Picking NFL Week 3

How I did last week: 10-6

The 2009 Cincinnati Bengals. I'll settle for that, though I've been kicking myself all week for not going with my gut and picking the Bears upset of the Cowboys like I wanted to.

Record on the season: 18-14

Pulling into the black.

Bills at Patriots: The Texans already got their longtime monkey, the Colts, off their back this season, but the Bills seem to be a million miles away from overcoming their own personal divisional nemesis, the Pats, who they have lost 13 straight to. Maybe C.J. Spiller has a breakout game, maybe Patrick Chung and the frustrated Donte Whitner each pick off a Tom Brady pass leading to the Bills pulling off a tremendous upset. But at Gillette Stadium, where New England hasn't lost a regular season game since November 2008... I wouldn't bet on it. Patriots.

49ers at Chiefs: Heartbreaking. That's the only way I can describe San Francisco's loss to the defending Superbowl champs Monday night on a last second field goal. However, turnovers aside, the Niners proved they could move the ball on offense and score touchdowns against the Saints, something that the Chiefs, despite being 2-0, has struggled with so far (two offensive touchdowns in two games). I still like San Francisco to win the NFC West (also known as the NFL's worst division by a country mile) but they can't afford to fall to 0-3. 49ers in a defense-dominated battle.

Titans at Giants: The Giants couldn't stop the Colts from running the ball on them last Sunday. This week they welcome Chris Johnson, who now needs 166 rushing yards per game to reach his 2,500 yard goal. New York will load the box to stop CJ2K and that will allow Vince Young to kickstart Tennessee's anemic passing game. Titans.

Browns at Ravens: Joe Flacco may have had his worst outing as a pro last week (17 of 39 passes completed and 4 interceptions), but unless he decides Sunday morning to throw all his passes left-handed, I wouldn't even contemplate picking the Browns (who've lost to both the Bucs and Chiefs so far) to win in Baltimore. Ravens.

Bengals at Panthers: If there's one team that I've proved entirely incapable of deciphering during my time as an NFL progniscator, it's the Cincinnati Bengals. I underestimated them at the start of last season, then overestimated them in the season's last few weeks and playoffs. Nothing's changed in 2010: I'm 0-2 on Bengals picks. That's why it worries me that this pick seems so cut and dry. The Panthers are 0-2, haven't been able to run the ball this season, and are giving a rookie quarterback, Jimmy Clausen, his first NFL start. Cincinnati should devour them. Bengals.

Steelers at Buccaneers: If Josh Freeman wants to prove to the world that he can continue to play mistake-free ball (he has a 95 passer rating through two games), then doing so against a defense that's forced 10 turnovers in two games would be a great place to start. Tampa Bay's improved defense shouldn't give up too many points to Charlie Batch, but Pittsburgh's D will keep them on the field for much longer that they'd like. Steelers.

Falcons at Saints: Atlanta is probably the only team that could challenge New Orleans' dominance of NFC South this season, and beating the Saints in the Superdome would certainly send out a strong message that the divisional race is on. But until Matt Ryan shows a little more clutch in one of these big games, I refuse to pick the Falcons to win. Come on, Matty Ice, live up to that nickname and prove me wrong! Saints.

Lions at Vikings: I'll give you one more chance Mr. Favre. Vikings.

Cowboys at Texans: For the second straight game, Tony Romo will pass for over 300 yards in a Cowboys' loss. Why? Because Dallas can't run the ball, Houston's explosive offense can score points in bunches and, most importantly, the Texans have newfound belief in themselves. Texans.

Eagles at Jaguars: The total about-face of Philadelphia head coach Andy Reid (usually legendary for his stubbornness) with regards to the Eagles quarterback controversy (documented adeptly here by SI.com's Peter King), should tell you one thing. Michael Vick's performances on the last two Sundays weren't flukes. Reid must believe that Vick can get back to the level he was performing at prior to his run-in with the law. If you believe in Vick's supposed maturation process, perhaps even better. Either way, he should be able to rain points on Jacksonville. Eagles.

Redskins at Rams: The two happiest men that the Redskins front office moved for Donovan McNabb this offseason? Tight end Chris Cooley and receiver Santana Moss. McNabb's passing ability has given new life to both Moss, who has 16 catches for 166 yards through two games, and Cooley, who is averaging 72 receiving yards per game and 16 yards per catch (both career highs by some distance). Redskins.

Colts at Broncos: A tragedy in Denver this past week reminded us of the over-the-top importance that as a society we attach (thanks in part to columns like this one) to what is ultimately just a game. In light of Kenny McKinley's death, a player who couldn't imagine a life without football, any attempt to try and analyze this matchup seems a little too frivolous. Colts.

Raiders at Cardinals: A game both teams will really want, given that the loser could be staring 1-4 square in the face (Raiders play Chargers and Texans in Week 3 and 4, while Cardinals play the Saints and the Chargers). Aside from both squeaking past the Rams, neither team has shown us much this season, so I'll go with the home team. Cardinals.

Chargers at Seahawks: So which one is the real Seahawks team? The one that blew out San Francisco in Week 1 or the one that committed three turnovers and gave up 17 unanswered points in the first half to Denver in Week 2? History suggests the latter, and I'm inclined to agree. Chargers.

Jets at Dolphins: There are a lot of factors in Miami's favor for this matchup. They beat the Jets twice last season, they're playing at home, and they're full of confidence coming off back-to-back wins. However, in New York's impressive fightback against New England last week (sans Darelle Revis), I saw a glimpse of the team Rex Ryan has been talking about to anyone who would listen for the last six months. Jets.

Packers at Bears: Games played on Monday nights always seem to be closer than you'd thought they'd be. I think Chicago, in front of its home fans, gives the Pack a hard-fought, close game. Ultimately, however, this will also be the game where the Bears finally face the music for their disaster of an offensive line. Packers.