Picking NFL Week 5

How I did last week: 7-7

On the first week I felt really confident in my picks too...

Record on the season: 35-27

Not numbers I'm proud of. But I'm staying positive. It's only Week 5.

Bears at Panthers: I guess Chicago backup QB Todd Collins is next in line for suicide by Bears offensive line. Keep that arm warm, third-stringer Caleb Hanie, you could literally be needed at any minute. Say what you will about Jay Cutler (and plenty of people do just that), but there is significant drop-off when Collins takes over from him. As long as the Panthers can keep former Carolina defensive end Julius Peppers from teeing off on rookie quarterback Jimmy Clausen too many times, I like them to pull off the upset here. Panthers.

Buccaneers at Bengals: Want a reason the Bengals are only 2-2 this season? Carson Palmer might be the obvious answer, but don't ignore Cincinnati running game struggles. The Bengals have averaged a paltry 3.3 yards a carry in 2010 (tied for 27^th in the NFL). Their winning record last year started with Cedric Benson's breakout season. He's due his first 100+ yard rushing day this season. Bengals.

Rams at Lions: Interesting matchup between two teams clearly on the rise (yes, I know the Lions are 0-4, but look at the teams they've faced. Without their young franchise QB no less. Trust me, they're making their move soon). Bradford has been as advertised for the Rams but the real surprise has been the transformation of the St. Louis defense into a unit that has allowed only 13 points per game (down from 27.2 last year). Meanwhile the Lions new look defense has not gelled yet: it's given up 26.5 points per game. Still, I see the experience of Detroit veteran quarterback Shaun Hill (who passed for almost twice as many yards as Aaron Rodgers when they faced off last week) paying off in this one. Lions.

Giants at Texans: The final score between the Giants and the Bears last Sunday indicated a bit of a rout. However, what sticks in my mind was New York's offense managing to score only three points in the first half while its defense was going into feeding-frenzy mode (9 first half sacks) against Chicago's porous offensive line. Only after the Bears' defense wore down did New York bag a couple touchdowns. That won't be enough to keep pace with the league's number two offense. Texans.

Broncos at Ravens: Big wins last Sunday for both these franchises. Joe Flacco seems to have put his horrendous second week outing behind him with a couple of efficient performances while the Ravens defense is statistically the NFL's best through four weeks. The Broncos are good enough to make a game of this one, but they aren't good enough to win it in Baltimore. Ravens.

Falcons at Browns: How do you not love Peyton Hillis, the Browns 24 year-old running back out of Arkansas, who runs with very little concern for either his body or the bodies of others? His running style – likened by numerous media outlets to a human battering ram – most likely won't afford him a long NFL career but it'll be fun to watch while it lasts. Falcons.

Chiefs at Colts: Any Chiefs fans out there who read these picks must really really hate me. I've picked against them three times this season, and they're 3-0 (on the other hand, maybe my negative picks are a good luck charm). And the madness continues this week. Apologies Kansas City, but believe it or not, the Colts, at 2-2, need this one more than you do. Colts.

Jaguars at Bills: The 'who cares?' game of the week. Maybe of the season. In fairness to Jacksonville, they've beaten two decent teams this year (Broncos and Colts) while the Bills' greatest achievement so far was probably losing by only eight points away to the Patriots. Jaguars.

Packers at Redskins: Sometimes it's the picks where a mismatch seems so obvious that lead you astray. For example: the Redskins have the second worst pass defense in the league while Green Bay have a scary good passer and one of the best receiving corps in the NFL. No-brainer, right? Now watch the Redskins ruin my Sunday. Packers.

Saints at Cardinals: Cardinals rookie quarterback Max Hall will have a shot at a fairytale first NFL start because every game the 'not-yet-rolling' Saints have played in this season has been close. But after making a big mistake in the fourth quarter, he'll trudge off the field disgusted, as the announcers bemoan what might have been. Saints.

Titans at Cowboys: Dallas has had two weeks to savor its win over in-state rivals Houston and prepare for this game against Tennessee. I'm chalking up the Cowboys' 0-2 start as fluke because I still think they have the roster be the cream of the crop of the NFC East this season (though that doesn't mean what it used to). Cowboys.

Chargers at Raiders: Call this a leap of faith, because the Chargers are 0-2 away from Qualcomm Stadium this year. But I just can't see a Raiders defense that has allowed an average of 26.8 points per game coming up with enough stops to slow Philip Rivers down. Chargers.

Eagles at 49ers: Kevin Kolb looked like a deer in the headlights last Sunday, almost too aware of potential pressure: constantly checking down or scrambling out the pocket too quickly. That's not going to beat many NFL-caliber defenses. With LeSean McCoy also not at full strength, the Eagles will struggle to move the ball on Patrick Willis and co. The Niners gave the Saints a great game at Candlestick in a showcase game and, at 0-4, they'll be blazing for this one too. 49ers

Vikings at Jets: The Randy Moss trade back to Minnesota has been the storyline in the NFL this week. He'll be facing Darrelle Revis once again, who left the game with a sore hammy the last time the two were matched up. Moss will be a blessing for Favre eventually but you can't expect them to have a Favre-Sidney Rice rapport in their first game together, especially when facing the Jets suffocating defense. Jets.