the field for big chunks of the game, and that's never good news in New England. Bengals.

Browns at Buccaneers: The Browns gambled big on Jake Delhomme this off-season, and it might not be a bad play as Delhomme looked like he still had a season or two left in him during the preseason games. His experience may be very important to this up-and-coming team. Browns.

49ers at Seahawks: If the 49ers want to stake their claim to being the best in the NFC West, losing to the Seahawks in their opener would pretty much be the worst imaginable start. The 49ers defense should be able to smother most of what the Hawks can produce offensively: Seattle's O-line is weak (no first-round pick tackle Russell Okung in this one) and their receiving corp is paper thin. That means that Alex Smith will only have to be solid, not spectacular, to win this game for San Francisco. He has appeared more than capable of that this preseason. 49ers.

Packers at Eagles: I didn't watch that many preseason games, but one I did catch was the Green Bay-Indianapolis Colts match-up. I was quite simply blown away with how effectively Aaron Rodgers ran the offense in the few possessions he played. I like Green Bay a lot this season: I like them to win the NFC North and I think they could go deep into the postseason. They'll be too much to handle for an Eagles team debuting a new quarterback. Packers.

Cardinals at Rams: There are definitely tougher secondaries in the league that Sam Bradford could be facing in his regular season debut, but the number one overall pick is still bound to have some early jitters. The key to the game will be how Bradford deals with all the early pressure Arizona is bound to throw at him and his poor offensive line. Cardinals.

Cowboys at Redskins: Man, did Tony Romo stink bad this preseason. But I'm calling smokescreen/ indifference on his part. Once the lights go on on Sunday night, he will be sharp. I'd bet money on it. Meanwhile part of the reason Donovan McNabb isn't with the Eagles anymore was how he performed against the Cowboys in what turned out to be the last two games of his career in Philadelphia. Cowboys.

Ravens at Jets: One of most mouth-watering match-ups of the first week. The Ravens addressed their biggest weakness – the receiving corps – in spades during the off-season. In come Anquan Boldin, Donte Stallworth, Ed Dickson, Dennis Pitta and just a few days ago, T.J. Houshmandzadeh adding to Joe Flacco's favorite target last season, running back Ray Rice. As we saw on “Hard Knocks”, the Jets have both plenty of confidence and expectations heading into the season. But their offense sputtered in the preseason, and I think people too quickly forgot, in the midst of their 2009 postseason run, that Mark Sanchez was average at best for large parts of the regular season. I think Jets coach Rex Ryan may be in for some disappointment this year. Ravens in a low-scoring game.

Chargers at Chiefs: I love the Chiefs selecting Eric Berry with the fifth pick of this year's draft. Anyone who says safeties don't have enough of an effect on teams to go that high obviously haven't watched Troy Polamalu play recently. I think Kansas' D will be better this year, but they don't have the offensive weapons to keep pace with Philip Rivers and the Chargers high-powered offense. Chargers.

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