Picking NFL Week 7

How I did last week: 9-5

Definitely what I would call a bounce-back week. My “not-overthinking it” tactic is going swimmingly.

Record on the season: 50-40

Well, it's better than 50 percent...

Jaguars at Chiefs: Believe it or not, but I haven't picked the Chiefs to win any of their five games this season (they're 3-2, by the way). So why would I buck that trend now, with the Chiefs coming off a two game losing streak? Well, they were one offensive pass-interference call away from beating the Texans last week, and they held Peyton Manning without a touchdown for three quarters the week before. The concept of a 'quality loss' may be a little ridiculous, but call me a believer. Chiefs.

Eagles at Titans: A true test for Kevin Kolb: a game against the Titans nasty, scrappy defense and without deep-threat DeSean Jackson to boot. On the other side of the ball, Chris Johnson could thrive a defense that doesn't defend the run, and a secondary that doesn't tackle, very well. Titans.

Bills at Ravens: Any team playing against the Bills right now is pretty much guaranteed to be my lock of week. And given that the Ravens are a top-10 (you could make a persuasive argument for top-5) team this season and playing at home, not much discussion necessary here. Ravens.

Browns at Saints: After three average performances in a row, the Saints bounced back last Sunday throttling the Bucs 31-6. If Chris Ivory is more than a one-week flash in the pan, New Orleans should now have a strong running game to complement and improve its passing game. And that's what made them so good last year. Saints.

Redskins at Bears: Redskins defensive end Brian Orakpo terrifies even good offensive lines (I think I saw at least five called or uncalled holds on him when Washington played Green Bay a couple weeks ago). Along with Lorenzo Alexander and the rest of the Redskins pass-rushers, Orakpo will be licking his chops at the prospect of facing the Bears poor O-line. But if Washington couldn't stop Joseph Addai and the Colts running game last week, Matt Forte may be the difference maker for Chicago one again. Bears.

Bengals at Falcons: The Bengals are fresh, coming off a bye week, but unless they start getting better production out of Carson Palmer and its defense (which has been poor at defending the run and pressuring the passer) it might not matter. Falcons.

Steelers at Dolphins: With Big Ben back and the defense showing no signs of letting up, it's getting awfully hard to pick against Pittsburgh. Steelers.

49ers at Panthers: If San Francisco wants to get its season back on track – and, a little surprisingly, there a lot of people who think it's not too late – losing this game is not an option. 49ers.

Rams at Buccaneers: There may not be a ton of star-power in this one, but it's an interesting matchup between two of the upstart teams in the league this year, and two promising young quarterbacks. Not much to pick between the teams, but St. Louis' defense is a little better than Tampa Bay's. Rams.

Cardinals at Seahawks: A few things I like about the Seahawks this season: a/ Marshawn Lynch is a great addition to their backfield (taking the role Pete Carroll initially wanted LenDale White to fill this summer) b/ Matt Hasselbeck thinking he's back in 2005 c/ their defense finally stiffening up a little. The 'Hawks are finally giving those rabid Qwest Field fans something to cheer about. Seahawks.

Patriots at Chargers: Work this one out if you can: the Chargers are number one in the league in total offense and passing offense. That good, right? They're also ranked first in the league in total defense and pass defense. Well, that's excellent. Their record on the season? 2-4. And it's only going to get worse Sunday against New England, the only NFL team that is averaging over 30 points a game. Patriots.

Raiders at Broncos: $1000 right now to name the NFL's current leading receiver (in yards). Bet you can't do it. No it's not Andre or Calvin Johnson, Miles Austin, or Reggie Wayne. Try Brandon Lloyd, the 8^th year pro, who's played for four franchises and is anything but a household name. He has 663 receiving yards this season (61 more than second-placed Reggie Wayne). Without taking any credit away from Lloyd, that should give you some idea of how well Kyle Orton is throwing the football right now. Broncos.

Vikings at Packers: Last season, Brett Favre saved his best for games against his old employers. He'll want to be just as stellar in his second return to Lambeau. If they were fully healthy, I would pick the Packers because they have a better, younger team. But the Green Bay is one of the league's most injury-decimated franchises right now, and it's been showing the last three weeks. Vikings.

Giants at Cowboys: Home and away the Cowboys just haven't been able to pull it together this season. When I watch them play, I see an extremely talented roster with very little discipline. Patrick Crayton confirmed my suspicions this week. A couple more losses – and the hot Giants who've shored up their defense in recent weeks should be more than capable of delivering one– and Wade Phillips will be history. Giants.